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Tariffs


This is not the View. This is the National Review.

He needs to figure this out - fast. He's losing the stock market and the bond market. Recession fears. He's losing support from the people who flipped this time and helped him win the election and all of the swing states.

People were looking for, as it was in Trump 1.0 - rising economy, rising growth and rising stock prices. Not an all out Trade war.

Greatest fear is that he loses the mid-terms (as is noted here) and then his work grinds to an absolute halt as Hakeem J. makes it his mission to investigate every part of the Trump Executive branch.

I remain, as do many, THRILLED at work on the Border, general move on reducing inflation (outside of tariffs) and removal of identity politics.

Again, we will see...
 
He needs to figure this out - fast. He's losing the stock market and the bond market. Recession fears.
Stock market was up 1000 points yesterday and is up another 1000 points in 2 hours of trading this morning.

Trump will win again, the media will spend the entire time telling you he lost, then the next time Trump has a plan, the media will tell you the plan won't work, and we start the process all over again.
 
A tariff is exactly that - it's an artificial method of increasing the cost to access a market. I'm not sure you understand how tariffs actually work.

The manufacturer, broker, distributor and retailer all take a hit because the tariff blocks (or increases the cost to access the market). The consumer does too, to a lesser extent. As the costs increase and the sell price can't keep up due to elasticity of demand, efficient supply chains look for better options. Moving manufacturing to a lower tariffed country, changing sourcing or supply chain strategies, etc, are all on the table. But it takes time for these changes to happen.

The only way the US can tax a foreign company is if they have significant interests or operations in the US. But taxes are almost always passed on because they only apply to the finished good that's already stateside (not the entire supply chain), so if you really want to hose the consumer, hit Apple with a 125% tax. That would have a terrible impact on the economy. AND - you have to do it by company or category.

To make it as simple as possible:
Taxes apply to finished goods, so there's only one person to pay that price, the consumer. Apple is not going to reduce their MSRP due to a tax.
Tariffs block the access to a market, and therefore hit all levels of the supply chain, reducing the impact to the consumer but increasing incentives for companies to find alternative strategies.

I have worked in Product Management for two companies over the last 23 years - one imported 95% of what they sold and one is a domestic manufacturer that imports 30% of product sold.
Tariffs are country specific. I’m talking about taxing American companies for manufacturing outside the US, regardless of location. Or for offshoring profits offshore to avoid taxes (the pharmaceutical industry pays almost a zero effective tax rate)..

Advantage being that American companies are largely the ones who offshored and the most likely to reshore. Also, the US govt has leverage over those companies. We just saw the limits of our leverage over China with Trump unilaterally reductions to tariffs and him rolling over and begging Xi to rub his belly in those Oval Office comments. Also by imposing a tax, you don’t have to negotiate trade deals with 85 different countries

I get that taxes require Congress and that’s probably why they went with tariffs.

We’ll see how the tariff negotiations shake out. My guess is we’ll be happy to return to the status quo.
 
I claim zero knowledge of world economics and thus have to accept and rely on those who know better. I can’t say The Trump approach will or won’t work. It just seems to me there would be a more subtle way to make changes.
I think we could have made subtle changes years ago to right the ship, but we didn’t. We have let this go to far down the road for subtle solutions. It’s like person who ignores signs of cancer until it’s spread. The treatment is different depending on how advanced it is. In fact, the treatment for advanced cancer is POISONOUS to the body. In regards to trump’s approach to trade, I think we are left with bad options and worse options. I think we have to go the full measure of chemo and radiation or we are going to leave a degraded vassal state subservient to the Chinese to our children. If we don’t have the leverage to right the ship now, then we aren’t going to magically get the leverage down the road.
 
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I think we could have made subtle changes years ago to right the ship, but we didn’t. We have let this go to far down the road for subtle solutions. It’s like person who ignores signs of cancer until it’s spread. The treatment is different depending on how advanced it is. In fact, the treatment for advanced cancer is POISONOUS to the body. In regards to trump’s approach to trade, I think we are left with bad options and worse options. I think we have to go the full measure of chemo and radiation or we are going to leave a degraded vassal state subservient to the Chinese to our children. If we don’t have the leverage to right the ship now, then we aren’t going to magically get the leverage down the road.
This may be correct. But seems to me the leverage we do have, at least for the time being, is enormous paper wealth. So why not use some of that to create conditions to reshore manufacturing: update factories, improve infrastructure, train workers to do skilled manufacturing?

Initiating a standoff with China when we depend on them for manufacturing and we don’t currently have the capabilities to replace it, seems dumb.
 
Some things have to be done even if they don’t poll well. We cannot continue with the status quo.
The terrible polls and the stock market rout are why Trump is already backing down. You have to account for those things. As much as taking a sledge hammer to the process might sound appealing (it obviously appealed to Trump), it’s not realistic. Trumps not going to hold out while the stock market dumps and he risks losing Congress in 2026. Nobody would.
 
A tariff is exactly that - it's an artificial method of increasing the cost to access a market. I'm not sure you understand how tariffs actually work.
Yes.

This is going exactly as we knew it would: Trump starts off imposing massive tariffs because he always starts a negotiation with an insanely high number to hit at the real number he wants.

The Art of the Deal. Now the number will drop as China comes to the table and starts negotiating. With every drop, we will hear that 'Trump caved!'

Smoke will clear and Trump will get the deal he wanted, if not better. Media gets to say Trump blew it and caved cause he didn't know what he was doing.

Bradley gets to parrot what dog avatar Twitter dude told him and say that Trump was in over his head and Bessent had to talk him into dropping this silliness.

Everyone wins.

PS: Stocks up big again today. Spin will be 'Bessent calms markets, Trump backs down'.
 
This may be correct. But seems to me the leverage we do have, at least for the time being, is enormous paper wealth. So why not use some of that to create conditions to reshore manufacturing: update factories, improve infrastructure, train workers to do skilled manufacturing?

Initiating a standoff with China when we depend on them for manufacturing and we don’t currently have the capabilities to replace it, seems dumb.
I don’t think those manufacturing jobs are coming back without raw force. I agree with creating conditions that would make the transition back to the US less painful for these businesses like lower taxes, cut regulations and so forth. However, I think it has to be coupled with blunt force on the other end. I don’t think those jobs are coming back out of the kindness of corporate hearts. I don’t like it, and I think it will be painful for a period of time, but I think we have to make this move. If we had started tinkering with this 20 years ago, I think it would be different. I fully acknowledge that it MAY not work, and could actually increase the pace of our demise. I just don’t think we can sit bye while our future generations country is sold out from underneath them.
 
The terrible polls and the stock market rout are why Trump is already backing down. You have to account for those things. As much as taking a sledge hammer to the process might sound appealing (it obviously appealed to Trump), it’s not realistic. Trumps not going to hold out while the stock market dumps and he risks losing Congress in 2026. Nobody would.
It will be no surprise if the Pups take an ass whipping in the mid-terms. people don't like seeing their savings decimated.
 

This is not the View. This is the National Review.

He needs to figure this out - fast. He's losing the stock market and the bond market. Recession fears. He's losing support from the people who flipped this time and helped him win the election and all of the swing states.

People were looking for, as it was in Trump 1.0 - rising economy, rising growth and rising stock prices. Not an all out Trade war.

Greatest fear is that he loses the mid-terms (as is noted here) and then his work grinds to an absolute halt as Hakeem J. makes it his mission to investigate every part of the Trump Executive branch.

I remain, as do many, THRILLED at work on the Border, general move on reducing inflation (outside of tariffs) and removal of identity politics.

Again, we will see...

National review is worse than the wall street journal editorial board. They’re apart of the never trumper open boarders crowd.
 
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Yes.

This is going exactly as we knew it would: Trump starts off imposing massive tariffs because he always starts a negotiation with an insanely high number to hit at the real number he wants.

The Art of the Deal. Now the number will drop as China comes to the table and starts negotiating. With every drop, we will hear that 'Trump caved!'

Smoke will clear and Trump will get the deal he wanted, if not better. Media gets to say Trump blew it and caved cause he didn't know what he was doing.

Bradley gets to parrot what dog avatar Twitter dude told him and say that Trump was in over his head and Bessent had to talk him into dropping this silliness.

Everyone wins.

PS: Stocks up big again today. Spin will be 'Bessent calms markets, Trump backs down'.
Trump also always over negotiates. IOW, if he wants 10% he asks for 30%.

Deal is struck at 15% and everyone calls him a loser for caving, when in fact he exceeded his goal by 5%.
 
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This and a few others(threads) remind me of FANS that think they know better how to coach a college football team than people that have done it all their life, when the extent of their knowledge comes from playing city league football, and watching football on Saturdays. Does not make you wrong per se...but chances are you ARE wrong. Lets give the MULTI BILLIONAIRE...who for over FORTY YEARS has been preaching what he is doing right now. OR.......someone lay down their credentials ere and explain WHY I should be listening to YOU over him. I am ALL IN on this being the right move...even though there are fainting goats hanging around here.
 
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Our Politicians & Elites have sold out America for 40 years.

It’s going to take a minute to fix…
It will be - and does not need to (and won't be) solved in 40 days. Taking the Navarro approach of every country and each modality of "unfairness" meaning dollar tariffs plus non-dollar trade barriers plus currency in that span is not reasonable.

Chamath hit the right four areas on what we need to solve for:

1. Energy independence and reducing our cost per compute (vis-a-vis China)
2. Critical Raw Material availability (which is why we should tie, to Trumps' credit Ukraine's support to critical material access)
3. Data and AI independence
4. (I forget the fourth)

My view is and remains - go get to "zero-zero" or hit a segment of selected industries where there is both clear unfairness and where taking a hard stand does not hit (or helps) the seven swing states. Example - hit Audi's with tarrifs (I have an A7 and love it, but love US cars too including Teslas). Who cares.

Get your wins, get positive momentum, WIN THE MID TERMS and then continue.

What DID needed to be solved in 4 days was illegal immigration. Trump did that. A+.
 
This and a few others(threads) remind me of FANS that think they know better how to coach a college football team than people that have done it all their life, when the extent of their knowledge comes from playing city league football, and watching football on Saturdays. Does not make you wrong per se...but chances are you ARE wrong. Lets give the MULTI BILLIONAIRE...who for over FORTY YEARS has been preaching what he is doing right now. OR.......someone lay down their credentials ere and explain WHY I should be listening to YOU over him. I am ALL IN on this being the right move...even though there are fainting goats hanging around here.
Oh - Cap't, not the "trust the coaches" argument especially after Muschamp, Mac, Mullen and the "greatest OC" of all time Napier?
 
Oh - Cap't, not the "trust the coaches" argument especially after Muschamp, Mac, Mullen and the "greatest OC" of all time Napier?
No...I never said those words. No Gator fan could. I said those fans do not need to expound on how to run the whole team. Again...someone lay your credentials down, and I will compare them to Trumps. You see, where this is different...Trump would be Nick Saban of college football coaches...not Will Muschamp.


 
Tariffs are country specific. I’m talking about taxing American companies for manufacturing outside the US, regardless of location. Or for offshoring profits offshore to avoid taxes (the pharmaceutical industry pays almost a zero effective tax rate)..

Advantage being that American companies are largely the ones who offshored and the most likely to reshore. Also, the US govt has leverage over those companies. We just saw the limits of our leverage over China with Trump unilaterally reductions to tariffs and him rolling over and begging Xi to rub his belly in those Oval Office comments. Also by imposing a tax, you don’t have to negotiate trade deals with 85 different countries

I get that taxes require Congress and that’s probably why they went with tariffs.

We’ll see how the tariff negotiations shake out. My guess is we’ll be happy to return to the status quo.
That's exactly the point - Trump is trying to level the playing field with countries, not companies. You do that with tariffs. Why make our companies bear 100% of the burden when they're not 100% at fault. They're still being incentivized, but shouldn't the money come from the countries that created the unfair competitive situation?


And you still haven't told me how much Trump is "caving". What's the new tariff?

And this came out 35 mins ago:


"White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt said this afternoon that the Trump administration will not unilaterally reduce tariffs imposed on China.

"Let me be clear, there will be no unilateral reduction in tariffs against China," she said in an interview on Fox News. "The president has made it clear China needs to make a deal with the United States of America, and we are optimistic that will happen."

She rejected the idea that Trump's position on tariffs on China has been softening.

"He is not going to give up on ensuring that there are fair trade practices around the world," she said. "He is not giving up on the fact that China has been ripping off the United States of America for far too long.""

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Oh, and this just happened today too. Who's caving again?

China warns U.S. to stop threatening and blackmailing it​


Rebecca Shabad

Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson Guo Jiakun warned the U.S. today against continuing its current approach in trying to find a solution to the trade war.
"Our doors are open, if the U.S. wants to talk. If a negotiated solution is truly what the U.S. wants, it should stop threatening and blackmailing China and seek dialogue based on equality, respect and mutual benefit," Jiakun said, according to a video released by the Chinese Foreign Ministry on X.
"To keep asking for a deal while exerting extreme pressure is not the right way to deal with China and simply will not work," he added.
 
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Yes.

This is going exactly as we knew it would: Trump starts off imposing massive tariffs because he always starts a negotiation with an insanely high number to hit at the real number he wants.


The Art of the Deal. Now the number will drop as China comes to the table and starts negotiating. With every drop, we will hear that 'Trump caved!'

Smoke will clear and Trump will get the deal he wanted, if not better. Media gets to say Trump blew it and caved cause he didn't know what he was doing.

Bradley gets to parrot what dog avatar Twitter dude told him and say that Trump was in over his head and Bessent had to talk him into dropping this silliness.

Everyone wins.

PS: Stocks up big again today. Spin will be 'Bessent calms markets, Trump backs down'.
Bradly calls this "caving in" LOLOL Has NO CLUE what is really happening. Does not understand anything about negotiations. Since I have taught negotiating for almost 4 decades.. I DO understand.
 
This may be correct. But seems to me the leverage we do have, at least for the time being, is enormous paper wealth. So why not use some of that to create conditions to reshore manufacturing: update factories, improve infrastructure, train workers to do skilled manufacturing?

Initiating a standoff with China when we depend on them for manufacturing and we don’t currently have the capabilities to replace it, seems dumb.
Who knows what China's angles are, but perhaps a mutually beneficial arrangement can be made where factories that are jointly owned are located here, employing US workers?

I'm just spitballing, but there are creative solutions to creating situations where both parties benefit.

Then we can steal their manufacturing expertise like they steal our R&D.
 
What many do not understand in this negotiation is China is an EXPORTER economy... This weakens their position BIG TIME. Let me tell you what MAY be coming. Trump putting the whammy on China goods, and start making people pay attention to where our overseas goods come from. BUY AMERICAN. Something to this effect is coming.
 
Who knows what China's angles are, but perhaps a mutually beneficial arrangement can be made where factories that are jointly owned are located here, employing US workers?

I'm just spitballing, but there are creative solutions to creating situations where both parties benefit.

Then we can steal their manufacturing expertise like they steal our R&D.
EXACTLY how negotiations are won...and if you read his book CLEARLY spelled out. No...it is NOT caving in
 
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I don’t think those manufacturing jobs are coming back without raw force. I agree with creating conditions that would make the transition back to the US less painful for these businesses like lower taxes, cut regulations and so forth. However, I think it has to be coupled with blunt force on the other end. I don’t think those jobs are coming back out of the kindness of corporate hearts. I don’t like it, and I think it will be painful for a period of time, but I think we have to make this move. If we had started tinkering with this 20 years ago, I think it would be different. I fully acknowledge that it MAY not work, and could actually increase the pace of our demise. I just don’t think we can sit bye while our future generations country is sold out from underneath them.
It takes a long time to get industry back.

It'd take 10 years for US steel to become meaningful again.

But that doesn't mean you don't move more nimble industries back here.
 
I don’t think those manufacturing jobs are coming back without raw force. I agree with creating conditions that would make the transition back to the US less painful for these businesses like lower taxes, cut regulations and so forth. However, I think it has to be coupled with blunt force on the other end. I don’t think those jobs are coming back out of the kindness of corporate hearts. I don’t like it, and I think it will be painful for a period of time, but I think we have to make this move. If we had started tinkering with this 20 years ago, I think it would be different. I fully acknowledge that it MAY not work, and could actually increase the pace of our demise. I just don’t think we can sit bye while our future generations country is sold out from underneath them.
Tariffs ARE the raw force. I am in the Auto industry, and for now Ford and GM are going to ship vehicles and EAT the tariffs. Remember, the tariffs only apply to non American parts. (does not matter where the vehicle is shipped from, just the parts content) We fully expect the big 3 to agree to closing many of their overseas production facilities and announce it with Trump, and he will remove the tariffs. Hell, he even has union support on this, and EXACTLY why I predicted Michigan for Trump before the election( I was THE ONLY one to do that). Union bosses were NOT for Trump, but union WORKERS were, and there are WAY more workers than bosses.
 
Bradly calls this "caving in" LOLOL Has NO CLUE what is really happening. Does not understand anything about negotiations. Since I have taught negotiating for almost 4 decades.. I DO understand.
So it’s good negotiating to take an impossibly hard line and then immediately announce publicly that you’re willing to accept far less without any concessions from the other side? Interesting. In my business we call this negotiating against yourself.

I’ve heard a lot that this is trademark Trump negotiating. Where else have we seen it? Anyone got an example of a big negotiating win as President?

He ripped up the Iran nuclear deal and now is trying to negotiate the same terms back in place. He didn’t do it with Russia and Ukraine. He didn’t come out and say: Russia has to leave Ukraine completely or I’ll start WW3! And then say, ok he can keep the Donbass and Crimea. He couldn’t get rid of Obamacare notwithstanding the fact he had both houses of congress. He did get a big tax cut on a party line vote. He hasn’t budged Israel on a ceasefire (I guess he got a weekend).

What are the big Trump negotiations he’s won? Do I have to go back to when he was hosting the apprentice?
 
No...I never said those words. No Gator fan could. I said those fans do not need to expound on how to run the whole team. Again...someone lay your credentials down, and I will compare them to Trumps. You see, where this is different...Trump would be Nick Saban of college football coaches...not Will Muschamp.


Haha. Thats facts.

This is not about the whole team. This is not about Trump’s whole platform; this is about a segment that is not working.

As an example, Saban turned over plenty of OCs given including Nuss and Mac. It was not just fans who saw it, it was outside critics and commentators who weighed in.

Saban - to his credit, adjusted.

This is not just “fans”, there are plenty of other billionaires and CEOs who have had plenty if not more financial success than Trump has had who are weighing in similarly to the fans and the voters. Trump is not a better business person than Musk.

You have a handful be it Moore or Navarro one can trot out but it is not a majority of people.

Enough said. As always, we will see….
 
So it’s good negotiating to take an impossibly hard line and then immediately announce publicly that you’re willing to accept far less without any concessions from the other side? Interesting. In my business we call this negotiating against yourself.

I’ve heard a lot that this is trademark Trump negotiating. Where else have we seen it? Anyone got an example of a big negotiating win as President?

He ripped up the Iran nuclear deal and now is trying to negotiate the same terms back in place. He didn’t do it with Russia and Ukraine. He didn’t come out and say: Russia has to leave Ukraine completely or I’ll start WW3! And then say, ok he can keep the Donbass and Crimea. He couldn’t get rid of Obamacare notwithstanding the fact he had both houses of congress. He did get a big tax cut on a party line vote. He hasn’t budged Israel on a ceasefire (I guess he got a weekend).

What are the big Trump negotiations he’s won? Do I have to go back to when he was hosting the apprentice?
Tax cuts, the USMCA, tariffs with Japan (first term), negotiated farm exports w Japan, 40 million trade deal w Japan on digital trade, got more reamins from N Korea than all presidents COMBINED, renegotiated US Korean free trade agreement, Otto Warmier release, hostages from Hamas, negotiated 200 BILLION exports TO China (FJB refused to enforce), NATO member contributions went WAY up, tariffs by EU on Lobster....listen Bradly....you should be embarrassed NOT knowing this stuff making the uneducated comments that you are. You have dispalyed your HATE...and more importantly, your LACK OF KNOWLEDGE on world events.


BTW this was just a SMALL FRACTION of things....and you did not know this? Why are you even commenting if you do not know what you are talking about? (LOL could be said most of us do this! LOL)
 
Tax cuts, the USMCA, tariffs with Japan (first term), negotiated farm exports w Japan, 40 million trade deal w Japan on digital trade, got more reamins from N Korea than all presidents COMBINED, renegotiated US Korean free trade agreement, Otto Warmier release, hostages from Hamas, negotiated 200 BILLION exports TO China (FJB refused to enforce), NATO member contributions went WAY up, tariffs by EU on Lobster....listen Bradly....you should be embarrassed NOT knowing this stuff making the uneducated comments that you are. You have dispalyed your HATE...and more importantly, your LACK OF KNOWLEDGE on world events.


BTW this was just a SMALL FRACTION of things....and you did not know this? Why are you even commenting if you do not know what you are talking about? (LOL could be said most of us do this! LOL)
China blew off the trade deal completely. Tariffs on lobster? Lol. The trade deal with Japan he just unilaterally violated with the tariffs, strange move if it was working. Tax cuts? He had both chambers of Congress as a Republican. In that same environment he couldn’t even kill Obama care.

But I DO remember when he owned Omarosa on that one challenge. That was pretty special. 😉
 
China blew off the trade deal completely. Tariffs on lobster? Lol. The trade deal with Japan he just unilaterally violated with the tariffs, strange move if it was working. Tax cuts? He had both chambers of Congress as a Republican. In that same environment he couldn’t even kill Obama care.

But I DO remember when he owned Omarosa on that one challenge. That was pretty special. 😉
You just posed a stupid question, and I more than showed you that you have ZERO knowledge of what you are talking about. You have ZERO clue about negotiations, in fact I know fourth graders that understand that subject better than you. This leads to only two possibilities. You are either very young, and just have not been around long enough to understand yet...or you are just slow. (OK, maybe a third...you hate Trump, and your hate makes it impossible for you to see things objectively.) You do not even understand what Trumps goals are with the tariffs, you have proven that beyond a shadow of a doubt. It seems you think that if our first proposal is rejected...we lost. This is proof you know ZERO about how negotiations work. So do us all a favor, go to google of YouTube, do some studying and come back and join the discussion when you are not playing with an unloaded gun.
 
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