Especially given our recent performance against Arkansas, there has been some debate over whether Armstrong was a good hire.
A number of posters have indicated that our defense under Armstrong is a significant improvement over last year's defense under Toney. The main support for this claim appears to be that our defense's current rankings vs. end of the year rankings last year.
2023 (Armstrong) Total Def: 44th overall (350.4 yds/game) Scoring Def: 61st in scoring defense (24.67 pts/gm);
2022 (Toney) Total Def: 103rd (415.8 yds/gm) Scoring Def: 28.8 pts/gm (91st overall).
Certainly, looking at the numbers, that would seem to be pretty definitive. However, we have yet to face 3 of the top 4-5 offenses we will face this season. Also, others have pointed out that since the season isn't over, our cupcake games are a larger proportion of our season to date compared to last season overall.
So, let's, as best we can, compare apples to apples. We have played 6 teams this year that we also played last year. If Armstrong is a significant improvement over Toney, that should reflect in how the defense performed over those 6 games. Here are the numbers:
2022 Utah - 26 points; 446 yards
2023 Utah - 24 points; 270 yards
2022 Kentucky - 26 pts, 272 yds
2023 Kentucky - 33 pts, 398 yds
2022 Tennessee: 38 pts, 576 yds
2023 Tennessee: 16 pts, 387 yds
2022 South Carolina: 6 pts, 237 yds
2023 South Carolina: 39 pts, 465 yds
2022 Vandy: 31 pts, 283 yds
2023 Vandy: 14 pts, 344 yds
2022 Georgia: 42 pts, 555 yds
2023 Georgia: 43 pts, 486 yds
2022 Totals: 169 pts ; 2,369 yds (394.83 yds/ gm)
2023 Totals: 169 pts ; 2,350 yds (391.67 yds/gm)
So over 6 games against teams we played this year and last, we have not given up 1 less point than last years team.
Over 6 games, we have given up 3.16 yards fewer per game (about a 1% improvement).
For the benefit of the doubt, I'll give Armstrong an extra 3 points to account for Toney having 1 more home game among the shared opponents. (6 point swing, divided by 2 to account for home field benefiting both offense and defense).
However, if you adjust for scores that happened when our defense was not on the field - 2022 Florida gave up 2 TDs (UK & Vandy) [14 pts] and 2023 Florida gave up 2 safeties (USC & UGA) [4 pts]
With those adjustments, Toney's defense gave up 25.8 points/game and Armstrong's has given up 27 pts/game.
But maybe we got more turnovers this year, right? Armstrong plays an aggressive defense that should lead to increase turnovers and momentum shifts. An increase in turnovers could mean a better defense, even if the other numbers are roughly the same.
Total Forced Turnovers:
2022: 12
2023: 4
Not only did we force 3x as many turnovers last year over these 6 shared opponents, we forced more turnovers against EVERY shared opponent.
Finally, let's look at 3rd down success rate. How many times were the two defenses able to get off the field on third down?
2022 / 2023
Utah 8-13 3-13
UK 4-13 1-8
UT 6-9 8-15
UGA 6-12 6-12
USCe 3-11 5-10
Vandy 7-14 1-10
Total 34-72 (47.2%) 24-68 (35.3%)
Somewhat ironically, Toney's offense, which seemed to emphasize more coverage and containment, was significantly worse at preventing 3rd down conversions, but accumulated numerous turnovers, whereas Armstong's defense, which is supposed to be attacking, has been better at preventing 3rd downs, but woeful at generating turnovers.
Ultimately the comparison looks like this
Over 6 shared opponents, the PPG & YPG have been remarkably similar, with Toney having a small point advantage and Armstrong having a small yardage advantage, but neither is notably better than the other in either category.
On getting off the field, Toney has a significant forced turnover advantage, and Armstrong has a significant 3rd down advantage.
Anyway, is Armstrong an improvement over Toney? A downgrade? Essentially the same? I welcome your thoughts.
A number of posters have indicated that our defense under Armstrong is a significant improvement over last year's defense under Toney. The main support for this claim appears to be that our defense's current rankings vs. end of the year rankings last year.
2023 (Armstrong) Total Def: 44th overall (350.4 yds/game) Scoring Def: 61st in scoring defense (24.67 pts/gm);
2022 (Toney) Total Def: 103rd (415.8 yds/gm) Scoring Def: 28.8 pts/gm (91st overall).
Certainly, looking at the numbers, that would seem to be pretty definitive. However, we have yet to face 3 of the top 4-5 offenses we will face this season. Also, others have pointed out that since the season isn't over, our cupcake games are a larger proportion of our season to date compared to last season overall.
So, let's, as best we can, compare apples to apples. We have played 6 teams this year that we also played last year. If Armstrong is a significant improvement over Toney, that should reflect in how the defense performed over those 6 games. Here are the numbers:
2022 Utah - 26 points; 446 yards
2023 Utah - 24 points; 270 yards
2022 Kentucky - 26 pts, 272 yds
2023 Kentucky - 33 pts, 398 yds
2022 Tennessee: 38 pts, 576 yds
2023 Tennessee: 16 pts, 387 yds
2022 South Carolina: 6 pts, 237 yds
2023 South Carolina: 39 pts, 465 yds
2022 Vandy: 31 pts, 283 yds
2023 Vandy: 14 pts, 344 yds
2022 Georgia: 42 pts, 555 yds
2023 Georgia: 43 pts, 486 yds
2022 Totals: 169 pts ; 2,369 yds (394.83 yds/ gm)
2023 Totals: 169 pts ; 2,350 yds (391.67 yds/gm)
So over 6 games against teams we played this year and last, we have not given up 1 less point than last years team.
Over 6 games, we have given up 3.16 yards fewer per game (about a 1% improvement).
For the benefit of the doubt, I'll give Armstrong an extra 3 points to account for Toney having 1 more home game among the shared opponents. (6 point swing, divided by 2 to account for home field benefiting both offense and defense).
However, if you adjust for scores that happened when our defense was not on the field - 2022 Florida gave up 2 TDs (UK & Vandy) [14 pts] and 2023 Florida gave up 2 safeties (USC & UGA) [4 pts]
With those adjustments, Toney's defense gave up 25.8 points/game and Armstrong's has given up 27 pts/game.
But maybe we got more turnovers this year, right? Armstrong plays an aggressive defense that should lead to increase turnovers and momentum shifts. An increase in turnovers could mean a better defense, even if the other numbers are roughly the same.
2022 | 2023 | |
| Utah | 1 | 0 |
| Kentucky | 1 | 0 |
| Tennessee | 2 | 1 |
| Georgia | 3 | 0 |
| South Carolina | 3 | 2 |
| Vanderbilt | 2 | 1 |
Total Forced Turnovers:
2022: 12
2023: 4
Not only did we force 3x as many turnovers last year over these 6 shared opponents, we forced more turnovers against EVERY shared opponent.
Finally, let's look at 3rd down success rate. How many times were the two defenses able to get off the field on third down?
2022 / 2023
Utah 8-13 3-13
UK 4-13 1-8
UT 6-9 8-15
UGA 6-12 6-12
USCe 3-11 5-10
Vandy 7-14 1-10
Total 34-72 (47.2%) 24-68 (35.3%)
Somewhat ironically, Toney's offense, which seemed to emphasize more coverage and containment, was significantly worse at preventing 3rd down conversions, but accumulated numerous turnovers, whereas Armstong's defense, which is supposed to be attacking, has been better at preventing 3rd downs, but woeful at generating turnovers.
Ultimately the comparison looks like this
Toney | Armstrong | |
| Points/Game | 25.83 | 27 |
| Yds/Game | 394.83 | 391.67 |
| Forced Turnovers/ game | 2 | .67 |
| 3rd Down Conversion % | 34-72 (47.2%) | 24-68 (35.3%) |
Over 6 shared opponents, the PPG & YPG have been remarkably similar, with Toney having a small point advantage and Armstrong having a small yardage advantage, but neither is notably better than the other in either category.
On getting off the field, Toney has a significant forced turnover advantage, and Armstrong has a significant 3rd down advantage.
Anyway, is Armstrong an improvement over Toney? A downgrade? Essentially the same? I welcome your thoughts.
