Listened to an interesting podcast by Andy Staples that covered some research by Ralph Russo on the preseason poll vs. the rankings at the end of the season. Specifically, it looked at number of teams in top 12 at the end of the season came from various places in the preseason poll. The history shows that (on average), the following occurs:
1) For those ranked 1-5, in a typical year, 4 of the 5 would make the playoff
2) For those ranked 6-10, only 2 of the 5 would make the playoff
3) For those ranked 11-15, 16-20, and 21-5, one each would make the playoff (3 total)
4) 3 teams that started the year unranked would make the playoffs each year
For me, the most surprising result was that of the teams ranked 6-15, on average only 3 of those teams would have made the playoffs each year--the same number as unranked teams. I'm sure there are lots of reasons for that, but my guess is that the pre-season polls for those teams give a lot of weight to prior years, even for teams that lost a lot. This year, for example, I could easily see teams like Michigan, FSU, & LSU be teams that really didn't merit their rankings given how much they lost (in the case of LSU, a fantastic QB and WRs.)
1) For those ranked 1-5, in a typical year, 4 of the 5 would make the playoff
2) For those ranked 6-10, only 2 of the 5 would make the playoff
3) For those ranked 11-15, 16-20, and 21-5, one each would make the playoff (3 total)
4) 3 teams that started the year unranked would make the playoffs each year
For me, the most surprising result was that of the teams ranked 6-15, on average only 3 of those teams would have made the playoffs each year--the same number as unranked teams. I'm sure there are lots of reasons for that, but my guess is that the pre-season polls for those teams give a lot of weight to prior years, even for teams that lost a lot. This year, for example, I could easily see teams like Michigan, FSU, & LSU be teams that really didn't merit their rankings given how much they lost (in the case of LSU, a fantastic QB and WRs.)
