Let me get some thoughts down, so people understand where I'm coming from.
First some background info that some or perhaps even most of you already understand.
When a High School recruit or a Portal Target enroll at UF, the NIL package is typically 2 pieces: Signing Bonus and then a monthly stipend.
Teams who don't have unlimited funds have to find the appropriate mix across these 2 channels. Those with unlimited funds don't have to be as efficient and can pay top dollar in both channels. If your team starts to lose, your costs (for HS and Portal and to retain) go higher due to the instability tax , only making it that much more important to be efficient.
As a fanbase we are most excited about Recruiting Rankings, but here are the concerns with focusing too much on HS kids:
If I were to make analogy that includes MLB, would you rather have a young toolsy Double A player with huge upside or an established veteran who is already performing and can help your team now? Here is the kicker...that Double A player is a free agent and can leave you at any time (and keep that signing bonus). This equation used to be an even more no brainer when players only got 1 free transfer, at that point the veteran is not a free agent but the double A player is. Now with unlimited transfers they are both free agents, though I think there's still at least a minor reluctance to transfer again, but yes I acknowledge this changes the portal value a bit. So, that leaves us with the only thing we are kind of guaranteed and that is Year 1, because Year 2 is not promised on either channel. There's no argument when you look at it from the Year 1 lens. I said kind of guaranteed Year 1 because we occasionally see knuckleheads leave even before their 1st season.
One thing that must be understood and that is positions transfer at different rates. Out of state recruits transfer more than in-state recruits. There is certainly a moneyball aspect to this in terms of which positions you should "buy" from HS and which from the portal and how much to pay either side. There are people who do this type of analytics and they have been in contact with the UF staff (and BD) and it's likely that the UF staff also (now) does this level of data crunching. The "just go get Top 5 classes" is a 2017 mindset and a huge oversimplification. It's imperative we continue to get smarter on how we allocate funds.
First some background info that some or perhaps even most of you already understand.
When a High School recruit or a Portal Target enroll at UF, the NIL package is typically 2 pieces: Signing Bonus and then a monthly stipend.
Teams who don't have unlimited funds have to find the appropriate mix across these 2 channels. Those with unlimited funds don't have to be as efficient and can pay top dollar in both channels. If your team starts to lose, your costs (for HS and Portal and to retain) go higher due to the instability tax , only making it that much more important to be efficient.
As a fanbase we are most excited about Recruiting Rankings, but here are the concerns with focusing too much on HS kids:
- Very few perform at a strong level in Year 1, regardless of ranking. It's what comes from being 18 years old and the majority of the starters are 20-22 years of age. Yet this is the year they get the signing bonus and a strong monthly stipend. It's how you sold them in choosing your school. You would be surprised at how big these signing bonuses were. If I told you what Will Norman got, you would be quite surprised. Poof...got nothing for it.
- High School kids are transferring out at an unprecedented rates
- Top 500 recruits in the 2021 class - 244 have portaled out (49%)
- Top 500 recruits in the 2022 class - 189 have portaled out (38%)
- Top 500 recruits in the 2023 class - 66 have portaled out (13% only made it thru 1 season)
- These numbers will continue going up this week until the portal closes again
If I were to make analogy that includes MLB, would you rather have a young toolsy Double A player with huge upside or an established veteran who is already performing and can help your team now? Here is the kicker...that Double A player is a free agent and can leave you at any time (and keep that signing bonus). This equation used to be an even more no brainer when players only got 1 free transfer, at that point the veteran is not a free agent but the double A player is. Now with unlimited transfers they are both free agents, though I think there's still at least a minor reluctance to transfer again, but yes I acknowledge this changes the portal value a bit. So, that leaves us with the only thing we are kind of guaranteed and that is Year 1, because Year 2 is not promised on either channel. There's no argument when you look at it from the Year 1 lens. I said kind of guaranteed Year 1 because we occasionally see knuckleheads leave even before their 1st season.
One thing that must be understood and that is positions transfer at different rates. Out of state recruits transfer more than in-state recruits. There is certainly a moneyball aspect to this in terms of which positions you should "buy" from HS and which from the portal and how much to pay either side. There are people who do this type of analytics and they have been in contact with the UF staff (and BD) and it's likely that the UF staff also (now) does this level of data crunching. The "just go get Top 5 classes" is a 2017 mindset and a huge oversimplification. It's imperative we continue to get smarter on how we allocate funds.
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