Armed with some unusual free time and my only responsibility being to keep my 5 year-old alive until at least lunch time, I decided to do some (internet) research on the active Gators in the NFL to see if we really do have a large amount of busts.
First, I read this article:
http://www.forbes.com/sites/prishe/2015/05/22/tracking-nfl-draft-efficiency-how-contingent-is-success-to-draft-position/#7533331f28ea
and took his conclusion that your typical NFL roster is comprised of players drafted in the following rounds:
1st: 30% of the starters
2nd: 17.5%
Undrafted: 13.6%
3rd: 12.6%
4th: 10.8%
5th: 6.4%
6th: 4.9%
7th: 4.2%
Again, these are not my numbers but they are based on the starting NFL rosters to start the 2014 season and sampled 595 players. Somehow its more likely that an undrafted player will be out there on opening day than a 3rd round selection, or later. (Interestingly, the data also shows this exact same order of likelihood for players voted to All-Pro rosters.)
Next, I started counting active Gators on NFL rosters and tracking where they were drafted. Per ESPN, we have 39 players on active rosters. They break down like this:
1st: 9 (Easley, Elam, Floyd, DFJ, Haden, Hump, RFN, Pouncys)
2nd: 3 (Bostic, Dunlap, Gilbert)
Undrafted: 12 (The good: Burton, Dunbar, Harrison, McCray, Nelson, Thompson, Trattou)
3rd: 3 (C Green, M Jones, M Wright
4th: 5 (Garcia, J Howard, Jelani, Murphy, Reed)
5th: 4 (Nieron, Cooper, Gillislee, Sturgis)
6th: 1 (Josh Evans)
7th: 2 (Trent Brown, Andre Debose)
According to the link at to the top of this thread, the average NFL career is 3.3 years. So looking at the list of players we have on active rosters, I determined which have remained in the league longer than that, shorter than that or, in the case of young players who haven't been in the league long enough yet, I simply made a judgement on if they seem good enough to pass that mark based on what we've seen so far. The number you see below is the ones who have equaled or surpassed the average mark (3 years or longer) in the league:
1st: 7 of 9 (Thumbs down for DJ Hump and Easley, though its early for both)
2nd: 3 of 3
Undrafted: 7 of 12 (Not so good: Mack Brown, Okine, Orr, Roberson, Westbrook)
3rd: 2 of 3 (No for Chaz)
4th: 5 of 5 (In first season, Garcia played in 16 games, started 5. Thumbs up)
5th: 2 of 4 (Neiron and Gillislee thumbs down, Sturgis squeaks by)
6th: 1 of 1 (Evans has had a surprisingly nice 3-year career)
7th: 0 of 2 (Too soon, but not holding my breath)
So of active players, I'm saying 27 of 39 (rounding to 70% because Easley could still turn it around) are either holding their own in the NFL or having better than average NFL careers. Now, this does not speak to the "boom or bust" label that many people use to compare hype to on-field results. For that I had to go further back (20 years) and look at drafts by year (not considering undrafted players).
Here is a quick analysis using my gut and judging players on what I think the average fan would think of them. Boom (think Fred Taylor), Bust (think Jarvis Moss), or met expectations (think Max Starks).
I'm also adjusting for when they were drafted, so I am saying that 1st and 2nd round players should be "booms" or "met expectation" guys. Anything less is a bust for them. The opposite would be true for the later rounds and a late round player who never did anything essentially met those expectations. If you were drafted late and managed to form an 8 or 10 year career, even though you never were a star, that's exceeding expectations to me and I consider you a boom.
Total drafted from 1995 - 2015: 112
Booms: 33
(Notables: Kevin Carter, Ike, Fred T, Kearse, Mike Peterson, Warren, Lito, A Brown, RFN, Bubba, Percy, Murphy, Haden, Pouncey, Dunlap, Hernandez, Pouncey, Gilbert, Jaye Howard, Floyd, Reed, Evans, M Jones)
Met Expectations: 59
(Notables: Odom, Piller, Kinney, Grossman, Crowder, Cohen, Mo Hurt, Starks, Wright, J Watkins)
Busts: 20
(Notables: Reidel, Wuerffel, Jacquez, McGrew, Rutledge, T Taylor, K Walker, T Jacobs, C Jackson, Moss, Harvey, Tebow, Cunningham, Spikes, Rainey, Easley, RoPo, Hump
This is obviously subjective and none of us will agree on all of these. I judge guys like Grossman as more favorable based on longevity in the league and reaching the Super Bowl with better offensive numbers than Chicago fans probably give him credit for, especially considering how many times they've been back to the big game since he left (zero). Hernandez is tough because on the field he was a monster and off the field he was somehow a bigger monster. It could go both ways. He is a bust in the sense that if he wasn't such a bad person he would be tearing it up in the league. If you just look at on field production he was a boom.
So to conclude, unless you do this kind of thing for every school you will never be able to make a substantial argument one way or another. Most fans look at QBs and skill position stars to base their entire argument around, good or bad. We have had our share of busts but I think some of that comes with being a high profile school with a lot of drafted players with names like Tebow, Grossman, Harvin and Hernandez. It stands out when a stud falls flat for us; not so much with Missouri or Texas A&M.
The good news is my son is still alive but the bad is I just wasted an hour and a half. Something's wrong with me.
First, I read this article:
http://www.forbes.com/sites/prishe/2015/05/22/tracking-nfl-draft-efficiency-how-contingent-is-success-to-draft-position/#7533331f28ea
and took his conclusion that your typical NFL roster is comprised of players drafted in the following rounds:
1st: 30% of the starters
2nd: 17.5%
Undrafted: 13.6%
3rd: 12.6%
4th: 10.8%
5th: 6.4%
6th: 4.9%
7th: 4.2%
Again, these are not my numbers but they are based on the starting NFL rosters to start the 2014 season and sampled 595 players. Somehow its more likely that an undrafted player will be out there on opening day than a 3rd round selection, or later. (Interestingly, the data also shows this exact same order of likelihood for players voted to All-Pro rosters.)
Next, I started counting active Gators on NFL rosters and tracking where they were drafted. Per ESPN, we have 39 players on active rosters. They break down like this:
1st: 9 (Easley, Elam, Floyd, DFJ, Haden, Hump, RFN, Pouncys)
2nd: 3 (Bostic, Dunlap, Gilbert)
Undrafted: 12 (The good: Burton, Dunbar, Harrison, McCray, Nelson, Thompson, Trattou)
3rd: 3 (C Green, M Jones, M Wright
4th: 5 (Garcia, J Howard, Jelani, Murphy, Reed)
5th: 4 (Nieron, Cooper, Gillislee, Sturgis)
6th: 1 (Josh Evans)
7th: 2 (Trent Brown, Andre Debose)
According to the link at to the top of this thread, the average NFL career is 3.3 years. So looking at the list of players we have on active rosters, I determined which have remained in the league longer than that, shorter than that or, in the case of young players who haven't been in the league long enough yet, I simply made a judgement on if they seem good enough to pass that mark based on what we've seen so far. The number you see below is the ones who have equaled or surpassed the average mark (3 years or longer) in the league:
1st: 7 of 9 (Thumbs down for DJ Hump and Easley, though its early for both)
2nd: 3 of 3
Undrafted: 7 of 12 (Not so good: Mack Brown, Okine, Orr, Roberson, Westbrook)
3rd: 2 of 3 (No for Chaz)
4th: 5 of 5 (In first season, Garcia played in 16 games, started 5. Thumbs up)
5th: 2 of 4 (Neiron and Gillislee thumbs down, Sturgis squeaks by)
6th: 1 of 1 (Evans has had a surprisingly nice 3-year career)
7th: 0 of 2 (Too soon, but not holding my breath)
So of active players, I'm saying 27 of 39 (rounding to 70% because Easley could still turn it around) are either holding their own in the NFL or having better than average NFL careers. Now, this does not speak to the "boom or bust" label that many people use to compare hype to on-field results. For that I had to go further back (20 years) and look at drafts by year (not considering undrafted players).
Here is a quick analysis using my gut and judging players on what I think the average fan would think of them. Boom (think Fred Taylor), Bust (think Jarvis Moss), or met expectations (think Max Starks).
I'm also adjusting for when they were drafted, so I am saying that 1st and 2nd round players should be "booms" or "met expectation" guys. Anything less is a bust for them. The opposite would be true for the later rounds and a late round player who never did anything essentially met those expectations. If you were drafted late and managed to form an 8 or 10 year career, even though you never were a star, that's exceeding expectations to me and I consider you a boom.
Total drafted from 1995 - 2015: 112
Booms: 33
(Notables: Kevin Carter, Ike, Fred T, Kearse, Mike Peterson, Warren, Lito, A Brown, RFN, Bubba, Percy, Murphy, Haden, Pouncey, Dunlap, Hernandez, Pouncey, Gilbert, Jaye Howard, Floyd, Reed, Evans, M Jones)
Met Expectations: 59
(Notables: Odom, Piller, Kinney, Grossman, Crowder, Cohen, Mo Hurt, Starks, Wright, J Watkins)
Busts: 20
(Notables: Reidel, Wuerffel, Jacquez, McGrew, Rutledge, T Taylor, K Walker, T Jacobs, C Jackson, Moss, Harvey, Tebow, Cunningham, Spikes, Rainey, Easley, RoPo, Hump
This is obviously subjective and none of us will agree on all of these. I judge guys like Grossman as more favorable based on longevity in the league and reaching the Super Bowl with better offensive numbers than Chicago fans probably give him credit for, especially considering how many times they've been back to the big game since he left (zero). Hernandez is tough because on the field he was a monster and off the field he was somehow a bigger monster. It could go both ways. He is a bust in the sense that if he wasn't such a bad person he would be tearing it up in the league. If you just look at on field production he was a boom.
So to conclude, unless you do this kind of thing for every school you will never be able to make a substantial argument one way or another. Most fans look at QBs and skill position stars to base their entire argument around, good or bad. We have had our share of busts but I think some of that comes with being a high profile school with a lot of drafted players with names like Tebow, Grossman, Harvin and Hernandez. It stands out when a stud falls flat for us; not so much with Missouri or Texas A&M.
The good news is my son is still alive but the bad is I just wasted an hour and a half. Something's wrong with me.
