I gave a deeper look into Mullen's past performance to see if it help any clues into what the Mullen era at UF will look like. Is he the next SOS or Urban or the next Zook/Mcelwain?
Here are some stats on Mullen as HC of Miss State:
Career win % .600
Conference win % .458
Conference titles - 0
Division titles - 0 (obviously)
Record against ranked teams - 2 - 15 (worst in AP history)
Average Offense - 48th
Average recruiting class - 28th
Average SEC recruiting rank - 9th
Average SECW recruiting rank - 6th (adding Texas A&M didn't help him)
Average SECW Finish - 5th
Now, for context, let's look at what was done at Miss State BEFORE his arrival to get a baseline. A good coach should be able to make marginal improvements to these important stats. An elite coach should be able to make drastic improvements across the board.
Here's what the program looked like prior to Mullen:
Win % since 1970 - approx .455
Average recruiting class - 37th
Average SEC recruiting rank - 9th
Average SECW recruiting rank - 5th
Average SECW finish - 6th
Analysis: Mullen improved their win rate from .455 to .600, which was enough to turn them into a bowl eligible team from one that usually just missed out. Credit must be given to him for this.
As far as his recruiting, he did move the needle there too, improving from an average class of 37th (used rankings from 2002 to 2008) to 28th nationally. Unfortunately, that improvement wasn't enough to move the needle against his SEC competition. He came into a program that averaged 9th in SEC recruiting, but wasn't able to improve upon that. Within his division (SECW), he actually declined, going from an average class of 5th before he got there to 6th during his tenure. Adding Texas A&M didn't help him here, but still. He really didn't move the needle within the SEC or SECW.
As far as on field results, Mullen averaged 5th place in the SECW. This suggests he's a slightly better coach than he is recruiter. He never won his division in 9 tries, and lost almost every game against a ranked opponent (2- 15). This suggests he's only as good as his recruits; he's not the kind of coach that can win with inferior talent. However, he also doesn't lose to teams with inferior talent, which is his strength.
Analysis: Mullen is a competent, consistent coach who has a high floor but a moderate ceiling. He's not an elite recruiter or on-field coach, which limits his potential. He can't beat elite teams without elite talent, yet he's not capable of recruiting elite talent. This is an insurmountable problem. Because of this, expect him to win a respectable 9 games per year, but not win any division titles or make the CFP. He just wont be able to bring in the talent needed to achieve this. However, we can expect to compete for division titles every 2 or 3 years. The question will be how long can he keep a job with this level of performance, especially when you consider he was hired by a close friend.
Conclusion: Stricklin made a safe hire that will not meet the stated objectives of winning conference titles and competing for Natty's. Mullen has never shown any signs of being anything other than merely capable and competent. Elite he is not.
So how would one spot a future elite coach? I suggest checking out James Franklin. He also coached in the SEC at the same time as Mullen. But he moved the needle in every category higher than Mullen did. It's clear he was special, and he's already showing it at Penn State. But that dolt Foley did not hire him when we had a chance, so it's a moot point.
So what about other candidates that are clearly better than Mullen? Are there any not named Chip Kelly? Yes, two easy ones come to mind that are clearly better than Mullen.
1) Bobby Petrino. Petrino is better at facet than Mullen, and it's not even close. Significantly better recruiter, more wins, conference titles, BCS bowls, better record against ranked teams, you name it. Petrino is the most likely coach to bring us to competing for Natty's outside of Chip Kelly. If Stricklin was serious about competing against the Saban's of the world, he would have offered Petrino.
2) Les Miles. Yes, Les Miles. The guy may have boring offenses, but he's proven to be better than Mullen in every category. He's got a .770 winning record in the SEC, brings in top 5 classes, and has a Natty. His floor and ceiling is higher than Mullen's.
After these two, there are no more sure things. However, here are two guys that were worth looking at that are both better coaches than Mullen:
1) Mike Leach. The pirate. He's got a better record than Mullen and he's a much better coach. He does more with less than Mullen ever will. All he needs are the recruits. He would have a top 5 offense at Florida every year.
2) Steve Spurrier. Don't laugh. I know it's a long shot, but you gotta ask. If you're going to offer a retired Stoops, why not gauge Steve's interest? He's been a better coach than Mullen at every stop he's made outside of the Redskins. Yes, even at USCE he was better than Mullen. If you says no, you move on. But you have to see if he wants to give it one last go.
That takes care of the proven guys that are clearly better candidates than Mullen. What about unproven up and coming hot shots? Yes, there are two that come to mind:
Scott Frost and Mike Norvell. Both have higher ceilings. Both have the potential to become elite. Mullen doesn't. Make those guys say no before you consider Mullen.
That's my take anyway. Let's see how all this play out over the next few years.
Here are some stats on Mullen as HC of Miss State:
Career win % .600
Conference win % .458
Conference titles - 0
Division titles - 0 (obviously)
Record against ranked teams - 2 - 15 (worst in AP history)
Average Offense - 48th
Average recruiting class - 28th
Average SEC recruiting rank - 9th
Average SECW recruiting rank - 6th (adding Texas A&M didn't help him)
Average SECW Finish - 5th
Now, for context, let's look at what was done at Miss State BEFORE his arrival to get a baseline. A good coach should be able to make marginal improvements to these important stats. An elite coach should be able to make drastic improvements across the board.
Here's what the program looked like prior to Mullen:
Win % since 1970 - approx .455
Average recruiting class - 37th
Average SEC recruiting rank - 9th
Average SECW recruiting rank - 5th
Average SECW finish - 6th
Analysis: Mullen improved their win rate from .455 to .600, which was enough to turn them into a bowl eligible team from one that usually just missed out. Credit must be given to him for this.
As far as his recruiting, he did move the needle there too, improving from an average class of 37th (used rankings from 2002 to 2008) to 28th nationally. Unfortunately, that improvement wasn't enough to move the needle against his SEC competition. He came into a program that averaged 9th in SEC recruiting, but wasn't able to improve upon that. Within his division (SECW), he actually declined, going from an average class of 5th before he got there to 6th during his tenure. Adding Texas A&M didn't help him here, but still. He really didn't move the needle within the SEC or SECW.
As far as on field results, Mullen averaged 5th place in the SECW. This suggests he's a slightly better coach than he is recruiter. He never won his division in 9 tries, and lost almost every game against a ranked opponent (2- 15). This suggests he's only as good as his recruits; he's not the kind of coach that can win with inferior talent. However, he also doesn't lose to teams with inferior talent, which is his strength.
Analysis: Mullen is a competent, consistent coach who has a high floor but a moderate ceiling. He's not an elite recruiter or on-field coach, which limits his potential. He can't beat elite teams without elite talent, yet he's not capable of recruiting elite talent. This is an insurmountable problem. Because of this, expect him to win a respectable 9 games per year, but not win any division titles or make the CFP. He just wont be able to bring in the talent needed to achieve this. However, we can expect to compete for division titles every 2 or 3 years. The question will be how long can he keep a job with this level of performance, especially when you consider he was hired by a close friend.
Conclusion: Stricklin made a safe hire that will not meet the stated objectives of winning conference titles and competing for Natty's. Mullen has never shown any signs of being anything other than merely capable and competent. Elite he is not.
So how would one spot a future elite coach? I suggest checking out James Franklin. He also coached in the SEC at the same time as Mullen. But he moved the needle in every category higher than Mullen did. It's clear he was special, and he's already showing it at Penn State. But that dolt Foley did not hire him when we had a chance, so it's a moot point.
So what about other candidates that are clearly better than Mullen? Are there any not named Chip Kelly? Yes, two easy ones come to mind that are clearly better than Mullen.
1) Bobby Petrino. Petrino is better at facet than Mullen, and it's not even close. Significantly better recruiter, more wins, conference titles, BCS bowls, better record against ranked teams, you name it. Petrino is the most likely coach to bring us to competing for Natty's outside of Chip Kelly. If Stricklin was serious about competing against the Saban's of the world, he would have offered Petrino.
2) Les Miles. Yes, Les Miles. The guy may have boring offenses, but he's proven to be better than Mullen in every category. He's got a .770 winning record in the SEC, brings in top 5 classes, and has a Natty. His floor and ceiling is higher than Mullen's.
After these two, there are no more sure things. However, here are two guys that were worth looking at that are both better coaches than Mullen:
1) Mike Leach. The pirate. He's got a better record than Mullen and he's a much better coach. He does more with less than Mullen ever will. All he needs are the recruits. He would have a top 5 offense at Florida every year.
2) Steve Spurrier. Don't laugh. I know it's a long shot, but you gotta ask. If you're going to offer a retired Stoops, why not gauge Steve's interest? He's been a better coach than Mullen at every stop he's made outside of the Redskins. Yes, even at USCE he was better than Mullen. If you says no, you move on. But you have to see if he wants to give it one last go.
That takes care of the proven guys that are clearly better candidates than Mullen. What about unproven up and coming hot shots? Yes, there are two that come to mind:
Scott Frost and Mike Norvell. Both have higher ceilings. Both have the potential to become elite. Mullen doesn't. Make those guys say no before you consider Mullen.
That's my take anyway. Let's see how all this play out over the next few years.
