By Franz Beard
A few thoughts to jump start your Monday morning:
FUNNY HOW A COUPLE OF 4-STARS CAN CALM THE MASSES
Just a week ago this time there were plenty of Gator fans thinking Billy Napier was leaning way too far over his skis, some thinking the first-year Florida football coach was about to crash and burn even before he’s ever coached a single football game at UF. Now here we are a week later and by landing quarterback Marcus Stokes and running back Treyaun Webb, some of the skeptics are willing to give Billy a chance.
How nice of them.
I wrote last week that Billy Napier knows exactly what he’s doing. He’s not going to do it the way you and I perhaps believe it should be done, but after more than 50 years of writing about college football and studying how some of the greatest of all time achieved their success, I’m convinced that it’s just a matter of time before this guy has the Florida program back among the nation’s elite. Napier is not some bottle rocket that’s going to light up the sky and then fall back to earth. We’ve seen too many of those coaches come and go in the SEC. He’s in it for the duration and if folks will simply let him do his job, he’ll deliver in a big way.
Count on it. Patience, Grasshopper.
GATORS AND THE MLB DRAFT
It’s a big week for current Gators and UF baseball signees as the countdown to the Major League Baseball Draft enters its final stages. There are four mortal locks – current Gators Sterlin Thompson, Brandon Sproat, Jud Fabian and Hunter Barco – to go early in the draft and sign. All four have the option to return but current expectations are they will be gone by the third round at the latest. The way Colby Halter is swinging the bat and handling the rigors of shortstop up in in the Cape Cod League (.306, 4 HR, 10 RBI) could move him up to fourth or fifth round which would make him likely to sign.
Among the other nine on the most likely to be drafted list, first baseman Xavier Isaac and Mercer transfer Colby Thomas will probably go no later than the third round. Another to watch is juco transfer and righty Magnus Ellerts, who has the big fast ball and sharp slider that is moving him up.
Here are the 14 who are most likely to be drafted:
Current Gators
Sterlin Thompson, RF/2B: His draft stock is rising. MLB Pipeline has him No. 29 but he could be a top 20 pick. He’ll go first round or in the compensation pick between the first and second. Helped himself enormously by showing a great glove when he was moved to second base midyear. Great power to the gaps and potential to be a 25-30 homer guy if he makes it to the bigs.
Brandon Sproat, RHP: Seventh round pick by the Rangers a couple of years ago. He’s rated No. 50 by Baseball America. He could slide into the first round as a compensation pick. Throwing 98-99 after 90 pitches against South Carolina in the SEC Tournament and Central Michigan in the regional moved him up.
Jud Fabian, CF: He turned down $2 million from the Red Sox last year. He won’t say no this time. Second rounder for sure because there isn’t another center fielder who can cover the gaps the way he does in the draft. Great power although the scouts wish he would lay off that low and away slider.
Hunter Barco, LHP: Barco seemed certain to go in the first round until he had Tommy John surgery. It’s a 12-18 month recovery so he’s dropped down a bit. Second or third round is likely since many pitchers come back stronger after the surgery. He’s committed to the draft but has the option to return if the money isn’t right.
Colby Halter, SS/3B: He’s listed as the No. 241 prospect by Baseball America, but his stock is rising because he’s showing he can play shortstop and he’s on a tear playing for Falmouth in the Cape Cod Summer League. He’s likely first 10 rounds but could sneak into rounds 4-5.
BT Riopelle, C/1B: He probably gets drafted after the last five rounds. Swings and misses too much. If he’s drafted it’s almost certain after the 10th round and if that’s the case he needs to come back and learn to make consistent contact.
Josh Rivera, SS: He’s got nice power but inconsistent at the plate. Makes the spectacular play but boots routine grounders. If he’s drafted it’s almost certain well after the 10th round. Needs to come back and work on his consistency at the plate and in the field.
Signees/transfers likely to be drafted in the first 12 rounds
Xavier Isaac, 1B (Kernersville, NC East Forsyth): He is the best pure left-handed power hitter in the draft. He hits moon shots. The only knock on him is he will have to play 1B or DH. Currently ranked No. 94 by Baseball America, No. 113 by MLB Pipeline. He’s expected to go second or third round. Figure he signs.
Colby Thomas, CF (Mercer transfer): He’s moved way up the charts. No. 81 by Prospects Live, No. 95 by MLB Pipeline. He’s probable in the first four rounds. About the only thing that could push him later is that torn labrum which required surgery. Two seasons of college eligibility remaining so he has options.
Jake Clemente, RHP (Coral Springs, FL Marjory Stoneman Douglas): Baseball America has him No. 364 but Prospects Live has him No. 182. Throws consistently in the 92-93 range but can heat it up to 96 on occasions. He seems committed to UF but if he’s first five rounds figure he signs.
Cade Fisher, LHP (Dalton, GA Northwest Whitfield): Good fast ball and a slider that really moves. He throws strikes. Baseball America rates him higher than Clemente. Rounds 8-12 seem likely. It might take a strong six-figure offer to sway him from coming to UF.
Magnus Ellerts, RHP (Woodbridge, VA/Fort Myers, FL Florida Southwestern): Strikes out a lot of hitters and doesn’t walk many. His draft stock is rising. No. 234 by Prospects Live. It’s 50-50 whether he signs or comes to UF.
Luke Heyman, C (Altamonte Springs, FL Lake Brantley): The No. 191 prospect by MLB Pipeline. Injured as a senior and that has diminished his draft stock. He’s probable outside the first six rounds. Plus power and strong arm when healthy. Seems likely to stay with UF.
Yoel Tejada Jr., 1B/RHP (Davie, FL North Broward Prep): He has great size (6-7, 220), throws hard when he’s on the mound and hits for power. His big frame makes scouts think he will add mph to his fast ball (consistent 91). Pull hitter all the way. He’ll get drafted but the scouts probably hope he stays with UF to figure out if he’s going to pitch or play in the field at the next level.
UF GYMNASTICS: NYA REED IS BACK; LEAH CLAPPER PROBABLE
A week ago Trinity Thomas announced she’ll use her COVID year to come back for one more chance to hoist the big trophy. Now Nya Reed has tweeted that she’s also coming back. There is every good chance Leah Clapper will announce she will be back in the next week or so. What this means is Florida will have the most loaded lineup in all of collegiate gymnastics next season if Jenny Rowland can keep everyone healthy.
Consider Florida’s lineup next year: Thomas is the national gymnast of the year with 20 perfect 10s in her career; Reed is a 6-time All-American with two 10s; Clapper is an All-American with a 10 on the beam; Savannah Schoenherr is a 3-time All-American; Leanne Wong is an 8-time All-American (as a freshman) with two 10s and is a former silver medalist at the world championships; Sloane Blakely had a 10 as a freshman last year; Riley McCusker won a gold medal at the world championships with the US team; Ellie Lazzari (injured last year) is a former All-American and SEC balance beam champ; Morgan Hurd (injured last year) won the all-around gold and silver on beam at the 2017 world championships; and incoming freshman Kayla DiCielo, a former bronze medalist all-around at the 2021 world championships is competing for the US national team at the Pan American Games.
ONE FINAL PITHY THOUGHT: The college football world as we know it is not coming to an end. Step back off the ledge. Breathe deeply. Everything is okay.
For now.
This isn’t to say that there will be some serious realignment taking place in the next couple of months but if there is, odds are it won’t be in the Southeastern Conference or the Big Ten. Unless, of course, Notre Dame decides to join a conference. If the Irish decide they’re going to join a conference, all bets are off, all hell will break loose and nationally pundits will be split equally among those predicting the end of the world as we know it and those thinking this is the most substantial breakthrough in the course of human events since Ray Kroc took fast food to the masses.
For now, however, the SEC and Big Ten are going to hold steady at 16 teams and wait for Notre Dame to decide what is in its best interests. The Irish, meanwhile, have options: (1) Remain independent; (2) become a full-fledged all-sports member of the Atlantic Coast Conference; (3) join the SEC or (4) join the Big Ten. Option one is ideal. Options two and three are, believe it or not, probably more enticing than option four and here is why.
Notre Dame’s deal with NBC ends in 2025. If NBC intends to keep Notre Dame beyond that, it will have to start negotiating now and bring its checkbook. CBS and streaming services such as Apple and Amazon have deep pockets. While Notre Dame won’t get SEC or Big Ten money to remain independent, the Irish have never made money the single determining factor in any deal they do. Something in the $50-60 million a year range might be all it takes to keep the Irish independent.
The ACC, which desperately wants to re-negotiate the most brain dead deal in college sports, only gets a new deal with ESPN if Notre Dame decides to take its football to the simplest and easiest path to the College Football Playoff. Winning the ACC will be easier than winning the SEC or Big Ten so that may make the ACC the destination of choice even if the money won’t be anywhere close to what the Irish could make elsewhere.
Then there is the SEC. Why the SEC over the Big Ten? Because Notre Dame likes Greg Sankey and the SEC better than they like Kevin Warren and the Big Ten. Also, because Sankey and Swarbrick are going to be buddies when it comes to pushing once again for the College Football Playoff to expand. You remember the 12-team proposal? There won’t be any problem ramming that through now that the nimnuls (ACC commish Jim Phillips, Pac-12 commish George Kliavkoff) understand their leagues can’t afford to throw another temper tantrum and join Kevin Warren to nuke a lucrative deal. Here is another reason why Notre Dame might choose to join the SEC if it goes with a conference. Sankey is happy with a 16-team SEC. He will not push Notre Dame to join the SEC and will only agree to add the Irish if they come to him and ask to join.
Meanwhile, the ACC has to figure out how to stay afloat with a rotten media deal that will leave the football serious schools such as Clemson, Florida State, Miami and Virginia Tech paupers compared to their cousins in the SEC and Big Ten. The Pac-12? Kliavkoff says he’s going to negotiate a media deal. Really? Who’s going to buy it? The Big 12 holds more cards than the Pac-12 because it can offer Colorado, Utah, Arizona and Arizona State football that’s as good as what they have in the Pac-12 and a chance to join what is already the best basketball league in the country.
So, while Notre Dame patiently plays its waiting game, the SEC and Big Ten can only wait to see what’s next. The Big 12 will do fine but the ACC and Pac-12 can only pace the floor and wait to see if there are enough crumbs to survive.
A few thoughts to jump start your Monday morning:
FUNNY HOW A COUPLE OF 4-STARS CAN CALM THE MASSES
Just a week ago this time there were plenty of Gator fans thinking Billy Napier was leaning way too far over his skis, some thinking the first-year Florida football coach was about to crash and burn even before he’s ever coached a single football game at UF. Now here we are a week later and by landing quarterback Marcus Stokes and running back Treyaun Webb, some of the skeptics are willing to give Billy a chance.
How nice of them.
I wrote last week that Billy Napier knows exactly what he’s doing. He’s not going to do it the way you and I perhaps believe it should be done, but after more than 50 years of writing about college football and studying how some of the greatest of all time achieved their success, I’m convinced that it’s just a matter of time before this guy has the Florida program back among the nation’s elite. Napier is not some bottle rocket that’s going to light up the sky and then fall back to earth. We’ve seen too many of those coaches come and go in the SEC. He’s in it for the duration and if folks will simply let him do his job, he’ll deliver in a big way.
Count on it. Patience, Grasshopper.
GATORS AND THE MLB DRAFT
It’s a big week for current Gators and UF baseball signees as the countdown to the Major League Baseball Draft enters its final stages. There are four mortal locks – current Gators Sterlin Thompson, Brandon Sproat, Jud Fabian and Hunter Barco – to go early in the draft and sign. All four have the option to return but current expectations are they will be gone by the third round at the latest. The way Colby Halter is swinging the bat and handling the rigors of shortstop up in in the Cape Cod League (.306, 4 HR, 10 RBI) could move him up to fourth or fifth round which would make him likely to sign.
Among the other nine on the most likely to be drafted list, first baseman Xavier Isaac and Mercer transfer Colby Thomas will probably go no later than the third round. Another to watch is juco transfer and righty Magnus Ellerts, who has the big fast ball and sharp slider that is moving him up.
Here are the 14 who are most likely to be drafted:
Current Gators
Sterlin Thompson, RF/2B: His draft stock is rising. MLB Pipeline has him No. 29 but he could be a top 20 pick. He’ll go first round or in the compensation pick between the first and second. Helped himself enormously by showing a great glove when he was moved to second base midyear. Great power to the gaps and potential to be a 25-30 homer guy if he makes it to the bigs.
Brandon Sproat, RHP: Seventh round pick by the Rangers a couple of years ago. He’s rated No. 50 by Baseball America. He could slide into the first round as a compensation pick. Throwing 98-99 after 90 pitches against South Carolina in the SEC Tournament and Central Michigan in the regional moved him up.
Jud Fabian, CF: He turned down $2 million from the Red Sox last year. He won’t say no this time. Second rounder for sure because there isn’t another center fielder who can cover the gaps the way he does in the draft. Great power although the scouts wish he would lay off that low and away slider.
Hunter Barco, LHP: Barco seemed certain to go in the first round until he had Tommy John surgery. It’s a 12-18 month recovery so he’s dropped down a bit. Second or third round is likely since many pitchers come back stronger after the surgery. He’s committed to the draft but has the option to return if the money isn’t right.
Colby Halter, SS/3B: He’s listed as the No. 241 prospect by Baseball America, but his stock is rising because he’s showing he can play shortstop and he’s on a tear playing for Falmouth in the Cape Cod Summer League. He’s likely first 10 rounds but could sneak into rounds 4-5.
BT Riopelle, C/1B: He probably gets drafted after the last five rounds. Swings and misses too much. If he’s drafted it’s almost certain after the 10th round and if that’s the case he needs to come back and learn to make consistent contact.
Josh Rivera, SS: He’s got nice power but inconsistent at the plate. Makes the spectacular play but boots routine grounders. If he’s drafted it’s almost certain well after the 10th round. Needs to come back and work on his consistency at the plate and in the field.
Signees/transfers likely to be drafted in the first 12 rounds
Xavier Isaac, 1B (Kernersville, NC East Forsyth): He is the best pure left-handed power hitter in the draft. He hits moon shots. The only knock on him is he will have to play 1B or DH. Currently ranked No. 94 by Baseball America, No. 113 by MLB Pipeline. He’s expected to go second or third round. Figure he signs.
Colby Thomas, CF (Mercer transfer): He’s moved way up the charts. No. 81 by Prospects Live, No. 95 by MLB Pipeline. He’s probable in the first four rounds. About the only thing that could push him later is that torn labrum which required surgery. Two seasons of college eligibility remaining so he has options.
Jake Clemente, RHP (Coral Springs, FL Marjory Stoneman Douglas): Baseball America has him No. 364 but Prospects Live has him No. 182. Throws consistently in the 92-93 range but can heat it up to 96 on occasions. He seems committed to UF but if he’s first five rounds figure he signs.
Cade Fisher, LHP (Dalton, GA Northwest Whitfield): Good fast ball and a slider that really moves. He throws strikes. Baseball America rates him higher than Clemente. Rounds 8-12 seem likely. It might take a strong six-figure offer to sway him from coming to UF.
Magnus Ellerts, RHP (Woodbridge, VA/Fort Myers, FL Florida Southwestern): Strikes out a lot of hitters and doesn’t walk many. His draft stock is rising. No. 234 by Prospects Live. It’s 50-50 whether he signs or comes to UF.
Luke Heyman, C (Altamonte Springs, FL Lake Brantley): The No. 191 prospect by MLB Pipeline. Injured as a senior and that has diminished his draft stock. He’s probable outside the first six rounds. Plus power and strong arm when healthy. Seems likely to stay with UF.
Yoel Tejada Jr., 1B/RHP (Davie, FL North Broward Prep): He has great size (6-7, 220), throws hard when he’s on the mound and hits for power. His big frame makes scouts think he will add mph to his fast ball (consistent 91). Pull hitter all the way. He’ll get drafted but the scouts probably hope he stays with UF to figure out if he’s going to pitch or play in the field at the next level.
UF GYMNASTICS: NYA REED IS BACK; LEAH CLAPPER PROBABLE
A week ago Trinity Thomas announced she’ll use her COVID year to come back for one more chance to hoist the big trophy. Now Nya Reed has tweeted that she’s also coming back. There is every good chance Leah Clapper will announce she will be back in the next week or so. What this means is Florida will have the most loaded lineup in all of collegiate gymnastics next season if Jenny Rowland can keep everyone healthy.
Consider Florida’s lineup next year: Thomas is the national gymnast of the year with 20 perfect 10s in her career; Reed is a 6-time All-American with two 10s; Clapper is an All-American with a 10 on the beam; Savannah Schoenherr is a 3-time All-American; Leanne Wong is an 8-time All-American (as a freshman) with two 10s and is a former silver medalist at the world championships; Sloane Blakely had a 10 as a freshman last year; Riley McCusker won a gold medal at the world championships with the US team; Ellie Lazzari (injured last year) is a former All-American and SEC balance beam champ; Morgan Hurd (injured last year) won the all-around gold and silver on beam at the 2017 world championships; and incoming freshman Kayla DiCielo, a former bronze medalist all-around at the 2021 world championships is competing for the US national team at the Pan American Games.
ONE FINAL PITHY THOUGHT: The college football world as we know it is not coming to an end. Step back off the ledge. Breathe deeply. Everything is okay.
For now.
This isn’t to say that there will be some serious realignment taking place in the next couple of months but if there is, odds are it won’t be in the Southeastern Conference or the Big Ten. Unless, of course, Notre Dame decides to join a conference. If the Irish decide they’re going to join a conference, all bets are off, all hell will break loose and nationally pundits will be split equally among those predicting the end of the world as we know it and those thinking this is the most substantial breakthrough in the course of human events since Ray Kroc took fast food to the masses.
For now, however, the SEC and Big Ten are going to hold steady at 16 teams and wait for Notre Dame to decide what is in its best interests. The Irish, meanwhile, have options: (1) Remain independent; (2) become a full-fledged all-sports member of the Atlantic Coast Conference; (3) join the SEC or (4) join the Big Ten. Option one is ideal. Options two and three are, believe it or not, probably more enticing than option four and here is why.
Notre Dame’s deal with NBC ends in 2025. If NBC intends to keep Notre Dame beyond that, it will have to start negotiating now and bring its checkbook. CBS and streaming services such as Apple and Amazon have deep pockets. While Notre Dame won’t get SEC or Big Ten money to remain independent, the Irish have never made money the single determining factor in any deal they do. Something in the $50-60 million a year range might be all it takes to keep the Irish independent.
The ACC, which desperately wants to re-negotiate the most brain dead deal in college sports, only gets a new deal with ESPN if Notre Dame decides to take its football to the simplest and easiest path to the College Football Playoff. Winning the ACC will be easier than winning the SEC or Big Ten so that may make the ACC the destination of choice even if the money won’t be anywhere close to what the Irish could make elsewhere.
Then there is the SEC. Why the SEC over the Big Ten? Because Notre Dame likes Greg Sankey and the SEC better than they like Kevin Warren and the Big Ten. Also, because Sankey and Swarbrick are going to be buddies when it comes to pushing once again for the College Football Playoff to expand. You remember the 12-team proposal? There won’t be any problem ramming that through now that the nimnuls (ACC commish Jim Phillips, Pac-12 commish George Kliavkoff) understand their leagues can’t afford to throw another temper tantrum and join Kevin Warren to nuke a lucrative deal. Here is another reason why Notre Dame might choose to join the SEC if it goes with a conference. Sankey is happy with a 16-team SEC. He will not push Notre Dame to join the SEC and will only agree to add the Irish if they come to him and ask to join.
Meanwhile, the ACC has to figure out how to stay afloat with a rotten media deal that will leave the football serious schools such as Clemson, Florida State, Miami and Virginia Tech paupers compared to their cousins in the SEC and Big Ten. The Pac-12? Kliavkoff says he’s going to negotiate a media deal. Really? Who’s going to buy it? The Big 12 holds more cards than the Pac-12 because it can offer Colorado, Utah, Arizona and Arizona State football that’s as good as what they have in the Pac-12 and a chance to join what is already the best basketball league in the country.
So, while Notre Dame patiently plays its waiting game, the SEC and Big Ten can only wait to see what’s next. The Big 12 will do fine but the ACC and Pac-12 can only pace the floor and wait to see if there are enough crumbs to survive.
