People know how I feel about MW but I don’t want this thread to be about him. I want it about the numbers and x and o’s. I want @Tarjf to chime in since he is an x and o guy. As a numbers guy I look at the numbers and they scare me.
I’m also not going to go full nerd with an advanced stats discussion to start but I’m not against this discussion going there. I just want to talk about shooting.
On the year we are 260th in the country at 31.2% from 3. That is brutal. We are 114th from 2 at 51.4%. Not great but above average.
Not accounting for free throws we average .936 points per 3 point attempt and 1.028 points per 2 point attempt. So you’d think we would want to attempt 3s at a below average rate. However, we don’t. We are 105th in the country with 41.6% of our attempts being from 3. I don’t understand why we continue to do what we do poorly with so much frequency.
Look at the Stony Brook game, one where @Franz Beard said we shot well. He’s right. We were above our season averages. 34.8% from 3 and 64.9% from 2. That’s 1.04 points per 3 and 1.30 from 2. However, despite such a large differential we still shot 3s at a high rate of 38.33%. Yes, below our season average but still too high.
Think of it this way. We had a big size advantage yesterday. We were scoring 25% more per attempt from 2 than 3. Our season average is 10% more. Yet, we didn’t see a significant increase in 2% rate commensurate with the significant increase in output.
So this is where I want the x and o guys to educate me. I get it that in general terms we run a lot of 5 out offense and we are spotting up shooters. But why? Why would you run a system that emphasizes what you don’t do well?
I was worried about how this team was put together. Yes, if you look at individuals we did VERY well in the portal. But if you look at the sum of the parts we were putting together a team that was going to be an incredibly inefficient 3 point shooting team and the numbers bear that out so far.
And yes, I know we are 43 offensively in KenPom but I also know our opponents’ average NET is 187 and we’ve only played 2 games that weren’t quad 3 or 4. Can we really continue what we are doing and win more than 10 SEC games? With a current NET of 60 we probably need at least 10. Perhaps 9 if we beat Oke State later in the year.
So again, what am I missing? What is the on court advantage of emphasizing what you don’t do well? Can’t you run sets and actions to get high percentage 2s instead of low percentage 3s?
I’m also not going to go full nerd with an advanced stats discussion to start but I’m not against this discussion going there. I just want to talk about shooting.
On the year we are 260th in the country at 31.2% from 3. That is brutal. We are 114th from 2 at 51.4%. Not great but above average.
Not accounting for free throws we average .936 points per 3 point attempt and 1.028 points per 2 point attempt. So you’d think we would want to attempt 3s at a below average rate. However, we don’t. We are 105th in the country with 41.6% of our attempts being from 3. I don’t understand why we continue to do what we do poorly with so much frequency.
Look at the Stony Brook game, one where @Franz Beard said we shot well. He’s right. We were above our season averages. 34.8% from 3 and 64.9% from 2. That’s 1.04 points per 3 and 1.30 from 2. However, despite such a large differential we still shot 3s at a high rate of 38.33%. Yes, below our season average but still too high.
Think of it this way. We had a big size advantage yesterday. We were scoring 25% more per attempt from 2 than 3. Our season average is 10% more. Yet, we didn’t see a significant increase in 2% rate commensurate with the significant increase in output.
So this is where I want the x and o guys to educate me. I get it that in general terms we run a lot of 5 out offense and we are spotting up shooters. But why? Why would you run a system that emphasizes what you don’t do well?
I was worried about how this team was put together. Yes, if you look at individuals we did VERY well in the portal. But if you look at the sum of the parts we were putting together a team that was going to be an incredibly inefficient 3 point shooting team and the numbers bear that out so far.
And yes, I know we are 43 offensively in KenPom but I also know our opponents’ average NET is 187 and we’ve only played 2 games that weren’t quad 3 or 4. Can we really continue what we are doing and win more than 10 SEC games? With a current NET of 60 we probably need at least 10. Perhaps 9 if we beat Oke State later in the year.
So again, what am I missing? What is the on court advantage of emphasizing what you don’t do well? Can’t you run sets and actions to get high percentage 2s instead of low percentage 3s?
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