I started working on this during the bye week. I took the offensive FEI and S&P+ rankings from footballoutsiders.com and combined them with the ncaa.com total offense and scoring offense rankings to give me a ranking of the best offensive teams in college football.
Here is a quick explanation of the FEI and S&P+ rankings...
"FEI is a college football rating system based on opponent-adjusted drive efficiency. Approximately 20,000 possessions are contested annually in FBS vs. FBS games. First-half clock-kills and end-of-game garbage drives and scores are filtered out. Offensive Efficiency (OE) is the value generated per drive by a team's offense adjusted for starting field position. OFEI is offensive efficiency adjusted for the strength of opponent defenses faced.
Offensive Drive Success rate (ODS) is the percentage of offensive drives that generate value greater than the starting field position value of the drive. Available Yards percentage (OAY) is the total number of yards earned by the offense divided by the number of yards available to be earned based on starting field position. First Down Rate (OFD) is the percentage of offensive drives that result in a touchdown or at least one first down. Touchdown Rate (OTD) is the percentage of offensive drives that result in a touchdown. Touchdown Rate After First Down (OTF) is the percentage touchdowns scored on offensive drives that earn at least one first down. Turnover Rate (OTO) is the percentage of offensive drives that result in a fumble or interception."
"The S&P+ Ratings are a college football ratings system derived from the play-by-play data of all 800+ of a season's FBS college football games (and 140,000+ plays). S&P+ ratings are based around the core concepts of the Five Factors: efficiency, explosiveness, field position, finishing drives, and turnovers.
While turnovers do not play a significant role in offensive and defensive ratings, here are the factors that do:
Here are the rankings...
Rank Team
1 Ohio St. (Big Ten)
2 Central Florida
3 Oklahoma (Big 12)
4 Oklahoma St. (Big 12)
5 Alabama (Southeastern)
6 West Virginia (Big 12)
7 Notre Dame (FBS Independent)
8 Arizona (Pac-12)
9 Louisville (Atlantic Coast)
10 SMU (AAC)
11 Penn St. (Big Ten)
12 Texas Tech (Big 12)
13 Stanford (Pac-12)
14 Fla. Atlantic (Conference USA)
15 NC State (Atlantic Coast)
16 UCLA (Pac-12)
17 Georgia (Southeastern)
18 TCU (Big 12)
19 Miami (FL) (Atlantic Coast)
20 Toledo (Mid-American)
21 Wisconsin (Big Ten)
22 Colorado St. (Mountain West)
23 Georgia Tech (Atlantic Coast)
24 North Texas (Conference USA)
25 Auburn (Southeastern)
26 Washington (Pac-12)
27 South Fla. (AAC)
28 Air Force (Mountain West)
29 Memphis (AAC)
30 Clemson (Atlantic Coast)
31 Mississippi St. (Southeastern)
32 Missouri (Southeastern)
33 Southern California (Pac-12)
34 Arkansas St. (Sun Belt)
35 Navy (AAC)
36 Louisiana Monroe
37 Ohio (Mid-American)
38 Virginia Tech (Atlantic Coast)
39 Fresno St. (Mountain West)
40 Tulsa (AAC)
41 Western Mich. (Mid-American)
42 Oregon (Pac-12)
43 Army West Point (FBS Independent)
44 LSU (Southeastern)
45 Ole Miss (Southeastern)
46 Washington St. (Pac-12)
47 New Mexico St. (Sun Belt)
48 Hawaii (Mountain West)
49 UNLV (Mountain West)
50 Iowa St. (Big 12)
51 UTSA (Conference USA)
52 Arizona St. (Pac-12)
53 Appalachian St. (Sun Belt)
54 Syracuse (Atlantic Coast)
55 Massachusetts (FBS Independent)
56 Wake Forest (Atlantic Coast)
57 Arkansas (Southeastern)
58 Kansas St. (Big 12)
59 Louisiana Tech (Conference USA)
60 Texas A&M (Southeastern)
61 Tulane (AAC)
62 Colorado (Pac-12)
63 Nebraska (Big Ten)
64 Purdue (Big Ten)
65 Nevada (Mountain West)
66 Boise St. (Mountain West)
67 Iowa (Big Ten)
68 Texas (Big 12)
69 Buffalo (Mid-American)
70 UAB (Conference USA)
71 Connecticut
72 East Carolina (AAC)
73 Utah (Pac-12)
74 Houston (AAC)
75 Virginia (Atlantic Coast)
76 Maryland (Big Ten)
77 Southern Miss. (Conference USA)
78 New Mexico (Mountain West)
79 Utah St. (Mountain West)
80 Louisiana Lafayette
81 Western Ky. (Conference USA)
82 Marshall (Conference USA)
83 Troy (Sun Belt)
84 Michigan St. (Big Ten)
85 Minnesota (Big Ten)
86 Boston College (Atlantic Coast)
87 Pittsburgh (Atlantic Coast)
88 FIU (Conference USA)
89 Baylor (Big 12)
90 Miami (OH) (Mid-American)
91 Northwestern (Big Ten)
92 California (Pac-12)
93 Florida St. (Atlantic Coast)
94 Duke (Atlantic Coast)
95 South Carolina (Southeastern)
96 Michigan (Big Ten)
97 Georgia St. (Sun Belt)
98 Northern Ill. (Mid-American)
99 Indiana (Big Ten)
100 Vanderbilt (Southeastern)
101 San Diego St. (Mountain West)
102 Central Mich. (Mid-American)
103 Florida (Southeastern)
104 Oregon St. (Pac-12)
105 Kentucky (Southeastern)
106 Bowling Green (Mid-American)
107 South Ala. (Sun Belt)
108 Middle Tenn. (Conference USA)
109 Eastern Mich. (Mid-American)
110 Temple (AAC)
111 Tennessee (Southeastern)
112 Cincinnati (AAC)
113 North Carolina (Atlantic Coast)
114 Idaho (Sun Belt)
115 Rutgers (Big Ten)
116 Akron (Mid-American)
117 Kansas (Big 12)
118 Ball St. (Mid-American)
119 Illinois (Big Ten)
120 Wyoming (Mountain West)
121 San Jose St. (Mountain West)
122 Charlotte (Conference USA)
123 Old Dominion (Conference USA)
124 Georgia Southern
125 Kent St. (Mid-American)
126 Texas St. (Sun Belt)
127 BYU (FBS Independent)
128 Rice (Conference USA)
129 UTEP (Conference USA)
Here is a quick explanation of the FEI and S&P+ rankings...
"FEI is a college football rating system based on opponent-adjusted drive efficiency. Approximately 20,000 possessions are contested annually in FBS vs. FBS games. First-half clock-kills and end-of-game garbage drives and scores are filtered out. Offensive Efficiency (OE) is the value generated per drive by a team's offense adjusted for starting field position. OFEI is offensive efficiency adjusted for the strength of opponent defenses faced.
Offensive Drive Success rate (ODS) is the percentage of offensive drives that generate value greater than the starting field position value of the drive. Available Yards percentage (OAY) is the total number of yards earned by the offense divided by the number of yards available to be earned based on starting field position. First Down Rate (OFD) is the percentage of offensive drives that result in a touchdown or at least one first down. Touchdown Rate (OTD) is the percentage of offensive drives that result in a touchdown. Touchdown Rate After First Down (OTF) is the percentage touchdowns scored on offensive drives that earn at least one first down. Turnover Rate (OTO) is the percentage of offensive drives that result in a fumble or interception."
"The S&P+ Ratings are a college football ratings system derived from the play-by-play data of all 800+ of a season's FBS college football games (and 140,000+ plays). S&P+ ratings are based around the core concepts of the Five Factors: efficiency, explosiveness, field position, finishing drives, and turnovers.
While turnovers do not play a significant role in offensive and defensive ratings, here are the factors that do:
- Success Rate: A common Football Outsiders tool used to measure efficiency by determining whether every play of a given game was successful or not. The terms of success in college football: 50 percent of necessary yardage on first down, 70 percent on second down, and 100 percent on third and fourth down.
- IsoPPP: An explosiveness measure derived from determining the equivalent point value of every yard line (based on the expected number of points an offense could expect to score from that yard line) and, therefore, every play of a given game. IsoPPP looks at only the per-play value of a team's successful plays (as defined by the Success Rate definition above); its goal is to separate the explosiveness component from the efficiency component altogether. For more information about IsoPPP, click here.
- Redzone S&P+: This measures drive-finishing ability by looking at the success rate and IsoPPP measures for only plays that come after a first down inside the opponent's 40-yard line. Coaches start adjusting their play-calling for a shrinking field closer to the 40 than the 20, and there is more separation between good and bad offenses if you look at plays in this range instead of plays inside the 20-yard line (as the redzone is commonly defined).
- FP+: This is an opponent-adjusted measure of your ability to create field position advantages. This is based on drive data instead of per-play data. For an offense, it looks at field position you create for your defense (with help from special teams, which is not yet stripped out of these numbers); for a defense, it looks at the opposite.
- Opponent adjustments: Each team's output for a given category (Success Rate, IsoPPP, and split stats like rushing, passing, redzone, standard downs, passing downs, etc.) is compared to the expected output based upon their opponents. This is a schedule-based adjustment designed to reward tougher schedules and punish weaker ones. In the tables below, the "+" designation is for measures that are adjusted for opponent.
- Garbage time adjustments: The S&P+ figures used in the tables below only look at the plays that took place while a game was deemed competitive. Garbage-time plays and possessions have been filtered out of the calculations. The criteria for "garbage time" are as follows: a game is not within 28 points in the first quarter, 24 points in the second quarter, 21 points in the third quarter, or 16 points in the fourth quarter.
- second down with 8 or more yards to go
- third or fourth down with 5 or more yards to go
Here are the rankings...
Rank Team
1 Ohio St. (Big Ten)
2 Central Florida
3 Oklahoma (Big 12)
4 Oklahoma St. (Big 12)
5 Alabama (Southeastern)
6 West Virginia (Big 12)
7 Notre Dame (FBS Independent)
8 Arizona (Pac-12)
9 Louisville (Atlantic Coast)
10 SMU (AAC)
11 Penn St. (Big Ten)
12 Texas Tech (Big 12)
13 Stanford (Pac-12)
14 Fla. Atlantic (Conference USA)
15 NC State (Atlantic Coast)
16 UCLA (Pac-12)
17 Georgia (Southeastern)
18 TCU (Big 12)
19 Miami (FL) (Atlantic Coast)
20 Toledo (Mid-American)
21 Wisconsin (Big Ten)
22 Colorado St. (Mountain West)
23 Georgia Tech (Atlantic Coast)
24 North Texas (Conference USA)
25 Auburn (Southeastern)
26 Washington (Pac-12)
27 South Fla. (AAC)
28 Air Force (Mountain West)
29 Memphis (AAC)
30 Clemson (Atlantic Coast)
31 Mississippi St. (Southeastern)
32 Missouri (Southeastern)
33 Southern California (Pac-12)
34 Arkansas St. (Sun Belt)
35 Navy (AAC)
36 Louisiana Monroe
37 Ohio (Mid-American)
38 Virginia Tech (Atlantic Coast)
39 Fresno St. (Mountain West)
40 Tulsa (AAC)
41 Western Mich. (Mid-American)
42 Oregon (Pac-12)
43 Army West Point (FBS Independent)
44 LSU (Southeastern)
45 Ole Miss (Southeastern)
46 Washington St. (Pac-12)
47 New Mexico St. (Sun Belt)
48 Hawaii (Mountain West)
49 UNLV (Mountain West)
50 Iowa St. (Big 12)
51 UTSA (Conference USA)
52 Arizona St. (Pac-12)
53 Appalachian St. (Sun Belt)
54 Syracuse (Atlantic Coast)
55 Massachusetts (FBS Independent)
56 Wake Forest (Atlantic Coast)
57 Arkansas (Southeastern)
58 Kansas St. (Big 12)
59 Louisiana Tech (Conference USA)
60 Texas A&M (Southeastern)
61 Tulane (AAC)
62 Colorado (Pac-12)
63 Nebraska (Big Ten)
64 Purdue (Big Ten)
65 Nevada (Mountain West)
66 Boise St. (Mountain West)
67 Iowa (Big Ten)
68 Texas (Big 12)
69 Buffalo (Mid-American)
70 UAB (Conference USA)
71 Connecticut
72 East Carolina (AAC)
73 Utah (Pac-12)
74 Houston (AAC)
75 Virginia (Atlantic Coast)
76 Maryland (Big Ten)
77 Southern Miss. (Conference USA)
78 New Mexico (Mountain West)
79 Utah St. (Mountain West)
80 Louisiana Lafayette
81 Western Ky. (Conference USA)
82 Marshall (Conference USA)
83 Troy (Sun Belt)
84 Michigan St. (Big Ten)
85 Minnesota (Big Ten)
86 Boston College (Atlantic Coast)
87 Pittsburgh (Atlantic Coast)
88 FIU (Conference USA)
89 Baylor (Big 12)
90 Miami (OH) (Mid-American)
91 Northwestern (Big Ten)
92 California (Pac-12)
93 Florida St. (Atlantic Coast)
94 Duke (Atlantic Coast)
95 South Carolina (Southeastern)
96 Michigan (Big Ten)
97 Georgia St. (Sun Belt)
98 Northern Ill. (Mid-American)
99 Indiana (Big Ten)
100 Vanderbilt (Southeastern)
101 San Diego St. (Mountain West)
102 Central Mich. (Mid-American)
103 Florida (Southeastern)
104 Oregon St. (Pac-12)
105 Kentucky (Southeastern)
106 Bowling Green (Mid-American)
107 South Ala. (Sun Belt)
108 Middle Tenn. (Conference USA)
109 Eastern Mich. (Mid-American)
110 Temple (AAC)
111 Tennessee (Southeastern)
112 Cincinnati (AAC)
113 North Carolina (Atlantic Coast)
114 Idaho (Sun Belt)
115 Rutgers (Big Ten)
116 Akron (Mid-American)
117 Kansas (Big 12)
118 Ball St. (Mid-American)
119 Illinois (Big Ten)
120 Wyoming (Mountain West)
121 San Jose St. (Mountain West)
122 Charlotte (Conference USA)
123 Old Dominion (Conference USA)
124 Georgia Southern
125 Kent St. (Mid-American)
126 Texas St. (Sun Belt)
127 BYU (FBS Independent)
128 Rice (Conference USA)
129 UTEP (Conference USA)
