**This is not meant to be a fight about Billy Napier, or if Florida should fire him etc. **
Looking over the last several years of Coaching Hires and how things have played out for each coach, paints a picture of schools with Patience being rewarded for that patience. Schools with early success, not growing exponentially on that success.
It's a tight window of sample size...but, here goes.
The way I broke this down is: The head coach's winning percentage his first two years. Compared to what their school's winning percentage was the 2 years leading up to the coach's hire. It's important to consider the situation they are stepping in to whether it be good or bad. All coaches will be compared to the previous head coach. Also compared the Head Coach's winning percentage after year 2 to their own winning percentage for years 1 and 2. I tried to pick out the majority of notable power 5 head coaches hired during the period.
This covers 26 coaches that have started since 2019.
Of the 10 coaches hired in 22; 6/10 improved the school's win %. Napier, Freeman, Cristobal, Venables are the 4 failing to match.
In 2019-2021 coaching group of 16 Coaches.
7 of the 16 coaches exceeded the previous 2 Year winning percentage.
Of those 7 coaches...5 of the 7 have a worst winning percentage post year 2.
8 of the 16 coaches that failed to exceed the previous 2 Year winning percentage...7 of those 8 increased their winning percentage Post Year 2. 1 of those 7 (Holgerson) has been fired.
Kleiman was tied in winning percentage and has had a large increase post year 2 in winning percentage.
Of the 5 Coaches that significantly increased the winning percentage in the first 2 years...Only 1 coach has improved their winning percentage post year 2.
2022
These Coach's don't have any data yet as they just finished Year 2.
Brian Kelly : 73% vs. 50% winning Percentage. +23
Lincoln Riley: 69% vs 66% winning percentage. +3
Marcus Freeman: 72% vs 88% winning percentage. -16
Billy Napier: 44% vs 56% winning percentage. -12
Mario Cristobal : 50% vs 65% winning percentage. -15
Brent Venables: 64% vs 83% winning percentage. -19
Dan Lanning: 81% vs 70% winning percentage. +11
Kalen Deboer: Washington was such a mess hard to compare...But obviously great.
Mike Elko: 64% vs 22% winning percentage. +42
Sonny Dykes: 66% vs 50% winning percentage. +16
2021
Steve Sarkisian: 52% vs 65% winning percentage. -13. Post Year 2: Winning percentage 92%
Shane Beamer: 58% vs 32% winning percentage. +26. Post Year 2: Winning Percentage 42%
Jedd Fisch: 25% vs 31% winning percentage. -6. Post Year 2: Winning Percentage 75%
Josh Heupel: 68% vs 48% winning percentage. +20. Post Year 2: Winning Percentage 66%
2020
Lane Kiffin: 65% vs 38% winning percentage. +27. Post Year 2: Winning Percentage 72%
Mike Norvell: 38% vs 43% winning percentage. -15. Post Year 2: Winning Percentage 88%
Sam Pittman: 52% vs 16% winning percentage. +36. Post Year 2: Winning Percentage 44%
Eli Drinnkwitz: 48% vs 52% winning percentage. - 8. Post Year 2: Winning Percentage 64%
Dave Aranda: 61% vs 66% winning percentage. -5. Post Year 2: Winning Percentage 36%
2019
Dana Holgerson: 35% vs 60% winning percentage. -25. Post Year 2: Winning Percentage 52%
Neal Brown: 50% vs 60% winning percentage. -10. Post Year 2: Winning Percentage 51%
Ryan Day: 91% vs 88% winning percentage. +3. Post Year 2: Winning Percentage 88%
Chris Kleiman: 52% vs 52% winning percentage. +0. Post Year 2: Winning Percentage 66%
Scott Satterfield: 50% vs 44% winning percentage. +8. Post Year 2: Winning Percentage 52%
Mack Brown: 60% vs 22% winning percentage. +38. Post Year 2 Winning percentage 59%
Mike Locksley: 29% vs 40% winning percentage. -11. Post Year 2 winning percentage 58%
Looking over the last several years of Coaching Hires and how things have played out for each coach, paints a picture of schools with Patience being rewarded for that patience. Schools with early success, not growing exponentially on that success.
It's a tight window of sample size...but, here goes.
The way I broke this down is: The head coach's winning percentage his first two years. Compared to what their school's winning percentage was the 2 years leading up to the coach's hire. It's important to consider the situation they are stepping in to whether it be good or bad. All coaches will be compared to the previous head coach. Also compared the Head Coach's winning percentage after year 2 to their own winning percentage for years 1 and 2. I tried to pick out the majority of notable power 5 head coaches hired during the period.
This covers 26 coaches that have started since 2019.
Of the 10 coaches hired in 22; 6/10 improved the school's win %. Napier, Freeman, Cristobal, Venables are the 4 failing to match.
In 2019-2021 coaching group of 16 Coaches.
7 of the 16 coaches exceeded the previous 2 Year winning percentage.
Of those 7 coaches...5 of the 7 have a worst winning percentage post year 2.
8 of the 16 coaches that failed to exceed the previous 2 Year winning percentage...7 of those 8 increased their winning percentage Post Year 2. 1 of those 7 (Holgerson) has been fired.
Kleiman was tied in winning percentage and has had a large increase post year 2 in winning percentage.
Of the 5 Coaches that significantly increased the winning percentage in the first 2 years...Only 1 coach has improved their winning percentage post year 2.
2022
These Coach's don't have any data yet as they just finished Year 2.
Brian Kelly : 73% vs. 50% winning Percentage. +23
Lincoln Riley: 69% vs 66% winning percentage. +3
Marcus Freeman: 72% vs 88% winning percentage. -16
Billy Napier: 44% vs 56% winning percentage. -12
Mario Cristobal : 50% vs 65% winning percentage. -15
Brent Venables: 64% vs 83% winning percentage. -19
Dan Lanning: 81% vs 70% winning percentage. +11
Kalen Deboer: Washington was such a mess hard to compare...But obviously great.
Mike Elko: 64% vs 22% winning percentage. +42
Sonny Dykes: 66% vs 50% winning percentage. +16
2021
Steve Sarkisian: 52% vs 65% winning percentage. -13. Post Year 2: Winning percentage 92%
Shane Beamer: 58% vs 32% winning percentage. +26. Post Year 2: Winning Percentage 42%
Jedd Fisch: 25% vs 31% winning percentage. -6. Post Year 2: Winning Percentage 75%
Josh Heupel: 68% vs 48% winning percentage. +20. Post Year 2: Winning Percentage 66%
2020
Lane Kiffin: 65% vs 38% winning percentage. +27. Post Year 2: Winning Percentage 72%
Mike Norvell: 38% vs 43% winning percentage. -15. Post Year 2: Winning Percentage 88%
Sam Pittman: 52% vs 16% winning percentage. +36. Post Year 2: Winning Percentage 44%
Eli Drinnkwitz: 48% vs 52% winning percentage. - 8. Post Year 2: Winning Percentage 64%
Dave Aranda: 61% vs 66% winning percentage. -5. Post Year 2: Winning Percentage 36%
2019
Dana Holgerson: 35% vs 60% winning percentage. -25. Post Year 2: Winning Percentage 52%
Neal Brown: 50% vs 60% winning percentage. -10. Post Year 2: Winning Percentage 51%
Ryan Day: 91% vs 88% winning percentage. +3. Post Year 2: Winning Percentage 88%
Chris Kleiman: 52% vs 52% winning percentage. +0. Post Year 2: Winning Percentage 66%
Scott Satterfield: 50% vs 44% winning percentage. +8. Post Year 2: Winning Percentage 52%
Mack Brown: 60% vs 22% winning percentage. +38. Post Year 2 Winning percentage 59%
Mike Locksley: 29% vs 40% winning percentage. -11. Post Year 2 winning percentage 58%
