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Basketball Praises & Postulates - Final Four Sunday w/Championship Outlook

groundhoggator

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Nov 28, 2022
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Final Four Haiku:
Clayton thirty-four
Auburn no more; Houston's next
Gators National Champs


Praises:

- Clayton is the "X" factor - there is no other player who has demonstrated time and time again (especially in those closing moments here in the tourney) that success will occur in the ball in his hands. His ability to create his own shot for himself and others is truly majestic. It's not easy when everyone knows you're getting the rock and the weight of the team's season is on your shoulders (ex - see Broome & Flagg)

- Will Richard - his D intensity to start the 2nd half was contagious and fueled the opening 4 minutes - which reset the balance of the game.

- Golden - Continues to amaze. Stayed the course of not double teaming knowing giving up 2 to Broome wasn't a death shot - where as giving up 3 doesn't allow ability to comeback.... the body blows on Broome wore him out in the 2nd half... The other thing - is I continue to sing his praises of TO usage. In the under 8 segment - where the lead was see-sawing back and forth and he knew the Gators needed a blow - after a made basket - he called TO - and gave the team a mental reset with the 1 point lead. Florida never trailed after that TO (6:29 remaining in 2nd half)

- Alijah Martin - man - does Martin have hops - he went full Jordan at the final four - it was a thing of beauty - if Richard was the catalyst for Auburn having the most TO's in a half this season, Martin was the destroyer of hope - his 2 slams and intensity - each signifying that was a Gators' victory was approaching - were absolutely Louvre worthy as others have circulated.

- Reuben - he's our strongest low post defender and his ability to keep balls alive on the offensive end - especially after the 4th missed FT in a row - which led to Clayton sealing it - vastly underrated performance.

- Condon - he may be battling himself confidence wise on offense and his ankle is clearly impacted his jumping and setting a defensive base in the post - but never question his all out effort, his will to win and the grittiness needed to make winning plays - his ability to close out on 3 point shooters was his shining moment yesterday.

- Houston: So easy to be a Maryland and fold being down 14 in the 2nd half and down 9 late - with under 2 minutes. They never panicked and took advantage of Duke's kryptonite - their youth and lack of experience of closing out tight games. Honestly - I thought Duke-Florida was a better match up for the Gators - because of the Gators ability to use this formula and keep the game close throughout and have the pressure rest with Duke.

Postulates:

- Houston is a scary match-up for Florida. Houston's passion for defending (thinking playing Tennessee @ TN, UConn, Texas Tech x2) and their senior leadership to handle adversity and have success when the game's the tightest - this will be the ultimate test for Florida - if they are to be national champs.
- This is a defacto home game - with Houston's campus 3 hours away. The one advantage Florida will have - is they will wear those road jerseys and Golden can play up the underdog role in an Us Vs. Everyone card.

- Don't discount the value of the SEC Championship game of Tennessee/Florida in Nashville ... that game served as a good mock National Champion Exam. Playing a hellacious Defense oriented squad in their home state, with the overwhelming fan support in the home state colors. Instead of 20k of fans in a basketball stadium - it'll be 65k in a football dome. Thankfully Florida aced its course.

- All this concern about the close games Florida played in this tourney - UConn, TT, Auburn - if you're going to scale the mountain to the peak - you have to deal with the adversity and know how to close out games - Houston's done the same with Purdue and Duke this tourney plus remember down 6 in final minute @ Kansas earlier this season. Plus when they've lost - all of them have been 5 points or less. Florida is looking at a team for the first time that is as mentally tough - if not tougher than them.

- To win on Monday and cut down the nets - Florida can't have a lackidasical 1st half... you know - the one where each possession is not treasured - the unforced turnovers, getting stuck/bogged down at the top of the wings after the dribble and not finding an outlet. Watch Duke's offense to start the game - will need all 5 guys moving in concert and expect a lot of back door and ball reversal action to break down this D. Make the simple play and not the spectacular. 8 is the magic #. If Florida commits 8 TO's or less - they will win.

- Our front court will decide this outcome - need all 4 to defend, rebound, and get some 2nd chance points with offensive rebounds. If we can get 3 threes from Haugh and Condon (they will have some open chances that need to fall) - that will be positive sign. With this being a game of who gets to 75 points first, the frontcourt will need to contribute at least 20 points to the cause.

- Thought Haugh had his first surreal experience of letting the moment get to him. The FT's late and knowing the outcome hung in the balance... hope he learns from it and is better prepared when presented again (possibly as early as Monday).

- If the Gators are cutting nets down- how much are we talking about the significant contribution of Denzel Aberdeen Monday night. This is the game where I can see him making an impact - getting some vertical drives to the basket and making a couple of 3's. It would not shock me to see Denzel in double figures. His solid play will allow Golden to provide Clayton to required blows needed to be at full strength in the 2nd half (as well as Martin & Richard).

- Of course the best player on the court Monday is Clayton. Would not surprise me to see some of the following - a logo 3 before the first media TO, more facilitator of the ball in the first half and getting 14 of his game high 22 points in the last 8 minutes.

- With points at a premium - Florida has 20 fouls to use in their front court. Do NOT let Roberts (63% FT) or Tuggler (54%) get an easy layup or dunk opportunity. Foul - put them on the line ... make them earn it. If Florida is trailing by multiple possessions after the 2nd half under 8 TO - don't be surprised to see a hack a Roberts or Tuggler to come back. The one player not to foul is Cryer (90% FT)

- Officiating is hard... I've mentioned before I've officiated both football and basketball and have worked with officials on my crew who have officiated NBA, NFL and high D1 games including this march madness. I'm sensitive about critiquing officials and every fan base thinks the stripes are out to get team. With that said - there were some egregrious calls/no calls that went against Florida the last couple of games. What's shocking the most - those obvious missed calls were made by officials whose primary schedule are SEC regular season games and know Florida's style of play. Not sure of any underlying history between Golden and the players. Everyone has egos, everyone has their own lens (and biases) they see the game through. I can tell you when a coach is yelling and screaming and wanting every call (some may call the coach being passionate) even when the official clearly made the right call - subconsciouly - any toss up call is not going to go in that team's favor (don't want to reward the behavior) - Best example is baseball - if the pitcher/catcher show up the plate umpire - that strike zone will be squeezed. Are these officials - not wanting to come off biased for Florida - for example because they reside in Florida and don't want to give the impression they will favor the state school so they over compensate?

- What I'm proud of - is how the Gators responded to the questionable calls... it almost juiced them up and the tremendous response to just say screw you - we're not letting you take this opportunity away from us.

- Ron Groover, Doug Sirmons, Terry Oglesby will officiate the National Championship game.
> Groover officated UF/UConn, Oglesby officiated UF/Bama in SEC semifinal and Sirmons officiated the UF/SC game in Columbia (Richard's GW bucket)...
> Sirmons also officiated Hou/Tenn Elite 8; Oglesby did Hou/Aub in November and Groover recently did Hou/UCF.

So the crew is familar with both teams and given their wealth of experience - expect to see a game where players will play and fouls called will be clear and obvious. The biggest complaint I'd imagine reading on the boards are the "no-calls". How they call the ball screen action and Houston trying to play through the screen and the physicality of defending the ball handler will be something to watch for.

I expected lots of lead changes in this game - similar to Auburn game. Don't think the game will ever have a double digit lead and will be tight for 40 minutes.

Finally - I believe Condon will be our Popeye... he's been without the spinach for most of the tourney nursing that ankle - but I believe in him and I think he'll down that can of spinach and his play will be truly special Monday night. The front court will hit their FT's and the Gators go 20-25 at the line.

Prediction - Florida wins a buzzer beater 75-73 as Clayton's missed 3 point shot is rebounded and put back in by Condon.
Clayton with 22, Richard and Martin with 11 each, Denzel with 10, Condon and Haugh with 9 each.
 
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