Administration officials approached the contractors last week to see if they could perform the necessary repairs and reboot the system by Nov. 1. However, that goal struck many contractors as unrealistic, at least for major components of the system. Some specialists working on the project said the online system required such extensive repairs that it might not operate smoothly until after the Dec. 15 deadline for people to sign up for coverage starting in January, although that view is not universally shared.[/QUOTE]
Time to panic? No. But it's time to prepare to panic. It sounds like the earliest anyone is projecting fixes is sometime in the middle of November. That's the time when it absolutely has to work -- and if it doesn't, we should panic. Maybe not "Get in the shelter, Homer!" panic, but I'd definitely think about rebalancing the 401(k) and maybe voting in some politicians who will treat this with the gravity it deserves, rather than giving Rose Garden speeches saying that everything's basically A-OK if you don't look at the parts that don't work! Because make no mistake: If this piece doesn't work, then most of the Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act doesn't work.
Am I exaggerating? I know it sounds apocalyptic, but really, I'm not. As Yuval Levin has pointed out, what we're experiencing now is the worst-case scenario for the insurance markets: It is not impossible to buy insurance, but merely very difficult. If it were impossible, then we could all just agree to move to Plan B. And if it were as easy as everyone expected, well, we'd see if the whole thing worked. But what we have now is a situation where only the extremely persistent can successfully complete an application. And who is likely to be extremely persistent?Very sick people.People between 55 and 65, the age band at which insurance is quite expensive. (I was surprised to find out that turning 40 doesn't increase your premiums that much; the big boosts are in the 50s and 60s.) Very poor people, who will be shunted to Medicaid (if their state has expanded it) or will probably go without insurance.
Insurance that is only sold to these groups is going to be very, very expensive. Not the first year -- President Barack Obama was in the Rose Garden just this morning, touting the fantastic cost savings available to the old and sick people whom Obamacare was already helping. But if those are the only people who sign up, insurers will lose a bunch of money on these policies. And then next year, they'll ask for a lot more money.
Time to panic? No. But it's time to prepare to panic. It sounds like the earliest anyone is projecting fixes is sometime in the middle of November. That's the time when it absolutely has to work -- and if it doesn't, we should panic. Maybe not "Get in the shelter, Homer!" panic, but I'd definitely think about rebalancing the 401(k) and maybe voting in some politicians who will treat this with the gravity it deserves, rather than giving Rose Garden speeches saying that everything's basically A-OK if you don't look at the parts that don't work! Because make no mistake: If this piece doesn't work, then most of the Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act doesn't work.
Am I exaggerating? I know it sounds apocalyptic, but really, I'm not. As Yuval Levin has pointed out, what we're experiencing now is the worst-case scenario for the insurance markets: It is not impossible to buy insurance, but merely very difficult. If it were impossible, then we could all just agree to move to Plan B. And if it were as easy as everyone expected, well, we'd see if the whole thing worked. But what we have now is a situation where only the extremely persistent can successfully complete an application. And who is likely to be extremely persistent?Very sick people.People between 55 and 65, the age band at which insurance is quite expensive. (I was surprised to find out that turning 40 doesn't increase your premiums that much; the big boosts are in the 50s and 60s.) Very poor people, who will be shunted to Medicaid (if their state has expanded it) or will probably go without insurance.
Insurance that is only sold to these groups is going to be very, very expensive. Not the first year -- President Barack Obama was in the Rose Garden just this morning, touting the fantastic cost savings available to the old and sick people whom Obamacare was already helping. But if those are the only people who sign up, insurers will lose a bunch of money on these policies. And then next year, they'll ask for a lot more money.
