By Franz Beard
A few thoughts to jump start your Thursday morning:
HINT, HINT: TEXAS AND OU TO THE SEC IN 2024
While talking about how his main goal is to create a serious new brand for the Big 12 Conference, new commissioner Brett Yormak said he is “not against” negotiations for Texas and Oklahoma to leave for the SEC early. He added, “But it’s got to be in the best interests of the conference, obviously.”
Translation: The Big 12 is already negotiating the terms of the a Texas-Oklahoma buyout with the SEC, ESPN and both Texas and Oklahoma. Mark 2024 on your calendar as the year they join the SEC.
Bet the farm on it.
The new ESPN contract with the SEC is set to kick in for the 2024 football season and since the SEC will need to renegotiate its 10-year deal with the SEC once Texas and Oklahoma join in, it’s the network’s best interests to get a buyout done now. Yormak knows this. He can hold onto the Big 12 until the current media deal expires in 2025 and get nothing or negotiate a buyout that may be less than what’s on the books – in excess of $160 million for the two – and have the money to strengthen the Big 12. And, by doing a solid for the SEC and ESPN, he almost certainly will get a decent media deal for the Big 12, whose rights with ESPN and Fox expire in 2025.
This is a pretty good yardstick: Texas and Oklahoma will each pitch in with $25 million, the SEC will throw in $25 million and ESPN will toss in $25 million plus a contract that brings Texas and Oklahoma to the SEC in 2024. This deal will be worth more viewers to ESPN than the Big Ten will get by adding Southern Cal and UCLA. You can etch that in stone.
WEEK TWO, KENTUCKY: SCOUTING THE WILDCATS
Preseason rankings: Lindy’s 24; Athlon 21; Phil Steele 35
Head coach: Mark Stoops (9 years, 59-53); Offensive coordinator: Rich Scangarello; Defensive oordinator: Brad White
Last year: 10-3, 5-3 SEC; beat Iowa 20-17 in the Citrus Bowl
Last year vs. non-SEC Power 5 opponents: 2-0
Last year vs. ranked opponents: 2-1
Last 10 years vs. non-SEC Power 5 opponents: 9-6
Last 10 years vs. ranked opponents: 6-28
Last year’s offense: 32.3 points; 424.1 yards; 199.54 rushing yards (5.23 per carry); 224.5 passing yards (8.0 per attempt); 25 sacks allowed; 23 turnovers (10 fumbles, 13 interceptions)
Last year’s defense: 21.7 points; 340.7 yards; 122.08 rushing yards (3.96 per carry); 218.6 passing yards (7.1 per attempt); 29 sacks; 12 turnovers forced (3 fumbles, 9 interceptions)
Top returning offensive players: QB Will Levis (2,812 passing yards, 8.0 per attempt; 23 TDPs, 13 INTs; 107-356 rushing, 9 TDs); RB Chris Rodriguez (225-1,379 rushing, 6.13 per carry; 9 TDs; 13-61 receiving, 3 TDs); RB Kavosiey Smoke (81-416 rushing, 5.14 per carry; 4 TDs); WR Izayah Cummings (14-195 receiving, 3 TDs); LG Kenneth Horsey (6-3, 300); C Eli Cox (6-4, 293); PK Matt Ruffolo (84 points, 10-13 field goals)
Top returning defensive players: LB Jacquez Jones (85 tackles, 4 pass breakups, 3 QB hurries); LB DeAndre Square (80 tackles, 9.5 tackles for loss, 3 sacks, 1 INT); LB Jordan Wright (30 tackles, 6 pass breakups); LB Trevin Wallace (32 tackles, 2 sacks); S Tyrell Ajian (46 tackles, 1 INT, 4 pass breakups); CB Carrington Valentine (61 tackles, 5 pass breakups); P Colin Goodfellow (45.94 per punt)
It has taken Mark Stoops eight years to turn the Wildcats into a consistent, respectable program. With his second win of the 2022 season he will have moved past Bear Bryant as the school’s all-time winning coach. That is a record that has stood for 80 years. They should erect a statue of Stoops outside Kroger Field. The Wildcats have gone to a school-record six consecutive bowl games.
Until a year ago, Kentucky’s offenses were unimaginative, easy to predict. That’s when the Wildcats added some creativity to the passing game by bringing offensive coordinator Liam Coen from the NFL and quarterback Will Levis from Penn State. Coen has gone back to the pros but his successor – Rick Scangarelo – is another NFL type and Levis is back with the weight of first round NFL Draft expectations on his shoulders, but is he as good as the hype he’s getting?
It should be noted that in eight SEC games last year, Levis only exceeded 200 yards one time and that was against a Tennessee pass defense that ranked dead last in the SEC. Against the Gators in Lexington, Levis only threw for 87 yards and 41 of those yards came on one play to Wan’Dale Robinson, who has departed to the NFL. The Wildcats hope transfer Tayvion Robinson can provide the same kind of explosiveness as Wan’Dale Robinson did, but his 113 catches in three years at Virginia Tech averaged only 13.76 per catch, good but hardly what you would call explosive.
While Levis tries to find a go-to guy to fling it to, the Wildcats still have Chris Rodriguez, a 224-pound beast between the tackles who comes into the season with 2,740 rushing yards nad 26 touchdowns in his career. For a change of pace, the Wildcats have Kaviosiey Smoke, who has run for 1,306 yards and 12 touchdowns. Kentucky’s ability to run the ball the past three years was predicated on a big, powerful offensive line but graduation and the NFL have depleted the ranks to the point that there are question marks this year. Left guard Kenneth Horsey and center Eli Cox are solid players but they aren’t the caliber of departed Luke Fortner or Darian Kinnard. There are serious questions at the tackles. Can the Wildcats protect Levis from speed rushers coming off the edge? When the Wildcats need to move the chains, can they go ground and pound?
Defensively, the Wildcats run a 3-3-5 scheme that returns five starters, but the front three is brand new and there are a couple of holes that have to be filled in the secondary. The inexperienced newbies on the front will have to be able to provide pressure while still holding their own against the run if the Wildcats are to have any success. There is very little experience behind Justin Rogers, Octavious Oxendine and Tre’von Rybka so if there are injuries, UK could be in trouble.
Linebacker is the strength of the defense with four experienced, quality players led by leading tackler Jacquez Jones and hard-hitter DeAndre Square. Jones and Square are exceptional against the run and both are proven pass defender. Jordan Wright and Trevin Wallace are young but they are stars of the future.
The Wildcats lost plenty of experience in the secondary to the transfer portal, but they loaded up in the portal themselves and hope they can find three newbies to play alongside corner Carrington Valentine and safety Ty Ajian. The best of the transfers is Keidron Smith, who picked off a couple of passes and had 64 tackles at Ole Miss last year.
Because they won 10 games last year and return Levis and Rodriguez, expectations are very high in Lexington, but are they realistic? There are a lot of holes that must be filled and the schedule includes road trips to Florida, Ole Miss and Tennessee along with tough home games against Mississippi State and Georgia. It is realistic to think the Wildcats can win seven or eight games this year. To do better than that, they will have to catch a few breaks along the way, find a receiver who is capable of stretching the field, find three new starters on the offensive line and hope the young guys on defense get the job done.
Kentucky plays the Gators in Gainesville in week two. Should the Gators knock off highly ranked Utah in game one, you can bet the farm they will be nationally ranked when the Wildcats arrive for Saturday Night in the Swamp. It should be noted that Kentucky is only 6-28 against ranked teams in the past 10 years but two of those wins were against the Gators (2018 when UF was No. 7 and last year when the Gators were No. 10).
SEC BASEBALL AND THE TRANSFER PORTAL
Here is a team-by-team rundown of which SEC teams have lost the most and which ones have gained the most in the transfer portal so far.
Alabama: Of the seven lost to the portal, the most difficult to replace will be third baseman Zane Denton (13 HR, 48 RBI, to Tennessee) and outfielder Owen Diodati (8 HR, 26 RBI, to Oregon). Shortstop Edward Johnson (.367, 14 HR, 55 RBI) from Tennessee Tech was a big pickup as was Florida catcher Mac Guscette.
Arkansas: Thirteen have transferred out but relief pitcher Heston Tole (2-0, 3.77 ERA) to Texas will be felt. Former Creighton outfielder Jered Wagner (.348, 11 HR, 52 RBI) is a significant pickup.
Auburn: The Tigers have lost eight to the portal, none of them a crushing blow to the program. All-America righty Jonathan Brand (8-2, 1.40 ERA, from Miami, Ohio) is one of the better transfer pickups in the country. Outfielder Justin Kirby (.323, 15 HR, 45 RBI, from Kent State) is significant.
FLORIDA: The Gators are big winners in the portal with the additions of All-America righty Hurston Waldrep (6-2, 3.20 ERA) from Southern Miss, second baseman Dale Thomas (.284, 13 HR, 49 RBI) from Coastal Carolina and Mercer outfielder Colby Thomas (.325, 17 HR, 45 RBI). Thomas could go in the first two rounds of the MLB Draft. Seven have departed the Florida program including Guscette (to Alabama) and RHP Nick Pogue (4-3, 4.81 ERA, to Ole Miss).
Georgia: The Bulldogs lost seven to the portal and they’ve gained two good ones in shortstop Will David (.303, 5 HR, 29 RBI, Samford) and reliever Zach DeVito (4-1, 5 saves, Tulane).
Kentucky: It’s three out and nine in for UK. The best of the newbies are first baseman Hunter Gilliam (.281, 13 HR, 43 RBI, Longwood) and outfielder Kendal Ewell (.361, 14 HR, 61 RBI, Eastern Kentucky).
LSU: Ten Tigers have transferred out and six in with the two best outfielder Tommy White (.362, 27 HR, 74 RBI, North Carolina State) and RHP Dylan Tebrake (8-2, 2.71 ERA, Creighton).
Mississippi State: None of the 13 transfers leaving were significant. The Bulldogs added eight quality transfers including outfielder Colton Ledbetter (.318, 16 HR, 57 RBI, Samford) and righty Landon Gartman (7-1, 3.56 ERA, Memphis).
Missouri: First baseman Torin Montgomery (.365, 7 HR, 49 RBI) was the only important loss among the 17 transferring out. Three have transferred in.
Ole Miss: Nine are leaving including righty Jack Washburn (5-3, 3.35 ERA). Pogue and Columbia righty Sean Higgins (6-3, 5.34 ERA) are the only additions so far.
South Carolina: It’s eight out and seven in for the Gamecocks. The two incoming transfers of note are outfielder Caleb Denny (.331, 11 HR, 57 RBI, Oral Roberts) and first baseman Jacob Compton (.291, 11 HR, 55 RBI, Memphis).
Tennessee: Three have transferred out and two in. The two new guys are All-Big 12 shortstop Walter Ahuna III (.357, 8 HR, 48 RBI, Kansas) and catcher Jack Alexander (.346, 14 HR, 55 RBI, Austin Peay).
Texas A&M: The Aggies have seen 10 transfer out while six have transferred in, the most impressive of which is righty Carson Lambert (6-3, 3.46 ERA, Southern Cal).
Vanderbilt: So far 17 have departed and there have been no incoming transfers. The biggest loss is righty Christian Little (1-2, 3.72 ERA) to LSU.
ONE FINAL PITHY THOUGHT: I know this will rub some people the wrong way, but when Florida, Florida State and Miami were all good on the football field at the same time, the best recruits weren’t leaving the state in droves as they have been for the last decade. Look at the won-loss records of Florida’s big three from 1990-2002: FSU 137-24-1; Florida 130-32-1; Miami 127-29-0. During that time Florida’s big three won five national championships and played for another five. It should be noted that it was rare for Florida, FSU and Miami to lose more than a handful of outstanding recruits to out of state schools. That happens on a regular basis these days.
Florida had a dominant stretch of recruiting from 2006-10. FSU had a strong stretch from 2011-25. Miami has dropped off the charts. It is my contention that if UF, FSU and Miami had all been winning and contending for national championships on a regular basis as they did from 1990-2002, that we wouldn’t be seeing Alabama, Georgia, Ohio State, Michigan and others landing so many of the state’s top recruits.
I want the Gators to be the best team in the entire state every single year, but I’m aware that when Florida’s big three are all competing for championships every year, it’s very difficult for out of state schools to come in here and cherry pick the best recruits.
A few thoughts to jump start your Thursday morning:
HINT, HINT: TEXAS AND OU TO THE SEC IN 2024
While talking about how his main goal is to create a serious new brand for the Big 12 Conference, new commissioner Brett Yormak said he is “not against” negotiations for Texas and Oklahoma to leave for the SEC early. He added, “But it’s got to be in the best interests of the conference, obviously.”
Translation: The Big 12 is already negotiating the terms of the a Texas-Oklahoma buyout with the SEC, ESPN and both Texas and Oklahoma. Mark 2024 on your calendar as the year they join the SEC.
Bet the farm on it.
The new ESPN contract with the SEC is set to kick in for the 2024 football season and since the SEC will need to renegotiate its 10-year deal with the SEC once Texas and Oklahoma join in, it’s the network’s best interests to get a buyout done now. Yormak knows this. He can hold onto the Big 12 until the current media deal expires in 2025 and get nothing or negotiate a buyout that may be less than what’s on the books – in excess of $160 million for the two – and have the money to strengthen the Big 12. And, by doing a solid for the SEC and ESPN, he almost certainly will get a decent media deal for the Big 12, whose rights with ESPN and Fox expire in 2025.
This is a pretty good yardstick: Texas and Oklahoma will each pitch in with $25 million, the SEC will throw in $25 million and ESPN will toss in $25 million plus a contract that brings Texas and Oklahoma to the SEC in 2024. This deal will be worth more viewers to ESPN than the Big Ten will get by adding Southern Cal and UCLA. You can etch that in stone.
WEEK TWO, KENTUCKY: SCOUTING THE WILDCATS
Preseason rankings: Lindy’s 24; Athlon 21; Phil Steele 35
Head coach: Mark Stoops (9 years, 59-53); Offensive coordinator: Rich Scangarello; Defensive oordinator: Brad White
Last year: 10-3, 5-3 SEC; beat Iowa 20-17 in the Citrus Bowl
Last year vs. non-SEC Power 5 opponents: 2-0
Last year vs. ranked opponents: 2-1
Last 10 years vs. non-SEC Power 5 opponents: 9-6
Last 10 years vs. ranked opponents: 6-28
Last year’s offense: 32.3 points; 424.1 yards; 199.54 rushing yards (5.23 per carry); 224.5 passing yards (8.0 per attempt); 25 sacks allowed; 23 turnovers (10 fumbles, 13 interceptions)
Last year’s defense: 21.7 points; 340.7 yards; 122.08 rushing yards (3.96 per carry); 218.6 passing yards (7.1 per attempt); 29 sacks; 12 turnovers forced (3 fumbles, 9 interceptions)
Top returning offensive players: QB Will Levis (2,812 passing yards, 8.0 per attempt; 23 TDPs, 13 INTs; 107-356 rushing, 9 TDs); RB Chris Rodriguez (225-1,379 rushing, 6.13 per carry; 9 TDs; 13-61 receiving, 3 TDs); RB Kavosiey Smoke (81-416 rushing, 5.14 per carry; 4 TDs); WR Izayah Cummings (14-195 receiving, 3 TDs); LG Kenneth Horsey (6-3, 300); C Eli Cox (6-4, 293); PK Matt Ruffolo (84 points, 10-13 field goals)
Top returning defensive players: LB Jacquez Jones (85 tackles, 4 pass breakups, 3 QB hurries); LB DeAndre Square (80 tackles, 9.5 tackles for loss, 3 sacks, 1 INT); LB Jordan Wright (30 tackles, 6 pass breakups); LB Trevin Wallace (32 tackles, 2 sacks); S Tyrell Ajian (46 tackles, 1 INT, 4 pass breakups); CB Carrington Valentine (61 tackles, 5 pass breakups); P Colin Goodfellow (45.94 per punt)
It has taken Mark Stoops eight years to turn the Wildcats into a consistent, respectable program. With his second win of the 2022 season he will have moved past Bear Bryant as the school’s all-time winning coach. That is a record that has stood for 80 years. They should erect a statue of Stoops outside Kroger Field. The Wildcats have gone to a school-record six consecutive bowl games.
Until a year ago, Kentucky’s offenses were unimaginative, easy to predict. That’s when the Wildcats added some creativity to the passing game by bringing offensive coordinator Liam Coen from the NFL and quarterback Will Levis from Penn State. Coen has gone back to the pros but his successor – Rick Scangarelo – is another NFL type and Levis is back with the weight of first round NFL Draft expectations on his shoulders, but is he as good as the hype he’s getting?
It should be noted that in eight SEC games last year, Levis only exceeded 200 yards one time and that was against a Tennessee pass defense that ranked dead last in the SEC. Against the Gators in Lexington, Levis only threw for 87 yards and 41 of those yards came on one play to Wan’Dale Robinson, who has departed to the NFL. The Wildcats hope transfer Tayvion Robinson can provide the same kind of explosiveness as Wan’Dale Robinson did, but his 113 catches in three years at Virginia Tech averaged only 13.76 per catch, good but hardly what you would call explosive.
While Levis tries to find a go-to guy to fling it to, the Wildcats still have Chris Rodriguez, a 224-pound beast between the tackles who comes into the season with 2,740 rushing yards nad 26 touchdowns in his career. For a change of pace, the Wildcats have Kaviosiey Smoke, who has run for 1,306 yards and 12 touchdowns. Kentucky’s ability to run the ball the past three years was predicated on a big, powerful offensive line but graduation and the NFL have depleted the ranks to the point that there are question marks this year. Left guard Kenneth Horsey and center Eli Cox are solid players but they aren’t the caliber of departed Luke Fortner or Darian Kinnard. There are serious questions at the tackles. Can the Wildcats protect Levis from speed rushers coming off the edge? When the Wildcats need to move the chains, can they go ground and pound?
Defensively, the Wildcats run a 3-3-5 scheme that returns five starters, but the front three is brand new and there are a couple of holes that have to be filled in the secondary. The inexperienced newbies on the front will have to be able to provide pressure while still holding their own against the run if the Wildcats are to have any success. There is very little experience behind Justin Rogers, Octavious Oxendine and Tre’von Rybka so if there are injuries, UK could be in trouble.
Linebacker is the strength of the defense with four experienced, quality players led by leading tackler Jacquez Jones and hard-hitter DeAndre Square. Jones and Square are exceptional against the run and both are proven pass defender. Jordan Wright and Trevin Wallace are young but they are stars of the future.
The Wildcats lost plenty of experience in the secondary to the transfer portal, but they loaded up in the portal themselves and hope they can find three newbies to play alongside corner Carrington Valentine and safety Ty Ajian. The best of the transfers is Keidron Smith, who picked off a couple of passes and had 64 tackles at Ole Miss last year.
Because they won 10 games last year and return Levis and Rodriguez, expectations are very high in Lexington, but are they realistic? There are a lot of holes that must be filled and the schedule includes road trips to Florida, Ole Miss and Tennessee along with tough home games against Mississippi State and Georgia. It is realistic to think the Wildcats can win seven or eight games this year. To do better than that, they will have to catch a few breaks along the way, find a receiver who is capable of stretching the field, find three new starters on the offensive line and hope the young guys on defense get the job done.
Kentucky plays the Gators in Gainesville in week two. Should the Gators knock off highly ranked Utah in game one, you can bet the farm they will be nationally ranked when the Wildcats arrive for Saturday Night in the Swamp. It should be noted that Kentucky is only 6-28 against ranked teams in the past 10 years but two of those wins were against the Gators (2018 when UF was No. 7 and last year when the Gators were No. 10).
SEC BASEBALL AND THE TRANSFER PORTAL
Here is a team-by-team rundown of which SEC teams have lost the most and which ones have gained the most in the transfer portal so far.
Alabama: Of the seven lost to the portal, the most difficult to replace will be third baseman Zane Denton (13 HR, 48 RBI, to Tennessee) and outfielder Owen Diodati (8 HR, 26 RBI, to Oregon). Shortstop Edward Johnson (.367, 14 HR, 55 RBI) from Tennessee Tech was a big pickup as was Florida catcher Mac Guscette.
Arkansas: Thirteen have transferred out but relief pitcher Heston Tole (2-0, 3.77 ERA) to Texas will be felt. Former Creighton outfielder Jered Wagner (.348, 11 HR, 52 RBI) is a significant pickup.
Auburn: The Tigers have lost eight to the portal, none of them a crushing blow to the program. All-America righty Jonathan Brand (8-2, 1.40 ERA, from Miami, Ohio) is one of the better transfer pickups in the country. Outfielder Justin Kirby (.323, 15 HR, 45 RBI, from Kent State) is significant.
FLORIDA: The Gators are big winners in the portal with the additions of All-America righty Hurston Waldrep (6-2, 3.20 ERA) from Southern Miss, second baseman Dale Thomas (.284, 13 HR, 49 RBI) from Coastal Carolina and Mercer outfielder Colby Thomas (.325, 17 HR, 45 RBI). Thomas could go in the first two rounds of the MLB Draft. Seven have departed the Florida program including Guscette (to Alabama) and RHP Nick Pogue (4-3, 4.81 ERA, to Ole Miss).
Georgia: The Bulldogs lost seven to the portal and they’ve gained two good ones in shortstop Will David (.303, 5 HR, 29 RBI, Samford) and reliever Zach DeVito (4-1, 5 saves, Tulane).
Kentucky: It’s three out and nine in for UK. The best of the newbies are first baseman Hunter Gilliam (.281, 13 HR, 43 RBI, Longwood) and outfielder Kendal Ewell (.361, 14 HR, 61 RBI, Eastern Kentucky).
LSU: Ten Tigers have transferred out and six in with the two best outfielder Tommy White (.362, 27 HR, 74 RBI, North Carolina State) and RHP Dylan Tebrake (8-2, 2.71 ERA, Creighton).
Mississippi State: None of the 13 transfers leaving were significant. The Bulldogs added eight quality transfers including outfielder Colton Ledbetter (.318, 16 HR, 57 RBI, Samford) and righty Landon Gartman (7-1, 3.56 ERA, Memphis).
Missouri: First baseman Torin Montgomery (.365, 7 HR, 49 RBI) was the only important loss among the 17 transferring out. Three have transferred in.
Ole Miss: Nine are leaving including righty Jack Washburn (5-3, 3.35 ERA). Pogue and Columbia righty Sean Higgins (6-3, 5.34 ERA) are the only additions so far.
South Carolina: It’s eight out and seven in for the Gamecocks. The two incoming transfers of note are outfielder Caleb Denny (.331, 11 HR, 57 RBI, Oral Roberts) and first baseman Jacob Compton (.291, 11 HR, 55 RBI, Memphis).
Tennessee: Three have transferred out and two in. The two new guys are All-Big 12 shortstop Walter Ahuna III (.357, 8 HR, 48 RBI, Kansas) and catcher Jack Alexander (.346, 14 HR, 55 RBI, Austin Peay).
Texas A&M: The Aggies have seen 10 transfer out while six have transferred in, the most impressive of which is righty Carson Lambert (6-3, 3.46 ERA, Southern Cal).
Vanderbilt: So far 17 have departed and there have been no incoming transfers. The biggest loss is righty Christian Little (1-2, 3.72 ERA) to LSU.
ONE FINAL PITHY THOUGHT: I know this will rub some people the wrong way, but when Florida, Florida State and Miami were all good on the football field at the same time, the best recruits weren’t leaving the state in droves as they have been for the last decade. Look at the won-loss records of Florida’s big three from 1990-2002: FSU 137-24-1; Florida 130-32-1; Miami 127-29-0. During that time Florida’s big three won five national championships and played for another five. It should be noted that it was rare for Florida, FSU and Miami to lose more than a handful of outstanding recruits to out of state schools. That happens on a regular basis these days.
Florida had a dominant stretch of recruiting from 2006-10. FSU had a strong stretch from 2011-25. Miami has dropped off the charts. It is my contention that if UF, FSU and Miami had all been winning and contending for national championships on a regular basis as they did from 1990-2002, that we wouldn’t be seeing Alabama, Georgia, Ohio State, Michigan and others landing so many of the state’s top recruits.
I want the Gators to be the best team in the entire state every single year, but I’m aware that when Florida’s big three are all competing for championships every year, it’s very difficult for out of state schools to come in here and cherry pick the best recruits.
