Franz Beard:
A few thoughts to jump start your Wednesday morning:
The Gators and Yogi Berra
1. “Make a game plan and stick to it, unless it’s not working” – Yogi Berra
On more than one occasion, Billy Napier has told us that he’s got a plan that has worked in the past, that it will work again and that the only thing necessary is to stick with it. The Gators are 5-2 and while there are no gimmes in the last five games, a 7-5 season is more than do-able. Eight wins seemed like a pipedream after the Kentucky loss, but it’s not out of the question. After last year's 6-7, this is progress and the plan is definitely working.
After six games in which the passing game seemed way too much dink and dunk, the Gators went downfield early and often against South Carolina. Graham Mertz made throws a lot of folks didn’t think possible, like that 45-yard dime he dropped to Kahleil Jackson while on the run or that 26-yarder to Ricky Pearsall on fourth-and-10 on the game-winning drive. Going vertical on fourth-and-10? Whodathunkit?
This wasn’t a new plan for Napier. It was simply a matter of patiently waiting to surround Mertz with the personnel necessary to implement more downfield throws into the offense. It’s not all that dissimilar from what happened in year two at Louisiana. Napier stuck with the plan and to the untrained eye it probably did seem like he changed the offense, but this is a simple case of the offense evolving to the added threats of Jackson, Tre Wilson and Arlis Boardingham.
2. “It’s tough to make predictions, especially about the future.” – Yogi Berra
The Las Vegas oddsmakers and Athlon both predicted a 5-7 record. Stewart Mandel of The Athletic predicted 3-9, 1-7 in the SEC. Obviously, the Gators have met expectations for Vegas and Athlon and they’ve exceeded Mandel.
Athlon, Phil Steele and Lindy’s projected Graham Mertz as the No. 13 QB in the SEC. Lindy’s had the Florida receivers 11th while Athlon had them 12th. Mertz is obviously one of the better QBs in the SEC and it’s going to get better as the season progresses. We tend to forget he’s working in a brand new offense with all new receivers after his years at Wisconsin. As for the receivers, consider it the Billy Gonzales effect that they rarely drop a pass and they run crisp, precise routes.
All three publications ranked Florida’s defensive units among the worst in the SEC. While the Gators are still very much a defensive work in progress, they’re a superior unit to the 2022 team. The biggest indicator is big plays (10 or more yards). A year ago the Gators were 13th in the SEC and 118th nationally when they gave up 204 plays of 10 or more yards, a whopping 83 of 20-30 yards. Seven games into 2023, the Gators are tied for fourth in the SEC and 37th nationally. They’ve allowed 77 plays of 10 or more yards, but only 44 of 20-30 yards. Another indicator is third downs. A year ago the Gators were dead last and 128th in the nation at getting teams off the field (49.71 percent conversions). This year the Gators are third in the SEC, 12th nationally, allowing only 29.71 percent conversions. Give plenty of credit to defensive coordinator Austin Armstrong whose attack mode fits the personality of this defense quite well. He's got real studs at linebacker in Scooby Williams and Shemar James, plus old hand Teradja Mitchell, the Ohio State transfer, seems to be just the leader they need. Also a thumbs up for Tyreak Sapp. Napier says Tyreak is inspirational to teammates and you’re always a better person for being around him.
3. “If the world was perfect, it wouldn’t be.” – Yogi Berra
Billy Napier isn’t perfect although a lot of Gator fans seem to think he should be. He’s 11-9 through 20 games at UF. He was 11-9 in his first 20 games at Louisiana, also. He was 29-3 after that. Now, no one is saying he’ll go 29-3 over his next 32 games because the SEC schedule will be brutal, but the personnel and depth will continue to improve and the days of break even seasons will be in the rearview.
Currently the Gators have the No. 3 recruiting class for 2024 (per 247Sports) and there is reason to believe they’ll either hold onto third or possibly move a notch higher. Recruiting is far from perfect, but history tells us the teams that recruit the best are the teams that win the most.
Napier is a relentless recruiter. His 5-star QB recruit – DJ Lagway of Willis, Texas – might very well prove to be the best quarterback in a 2024 class that is loaded at the position. When you recruit elite players at the QB position, it tends to result in outstanding classes top to bottom.
It should also be noted that Graham Mertz was the No. 7 QB in the entire 2019 recruiting class and the highest ranked recruit at any position in Wisconsin history. He wasn’t perfect at Wisconsin. He’s not perfect at Florida, either, but he’s really, really good and he’s playing more like the elite quarterback he was projected to be at UF than he ever did at Wisconsin.
4. “If you don’t know where you’re going, when you get there you’ll be lost.” – Yogi Berra
Immediately after the Kentucky game, social media was scorching hot with Fire Billy suggestions. Well, that wasn’t anywhere close to happening then and it’s nowhere close to happening now. None of the three previous coaches since 2011 have made it four full years on the job. Expect Billy Napier to be here a long, long time.
In a couple of candid conversations I’ve had with athletic director Scott Stricklin, he’s made it perfectly clear that Billy Napier will be given the time and resources to rebuild the Florida program. The reason Napier was hired was his detailed plan of not just how to resuscitate a football program but how to sustain excellence. That convinced Stricklin that Billy Napier was just the right guy to stop the revolving door of coaches. From 1990-2010, Florida was the winningest team in all of college football – 210-51-1 – with three national championships and eight SEC titles. From 2011-2021, the Gators were 87-52. That’s 53 fewer wins than Alabama, 29 fewer than Georgia.
Don’t blame Billy Napier for the state of the Florida program when he arrived, but do show some patience. This rebuild isn’t a one or even a two-year project, but Napier knows where he’s going and he won’t be lost when he gets there.
A few thoughts to jump start your Wednesday morning:
The Gators and Yogi Berra
1. “Make a game plan and stick to it, unless it’s not working” – Yogi Berra
On more than one occasion, Billy Napier has told us that he’s got a plan that has worked in the past, that it will work again and that the only thing necessary is to stick with it. The Gators are 5-2 and while there are no gimmes in the last five games, a 7-5 season is more than do-able. Eight wins seemed like a pipedream after the Kentucky loss, but it’s not out of the question. After last year's 6-7, this is progress and the plan is definitely working.
After six games in which the passing game seemed way too much dink and dunk, the Gators went downfield early and often against South Carolina. Graham Mertz made throws a lot of folks didn’t think possible, like that 45-yard dime he dropped to Kahleil Jackson while on the run or that 26-yarder to Ricky Pearsall on fourth-and-10 on the game-winning drive. Going vertical on fourth-and-10? Whodathunkit?
This wasn’t a new plan for Napier. It was simply a matter of patiently waiting to surround Mertz with the personnel necessary to implement more downfield throws into the offense. It’s not all that dissimilar from what happened in year two at Louisiana. Napier stuck with the plan and to the untrained eye it probably did seem like he changed the offense, but this is a simple case of the offense evolving to the added threats of Jackson, Tre Wilson and Arlis Boardingham.
2. “It’s tough to make predictions, especially about the future.” – Yogi Berra
The Las Vegas oddsmakers and Athlon both predicted a 5-7 record. Stewart Mandel of The Athletic predicted 3-9, 1-7 in the SEC. Obviously, the Gators have met expectations for Vegas and Athlon and they’ve exceeded Mandel.
Athlon, Phil Steele and Lindy’s projected Graham Mertz as the No. 13 QB in the SEC. Lindy’s had the Florida receivers 11th while Athlon had them 12th. Mertz is obviously one of the better QBs in the SEC and it’s going to get better as the season progresses. We tend to forget he’s working in a brand new offense with all new receivers after his years at Wisconsin. As for the receivers, consider it the Billy Gonzales effect that they rarely drop a pass and they run crisp, precise routes.
All three publications ranked Florida’s defensive units among the worst in the SEC. While the Gators are still very much a defensive work in progress, they’re a superior unit to the 2022 team. The biggest indicator is big plays (10 or more yards). A year ago the Gators were 13th in the SEC and 118th nationally when they gave up 204 plays of 10 or more yards, a whopping 83 of 20-30 yards. Seven games into 2023, the Gators are tied for fourth in the SEC and 37th nationally. They’ve allowed 77 plays of 10 or more yards, but only 44 of 20-30 yards. Another indicator is third downs. A year ago the Gators were dead last and 128th in the nation at getting teams off the field (49.71 percent conversions). This year the Gators are third in the SEC, 12th nationally, allowing only 29.71 percent conversions. Give plenty of credit to defensive coordinator Austin Armstrong whose attack mode fits the personality of this defense quite well. He's got real studs at linebacker in Scooby Williams and Shemar James, plus old hand Teradja Mitchell, the Ohio State transfer, seems to be just the leader they need. Also a thumbs up for Tyreak Sapp. Napier says Tyreak is inspirational to teammates and you’re always a better person for being around him.
3. “If the world was perfect, it wouldn’t be.” – Yogi Berra
Billy Napier isn’t perfect although a lot of Gator fans seem to think he should be. He’s 11-9 through 20 games at UF. He was 11-9 in his first 20 games at Louisiana, also. He was 29-3 after that. Now, no one is saying he’ll go 29-3 over his next 32 games because the SEC schedule will be brutal, but the personnel and depth will continue to improve and the days of break even seasons will be in the rearview.
Currently the Gators have the No. 3 recruiting class for 2024 (per 247Sports) and there is reason to believe they’ll either hold onto third or possibly move a notch higher. Recruiting is far from perfect, but history tells us the teams that recruit the best are the teams that win the most.
Napier is a relentless recruiter. His 5-star QB recruit – DJ Lagway of Willis, Texas – might very well prove to be the best quarterback in a 2024 class that is loaded at the position. When you recruit elite players at the QB position, it tends to result in outstanding classes top to bottom.
It should also be noted that Graham Mertz was the No. 7 QB in the entire 2019 recruiting class and the highest ranked recruit at any position in Wisconsin history. He wasn’t perfect at Wisconsin. He’s not perfect at Florida, either, but he’s really, really good and he’s playing more like the elite quarterback he was projected to be at UF than he ever did at Wisconsin.
4. “If you don’t know where you’re going, when you get there you’ll be lost.” – Yogi Berra
Immediately after the Kentucky game, social media was scorching hot with Fire Billy suggestions. Well, that wasn’t anywhere close to happening then and it’s nowhere close to happening now. None of the three previous coaches since 2011 have made it four full years on the job. Expect Billy Napier to be here a long, long time.
In a couple of candid conversations I’ve had with athletic director Scott Stricklin, he’s made it perfectly clear that Billy Napier will be given the time and resources to rebuild the Florida program. The reason Napier was hired was his detailed plan of not just how to resuscitate a football program but how to sustain excellence. That convinced Stricklin that Billy Napier was just the right guy to stop the revolving door of coaches. From 1990-2010, Florida was the winningest team in all of college football – 210-51-1 – with three national championships and eight SEC titles. From 2011-2021, the Gators were 87-52. That’s 53 fewer wins than Alabama, 29 fewer than Georgia.
Don’t blame Billy Napier for the state of the Florida program when he arrived, but do show some patience. This rebuild isn’t a one or even a two-year project, but Napier knows where he’s going and he won’t be lost when he gets there.
