538 predicts the election

[GhostOfMatchesMalone]

Wanted to get these up cause I know the left swears by 538. Even though they were spectacularly wrong in 2016, and based on these numbers are about to be spectacularly wrong in 2020:

The predictions:

Hiden has a 89% chance of winning. Trump has a 10% chance of winning.

Hiden has a 97% chance of winning the popular vote, Trump has a 3% chance of winning it.

Trump has a less than 1% chance of winning in a landslide.

538 predicts Biden will win all of these states: Georgia, Florida, North Carolina, Arizona, PA, Wisconsin, Nevada, Michigan and Minnesota.

 

[NavigatorII]

Wanted to get these up cause I know the left swears by 538. Even though they were spectacularly wrong in 2016, and based on these numbers are about to be spectacularly wrong in 2020:

The predictions:

Hiden has a 89% chance of winning. Trump has a 10% chance of winning.

Hiden has a 97% chance of winning the popular vote, Trump has a 3% chance of winning it.

Trump has a less than 1% chance of winning in a landslide.

538 predicts Biden will win all of these states: Georgia, Florida, North Carolina, Arizona, PA, Wisconsin, Nevada, Michigan and Minnesota.

Damn. And I thought Botox Nan was delusional. Don't know who 538 is but obviously they are just another leftist arm of the protard propaganda arm.

 

[nail1988]

Damn. And I thought Botox Nan was delusional. Don't know who 538 is but obviously they are just another leftist arm of the protard propaganda arm.

He’s the clown the RATS and #Fakenews media worship with polling. He all about voter suppression. Now he’s crawfishing in PA.

The fool was horribly wrong in 2016

 

[GhostOfMatchesMalone]

 

[NavigatorII]

View embedded media

Damn. That idiot looks like Rick Moranis from Ghostbusters.....and tried to give himself a haircut and forgot the blade guard. 🤣

 

[Uniformed_ReRe]

I don't know about Georgia, Florida, and North Carolina, but I thin they ar

Wanted to get these up cause I know the left swears by 538. Even though they were spectacularly wrong in 2016, and based on these numbers are about to be spectacularly wrong in 2020:

The predictions:

Hiden has a 89% chance of winning. Trump has a 10% chance of winning.

Hiden has a 97% chance of winning the popular vote, Trump has a 3% chance of winning it.

Trump has a less than 1% chance of winning in a landslide.

538 predicts Biden will win all of these states: Georgia, Florida, North Carolina, Arizona, PA, Wisconsin, Nevada, Michigan and Minnesota.

538 shows Georgia, Florida, and North Carolina as being very close. It would not be surprising if all of them went to Trump. The final polls for Pennsylvania are due tomorrow.

If Biden wins any of Georgia, Florida, Ohio, North Carolina, Texas, or Pennsylvania, he wins.

If Trump loses any of Georgia, Florida, Ohio, North Carolina, Texas, or Pennsylvania, he loses.

If Biden loses all of the above but wins Arizona, he still wins–unless he also loses the second district of Nebraska. The latter scenario produces an electoral tie of 269-269, which Biden wins since he won the popular vote and the Democrats control the house.

I mocked up the electoral tie scenario using 538s interactive map:

By the way, 538 gave Trump a decent probability of winning in 2016 and accurately anticipated that he could win the electoral college while losing the popular vote. They were not nearly as off as people seem to believe.

 

[GhostOfMatchesMalone]

By the way, 538 gave Trump a decent probability of winning in 2016 and accurately anticipated that he could win the electoral college while losing the popular vote. They were not nearly as off as people seem to believe.

538 gave Trump a 29% chance of winning on Election Day 2016

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/

Looks like he will be giving Trump half the chance he did in 2016, which is so idiotic it borders on insanity. He got the chances for Clinton and Trump reversed in 2016, looks like he's made the same mistake for Hiden and Trump in 2020.

 

[GhostOfMatchesMalone]

OMG! Look at 538's different scenarios for the election:

2020 Election Forecast

Latest forecast of the 2020 presidential election between President Donald Trump and Joe Biden by Nate Silver’s FiveThirtyEight

projects.fivethirtyeight.com

They actually have a scenario where they think Hiden will sweep the ENTIRE SOUTH, but they don't have a single scenario where Trump can win Virginia. And some pollsters are saying he will.

Hilarious. This thread will be lit in 48 hours.

 

[Sunburnt Indian]

The near dead on in 2016 were Trafalgar and USC. Both say Trump for 2020. Trafalgar was the ONLY to pick Trump to win Michigan.

Emerson, Rasmussen and Zogby say Trump to add a bunch of minorities in 2020. Biden is a segregationist who tagged Ms. Lockupabruthuh as a team mate.

 

[gatordad3]

OMG! Look at 538's different scenarios for the election:

2020 Election Forecast

Latest forecast of the 2020 presidential election between President Donald Trump and Joe Biden by Nate Silver’s FiveThirtyEight

projects.fivethirtyeight.com

They actually have a scenario where they think Hiden will sweep the ENTIRE SOUTH, but they don't have a single scenario where Trump can win Virginia. And some pollsters are saying he will.

Hilarious. This thread will be lit in 48 hours.

Trump winning Virginia? I hope it happens especially when those libtards were dumb enough to vote in Mr Blackface Northam.

 

[IrishPokerDog]

538 predicts only a 10% chance for Trump to win - I guess that’s an improvement of the 9% they gave him in 2016

could be a lot of crow for those guys to consume

 

[GhostOfMatchesMalone]

Trump winning Virginia? I hope it happens especially when those libtards were dumb enough to vote in Mr Blackface Northam.

He likely won't but him taking Virginia will sure as shit happen before Hiden sweeps the Deep South. Which 538 thinks is possible.

This is why the sheep have no idea what is happening in the real world. They think a Trump victory, let alone a landslide, is impossible. But they think 'Hey Hiden COULD take Alabama, Mississippi and Tennessee! It's possible!'

 

[Uniformed_ReRe]

538 predicts only a 10% chance for Trump to win - I guess that’s an improvement of the 9% they gave him in 2016

could be a lot of crow for those guys to consume

They gave him a 28.6% chance.

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/

 

[Uniformed_ReRe]

They also noted that he was only a standard polling error from winning:

Trump Is Just A Normal Polling Error Behind Clinton

Even at the end of a presidential campaign, polls don’t perfectly predict the final margin in the election. Sometimes the final polls are quite accurate. An ave…

www.google.com

538 was actually more accurate than most. I think the NYTimes gave Hillary around a 99% chance.

 

[fatman76]

Trump winning Virginia? I hope it happens especially when those libtards were dumb enough to vote in Mr Blackface Northam.

There will be two VA votes from my household. First time my wife has ever voted R.

 

[fatman76]

538 predicts only a 10% chance for Trump to win - I guess that’s an improvement of the 9% they gave him in 2016

could be a lot of crow for those guys to consume

they don't care - they have one goal and maintaining credibility ain't it

Also @GhostOfMatchesMalone - I don't think Trump will take VA...just reading the tea leaves with yard signs. Even smaller rural cities like the one I live in are turning blue. I think VA is solidly for Biden, and I'd be surprised if it's still considered purple after this election. All the population centers are either near DC or College Towns...

 

[nothergator]

Trump winning Virginia? I hope it happens especially when those libtards were dumb enough to vote in Mr Blackface Northam.

I have no insider knowledge and I don't follow the polls but here is the problem with Virginia as I see it. Warner has manipulated his self into being one of the main men in the Democrat Machine and I would bet by now he and his money/cronies have turned Virginia into a Democrat lock.

 

[fatman76]

I have no insider knowledge and I don't follow the polls but here is the problem with Virginia as I see it. Warner has manipulated his self into being one of the main men in the Democrat Machine and I would bet by now he and his money/cronies have turned Virginia into a Democrat lock.

This is also true...Gade, who is running against him, has noted millions and millions pouring in from out of state, and there's a Warner ad nearly every commercial break here. He is spending a fvckton of cash.

 

[IrishPokerDog]

This is also true...Gade, who is running against him, has noted millions and millions pouring in from out of state, and there's a Warner ad nearly every commercial break here. He is spending a fvckton of cash.

VA may be lost to Trump, but it’s great hearing they have to spend a fvckton of $$$ to do it.... wasted fvcktons if Trump still wins

 

[martycat1]

Went to Mammoth Cave yesterday and counted a total of 4 Biden signs. Too many Trump signs and flags to count. Albeit I took all back roads. 3 of the Biden signs were 3 houses located next to each other in Washington County. Cant remember what county I was in for the other one. Its cool to see pickup truck parked on overpasses with Trump flags flying.

 

[Sunburnt Indian]

Staunton , VA cleaned out all seven Democrat city council members in 2018 and replaced them with Pubs. Seems the locals liked their guns. The Dem council members got the number of votes they got in the previous election but 2018 saw record turnout.