By Franz Beard
A few thoughts to jump start your Tuesday morning:
NUMBERS THAT MUST IMPROVE FOR THE GATORS IN 2022
There is that old adage that you can manipulate statistics to say whatever you want but when it comes to football, stats tell quite a story. In the case of the 2021 Florida Gators, it only takes a scan of a few critical stats to understand why the Gators finished 6-7 last year and what new head coach Billy Napier has to do to turn the Gators around in 2022.
Here is a revealing look at seven critical statistical areas:
Scoring: The Gators scored 30.7 per game, which ranked seventh in the SEC, not bad but certainly not what was expected. If you take away the 70 points the Gators scored against D1AA Samford and the numbers dip to an abysmal 27.4 per game which is barely better than the Gators scored during the Will Muschamp and Jim McElwain years. The Gators gave up 26.8 per game, which is dreadful and ranked 11thin the SEC and 73rd nationally. The only two years out of the last 12 that the Gators gave up more were 2020 and 2017. The moral of the story: Score more points, give up fewer in 2022.
Rushing: The Gators actually led the league in yards per carry (5.48) while averaging 208.69 yards per game but there wasn’t a run by a non-quarterback that went for more than 32 yards, so the number is deceptive. With the exception of a pair of long runs by Anthony Richardson (73 against Florida Atlantic; 80 against South Florida) there weren’t many explosive runs. While the Gators ranked 8th nationally in runs of 20 or more yards (28), only nine of the runs went for 30 or more yards and just three for 40 or more. Florida’s running game was quarterback heavy and far too predictable. Defensively, the Gators gave up 163.92 yards per game and 4.46 per carry. Four games stand out – giving up 321 yards to LSU, 193 to Georgia, 284 to South Carolina and 288 to UCF. The Gators lost all four games. The Gators gave up 70 runs of 10 or more yards, which was 10th in the SEC and 93rd nationally. Billy Napier arrives in Gainesville committed to running the football, but he also knows this universal truth: You aren’t going to win many games if you can’t stop the other team from running the football.
Passing: The Gators averaged a respectable 254.2 yards per game, which was sixth in the SEC, and 7.9 per attempt. The Gators threw 27 touchdown passes. That’s the good news. The bad news is 18 interceptions, which not only was worst in the SEC but dead last in the entire country. The Gators averaged just 12.47 yards per completion, which is very average. The Gators had 121 pass plays of 10 or more yards, 7th in the SEC and 52nd nationally. Defensively, the Gators gave up 203.9 yards per game, which ranked fourth in the league. Not only do the Gators need to complete more passes to their own receivers and fewer to the bad guys, but they need to average at least 13.5 yards per reception. The Gators intercepted nine passes, which tied for 12th in the SEC. That has to improve in 2022. The Gators gave up at least one completion of 30 yards or more in 11 of their 13 games, another area that has to improve next season. Opponents had 19 completions of 30 or more yards, 10th in the SEC and tied for 64th nationally. The Gators have excellent athletes who need to make the secondary a no-fly zone and when the bad guys do catch a pass, they have to get hit and put on the ground immediately.
Total offense: The Gators averaged 462.8 yards per game (fourth in the league) and 6.6 yards per snap (second in the league, 12th nationally). Because the Gators only scored 30.7 points per game, the numbers indicate a lot of activity between the 20s, inefficiency in the red zone and way too many turnovers (19 picks, 3 fumbles). The Gators had 208 plays that went for 10 or more yards, middle of the pack (7th) in the SEC. From a yardage standpoint, the Gators were really good last year but in the last three SEC games, the Gators averaged only 351.6 yards and 15.7 points per game. Take away the Samford game and the Gators closed the season with five straight games with fewer than 377 yards and 25 points.
Total defense: The Gators ranked eighth in the SEC, 51st nationally, allowing 367.8 yards per game and 5.48 yards per play. Contrast that to Georgia, which gave up 267.9 yards and 4.15 per snap and you understand why Georgia won a championship and Florida finished with a losing record. The Gators gave up 166 plays of 10 or more yards (5th in the SEC) but 29 that went for 30 or more yards (13th in the SEC), 91stnationally. Stop the big plays and the Gators are on the right track for serious defensive improvement.
Sacks: The Gators had 37 sacks which ranked 6th in the SEC and 30th nationally. Obviously, those numbers need to improve although they aren’t all that bad. The best way to improve the pass defense is to get after the quarterback. Brenton Cox Jr. needs to have a big year. For all the talk about poor offensive line play, the Gators allowed only 14 sacks all season, which was the best number in the SEC and tied for fifth nationally. Some of that can be attributed to mobile quarterbacks and an offense that gave the option to run or throw, but it’s still an impressive number, particularly when you consider Alabama’s Heisman Trophy QB was sacked 41 times. The offensive line will be more experienced and with O’Cyrus Torrence at right guard, the pass protection up the gut – a problem last year – should be vastly improved.
Third down conversions: The Gators were middle of the pack in the SEC (7th), converting 72 times in 174 attempts (41.38 percent). Nationally, the Gators ranked 56th. By contrast Alabama converted 52 percent of its third downs. Defensively, the Gators ranked 5th in the SEC (62-176, 35.23 percent). Georgia was only slightly better (35.15 percent). Florida was 31st nationally in that category.
UF BASEBALL: GATORS HIRE TAYLOR BLACK AS ASSISTANT COACH
Kevin O’Sullivan wasted little time in hiring the replacement for Craig Bell. Florida’s new assistant coach is Taylor Black, who comes to UF after a four-year stint working in the Detroit Tigers organization. Black played collegiately (shortstop) at Kentucky and spent four years as an assistant coach at North Carolina State.
COLLEGE WORLD SERIES IS SET WITH FOUR SEC TEAMS
Auburn (42-20) secured the final spot in the College World Series Monday night by knocking off No. 3 seeded Oregon State in Corvallis. The Tigers join Texas A&M, Arkansas and Ole Miss from the SEC in Omaha.
Here is the schedule for the College World Series which starts Friday:
Friday: Oklahoma (42-22) vs. No. 5 Texas A&M (42-18); Notre Dame (40-15) vs. No. 9 Texas (47-20)
Saturday: Arkansas (43-19) vs. No. 2 Stanford (47-16); Ole Miss (37-22) vs. No. 14 Auburn (42-20)
MATT HAYES RATES THE SEC QUARTERBACKS
Here is how Matt Hayes of Saturday Down South rates the SEC quarterbacks. Here are my comments after each one.
1. Bryce Young, Alabama
Comment: He’s the reigning Heisman Trophy QB and a likely first round draft pick. There’s no question he’s an elite thrower.
2. Hendon Hooker, Tennessee
Comment: I’m still miffed at why Josh Heupel started Joe Milton over Hooker when the season began last year. Milton is a show pony. Hooker is a thoroughbred.
3. Will Levis, Kentucky
Comment: He’s got a new offensive coordinator and new receivers to throw to. Could be a boom or bust year for Levis. Pro scouts think he will boom.
4. Stetson Bennett IV, Georgia
Comment: Georgia people kept saying all last year that JT Daniels would really make the Bulldogs go. All Bennett did was keep on winning all the way to the national title. It’s easy to doubt him, but hard to argue with the results.
5. KJ Jefferson, Arkansas
Comment: He has the potential to be scary good. He throws darts and is a 250-pound sledgehammer when he runs. I would have him at No. 3.
6. Spencer Rattler, South Carolina
Comment: A year ago everyone thought he would be the No. 1 player taken in the draft when he was at Oklahoma. Now he’s at South Carolina where he won’t be playing with near the talent he had at Oklahoma.
7. Will Rogers, Mississippi State
Comment: Bet the farm that he puts up Star Wars numbers this year. He’s a third-year starter for Mike Leach so he’ll be throwing from the time he gets off the bus.
8. Max Johnson, Texas A&M
Comment: Forget the other quarterbacks on the roster including that stud freshman. Max Johnson will be the guy who makes the Aggies go.
9. Myles Brennan/Jayden Daniels/Garrett Nussmeier, LSU
Comment: Brennan has been hurt his whole life. Daniels is unpredictable. Nussmeier has the best arm. Brian Kelly never developed an elite QB at Notre Dame. Nothing has changed.
10. ANTHONY RICHARDSON, FLORIDA
Comment: Considering he’s spent the last three years (senior in high school, two years at UF) injured, this is a good place for him to be. However, there may not be a QB with a bigger upside in the SEC if he can stay healthy.
11. Zach Calzada, Auburn
Comment: He’s better than Bo Nix, that’s for sure.
12. Jaxson Dart, Ole Miss
Comment: Huge upside, big arm and Lane Kiffin will be coaching him up. Figure he will move up the ratings in a hurry.
13. Mike Wright, Vanderbilt
Comment: He’s the QB at Vandy. Enough said.
14. Brady Cook/Tyler Macon/Sam Horn, Missouri
Comment: Horn could go first round in the MLB Draft. Don’t count on him being there. Cook and Macon? They’ve thrown a combined 65 passes.
ONE FINAL PITHY THOUGHT: The Big 12 announced officially that BYU, UCF, Houston and Cincinnati will be joining the league in 2023. UCF, Houston and Cincinnati owe the American Athletic Conference $18 million to leave and none of them have $18 million to spare, but an arrangement has been made to pay it out over time. BYU as an independent has no exit fees.
This means in 2023 the Big 12 will have an awkward schedule because Texas and Oklahoma will still be in the league. The Big 12 will have 14 teams so the round-robin schedule will be thrown out the window for at least one year. The scheduling issues will last even longer if the Big 12 is unable to work out a deal for Texas and Oklahoma to make an early exit to the SEC. And there is the question of further expansion for the Big 12 once Texas and Oklahoma bolt. At least four American Athletic Conference teams (SMU, Memphis, East Carolina and South Florida) would crawl backward to join the league. Will the Big 12 follow the SEC model and go with 16 teams. It seems far more workable than 12 or 14.
There has been talk that Texas and Oklahoma could be joining the SEC in 2023, but you can all but table that idea. Since donkeys might fly before CBS sells ESPN its final season of broadcasting SEC football, you can all but bet the farm Texas and Oklahoma won’t join until 2024 when ESPN takes over the SEC contract. The exit fee for leaving the Big 12 early will be reduced to something more manageable for 2024. The SEC and ESPN are likely to chip in to help Texas and Oklahoma leave and there is a distinct possibility that ESPN will offer a TV deal to the Big 12, whose current media contract with ESPN and Fox expires in 2025. The combination of exit fees and an ESPN contract should sway the Big 12 to release Texas and Oklahoma early. The new TV deal probably won’t be as lucrative as the current contract, but the new Big 12 will have a nice television footprint so a decent – not great – deal is entirely likely.
A few thoughts to jump start your Tuesday morning:
NUMBERS THAT MUST IMPROVE FOR THE GATORS IN 2022
There is that old adage that you can manipulate statistics to say whatever you want but when it comes to football, stats tell quite a story. In the case of the 2021 Florida Gators, it only takes a scan of a few critical stats to understand why the Gators finished 6-7 last year and what new head coach Billy Napier has to do to turn the Gators around in 2022.
Here is a revealing look at seven critical statistical areas:
Scoring: The Gators scored 30.7 per game, which ranked seventh in the SEC, not bad but certainly not what was expected. If you take away the 70 points the Gators scored against D1AA Samford and the numbers dip to an abysmal 27.4 per game which is barely better than the Gators scored during the Will Muschamp and Jim McElwain years. The Gators gave up 26.8 per game, which is dreadful and ranked 11thin the SEC and 73rd nationally. The only two years out of the last 12 that the Gators gave up more were 2020 and 2017. The moral of the story: Score more points, give up fewer in 2022.
Rushing: The Gators actually led the league in yards per carry (5.48) while averaging 208.69 yards per game but there wasn’t a run by a non-quarterback that went for more than 32 yards, so the number is deceptive. With the exception of a pair of long runs by Anthony Richardson (73 against Florida Atlantic; 80 against South Florida) there weren’t many explosive runs. While the Gators ranked 8th nationally in runs of 20 or more yards (28), only nine of the runs went for 30 or more yards and just three for 40 or more. Florida’s running game was quarterback heavy and far too predictable. Defensively, the Gators gave up 163.92 yards per game and 4.46 per carry. Four games stand out – giving up 321 yards to LSU, 193 to Georgia, 284 to South Carolina and 288 to UCF. The Gators lost all four games. The Gators gave up 70 runs of 10 or more yards, which was 10th in the SEC and 93rd nationally. Billy Napier arrives in Gainesville committed to running the football, but he also knows this universal truth: You aren’t going to win many games if you can’t stop the other team from running the football.
Passing: The Gators averaged a respectable 254.2 yards per game, which was sixth in the SEC, and 7.9 per attempt. The Gators threw 27 touchdown passes. That’s the good news. The bad news is 18 interceptions, which not only was worst in the SEC but dead last in the entire country. The Gators averaged just 12.47 yards per completion, which is very average. The Gators had 121 pass plays of 10 or more yards, 7th in the SEC and 52nd nationally. Defensively, the Gators gave up 203.9 yards per game, which ranked fourth in the league. Not only do the Gators need to complete more passes to their own receivers and fewer to the bad guys, but they need to average at least 13.5 yards per reception. The Gators intercepted nine passes, which tied for 12th in the SEC. That has to improve in 2022. The Gators gave up at least one completion of 30 yards or more in 11 of their 13 games, another area that has to improve next season. Opponents had 19 completions of 30 or more yards, 10th in the SEC and tied for 64th nationally. The Gators have excellent athletes who need to make the secondary a no-fly zone and when the bad guys do catch a pass, they have to get hit and put on the ground immediately.
Total offense: The Gators averaged 462.8 yards per game (fourth in the league) and 6.6 yards per snap (second in the league, 12th nationally). Because the Gators only scored 30.7 points per game, the numbers indicate a lot of activity between the 20s, inefficiency in the red zone and way too many turnovers (19 picks, 3 fumbles). The Gators had 208 plays that went for 10 or more yards, middle of the pack (7th) in the SEC. From a yardage standpoint, the Gators were really good last year but in the last three SEC games, the Gators averaged only 351.6 yards and 15.7 points per game. Take away the Samford game and the Gators closed the season with five straight games with fewer than 377 yards and 25 points.
Total defense: The Gators ranked eighth in the SEC, 51st nationally, allowing 367.8 yards per game and 5.48 yards per play. Contrast that to Georgia, which gave up 267.9 yards and 4.15 per snap and you understand why Georgia won a championship and Florida finished with a losing record. The Gators gave up 166 plays of 10 or more yards (5th in the SEC) but 29 that went for 30 or more yards (13th in the SEC), 91stnationally. Stop the big plays and the Gators are on the right track for serious defensive improvement.
Sacks: The Gators had 37 sacks which ranked 6th in the SEC and 30th nationally. Obviously, those numbers need to improve although they aren’t all that bad. The best way to improve the pass defense is to get after the quarterback. Brenton Cox Jr. needs to have a big year. For all the talk about poor offensive line play, the Gators allowed only 14 sacks all season, which was the best number in the SEC and tied for fifth nationally. Some of that can be attributed to mobile quarterbacks and an offense that gave the option to run or throw, but it’s still an impressive number, particularly when you consider Alabama’s Heisman Trophy QB was sacked 41 times. The offensive line will be more experienced and with O’Cyrus Torrence at right guard, the pass protection up the gut – a problem last year – should be vastly improved.
Third down conversions: The Gators were middle of the pack in the SEC (7th), converting 72 times in 174 attempts (41.38 percent). Nationally, the Gators ranked 56th. By contrast Alabama converted 52 percent of its third downs. Defensively, the Gators ranked 5th in the SEC (62-176, 35.23 percent). Georgia was only slightly better (35.15 percent). Florida was 31st nationally in that category.
UF BASEBALL: GATORS HIRE TAYLOR BLACK AS ASSISTANT COACH
Kevin O’Sullivan wasted little time in hiring the replacement for Craig Bell. Florida’s new assistant coach is Taylor Black, who comes to UF after a four-year stint working in the Detroit Tigers organization. Black played collegiately (shortstop) at Kentucky and spent four years as an assistant coach at North Carolina State.
COLLEGE WORLD SERIES IS SET WITH FOUR SEC TEAMS
Auburn (42-20) secured the final spot in the College World Series Monday night by knocking off No. 3 seeded Oregon State in Corvallis. The Tigers join Texas A&M, Arkansas and Ole Miss from the SEC in Omaha.
Here is the schedule for the College World Series which starts Friday:
Friday: Oklahoma (42-22) vs. No. 5 Texas A&M (42-18); Notre Dame (40-15) vs. No. 9 Texas (47-20)
Saturday: Arkansas (43-19) vs. No. 2 Stanford (47-16); Ole Miss (37-22) vs. No. 14 Auburn (42-20)
MATT HAYES RATES THE SEC QUARTERBACKS
Here is how Matt Hayes of Saturday Down South rates the SEC quarterbacks. Here are my comments after each one.
1. Bryce Young, Alabama
Comment: He’s the reigning Heisman Trophy QB and a likely first round draft pick. There’s no question he’s an elite thrower.
2. Hendon Hooker, Tennessee
Comment: I’m still miffed at why Josh Heupel started Joe Milton over Hooker when the season began last year. Milton is a show pony. Hooker is a thoroughbred.
3. Will Levis, Kentucky
Comment: He’s got a new offensive coordinator and new receivers to throw to. Could be a boom or bust year for Levis. Pro scouts think he will boom.
4. Stetson Bennett IV, Georgia
Comment: Georgia people kept saying all last year that JT Daniels would really make the Bulldogs go. All Bennett did was keep on winning all the way to the national title. It’s easy to doubt him, but hard to argue with the results.
5. KJ Jefferson, Arkansas
Comment: He has the potential to be scary good. He throws darts and is a 250-pound sledgehammer when he runs. I would have him at No. 3.
6. Spencer Rattler, South Carolina
Comment: A year ago everyone thought he would be the No. 1 player taken in the draft when he was at Oklahoma. Now he’s at South Carolina where he won’t be playing with near the talent he had at Oklahoma.
7. Will Rogers, Mississippi State
Comment: Bet the farm that he puts up Star Wars numbers this year. He’s a third-year starter for Mike Leach so he’ll be throwing from the time he gets off the bus.
8. Max Johnson, Texas A&M
Comment: Forget the other quarterbacks on the roster including that stud freshman. Max Johnson will be the guy who makes the Aggies go.
9. Myles Brennan/Jayden Daniels/Garrett Nussmeier, LSU
Comment: Brennan has been hurt his whole life. Daniels is unpredictable. Nussmeier has the best arm. Brian Kelly never developed an elite QB at Notre Dame. Nothing has changed.
10. ANTHONY RICHARDSON, FLORIDA
Comment: Considering he’s spent the last three years (senior in high school, two years at UF) injured, this is a good place for him to be. However, there may not be a QB with a bigger upside in the SEC if he can stay healthy.
11. Zach Calzada, Auburn
Comment: He’s better than Bo Nix, that’s for sure.
12. Jaxson Dart, Ole Miss
Comment: Huge upside, big arm and Lane Kiffin will be coaching him up. Figure he will move up the ratings in a hurry.
13. Mike Wright, Vanderbilt
Comment: He’s the QB at Vandy. Enough said.
14. Brady Cook/Tyler Macon/Sam Horn, Missouri
Comment: Horn could go first round in the MLB Draft. Don’t count on him being there. Cook and Macon? They’ve thrown a combined 65 passes.
ONE FINAL PITHY THOUGHT: The Big 12 announced officially that BYU, UCF, Houston and Cincinnati will be joining the league in 2023. UCF, Houston and Cincinnati owe the American Athletic Conference $18 million to leave and none of them have $18 million to spare, but an arrangement has been made to pay it out over time. BYU as an independent has no exit fees.
This means in 2023 the Big 12 will have an awkward schedule because Texas and Oklahoma will still be in the league. The Big 12 will have 14 teams so the round-robin schedule will be thrown out the window for at least one year. The scheduling issues will last even longer if the Big 12 is unable to work out a deal for Texas and Oklahoma to make an early exit to the SEC. And there is the question of further expansion for the Big 12 once Texas and Oklahoma bolt. At least four American Athletic Conference teams (SMU, Memphis, East Carolina and South Florida) would crawl backward to join the league. Will the Big 12 follow the SEC model and go with 16 teams. It seems far more workable than 12 or 14.
There has been talk that Texas and Oklahoma could be joining the SEC in 2023, but you can all but table that idea. Since donkeys might fly before CBS sells ESPN its final season of broadcasting SEC football, you can all but bet the farm Texas and Oklahoma won’t join until 2024 when ESPN takes over the SEC contract. The exit fee for leaving the Big 12 early will be reduced to something more manageable for 2024. The SEC and ESPN are likely to chip in to help Texas and Oklahoma leave and there is a distinct possibility that ESPN will offer a TV deal to the Big 12, whose current media contract with ESPN and Fox expires in 2025. The combination of exit fees and an ESPN contract should sway the Big 12 to release Texas and Oklahoma early. The new TV deal probably won’t be as lucrative as the current contract, but the new Big 12 will have a nice television footprint so a decent – not great – deal is entirely likely.
