College football playoff scenarios...

[Gator Fever]

The first rankings are released after next week's games but looking at schedules there looks to be a decent chance there will be a big headache at the end on choosing the least team to get in.

My thoughts as of now would be 3 of the teams would be the SECCG winner, the OSU-Michigan winner and an undefeated Clemson if they stick with that young QB.

I assume the PAC 12 winner will have at least 2 losses but their big headache would be what do with a 1 loss Big 12 champ and the loser of the Tenn/Georgia game if that is their lone loss.

They have never let a 1 loss non-power 5 champ in over a 1 loss champ before but you have never had a situation like this before either. If Bama wins out Tenn would have the best win and loss.

I think what they would end up doing is putting the Tenn/Georgia winner in the playoff over a 1 loss Big 12 champ if their lone loss is in the SECCG to a 1 loss Bama. If the Georgia/Tenn winner beats Bama in the SECCG then it's going to be real close I think on who the committee let's in.

 

[ocalaman]

The Ohio State/Michigan winner gets in, assuming they run the table. The Pac 12 winner is probably out unless a lot of other things happen. That's because Georgia beat Oregon so bad and Utah lost to Florida. If TCU wins the Big 12 undefeated, I think they probably get in. They've beaten 3 ranked teams in a row and their toughest game left is at Texas. If they win out, I think they get in. I don't think a 1 loss Big 12 team makes the top 4. Clemson isn't as good as they have been and their toughest game remaining is against South Carolina on 11/26. But if they're undefeated, they get in. The SEC is the hardest to figure. The Tennessee/Georgia game is almost assuredly in, assuming the winner is undefeated going to the SEC title game. Alabama has a week off to prepare for LSU and if they win that game, they will win out and go to Atlanta. This is not the juggernaut Bama teams of the past, but Nick Saban is a great motivator and with the talent they have I think they will win the SEC title game and make the Final 4. The what happens to Georgia and/or Tennessee? If Bama loses in Atlanta, of course, they're out. But if they beat an undefeated GA/TN, does the loser get in? I just don't think Tennessee's defense can stop Georgia and they haven't faced a defense anywhere near the caliber of the Bulldogs. Plus, I think Kentucky is overhyped and they will lose to Tennessee and Georgia. Tennessee may have problems with South Carolina's defense and running gamer. So my guess is that the Final 4 will be Ohio State, Clemson, Alabama or Georgia and TCU.

 

[Gator Fever]

Some wrenches will be thrown into the mix but if GA beat Bama and a 1 loss Tennessee it's going to be a difficult decision for the committee with a 1 loss Big 12 champ. I think if GA lost to Tenn who beat Bama in the SECCG they might leave them out if Oregon has 2 plus losses.

 

[ocalaman]

Some wrenches will be thrown into the mix but if GA beat Bama and a 1 loss Tennessee it's going to be a difficult decision for the committee with a 1 loss Big 12 champ. I think if GA lost to Tenn who beat Bama in the SECCG they might leave them out if Oregon has 2 plus losses.

TCU is still unbeaten and other than a game in November at Texas, they'll be heavily favored in their remaining games.

 

[Gator Fever]

Undefeated teams that control their own destiny:

Georgia, FSU, NC, OK, Michigan, OSU, Penn State, WA

1 loss teams that likely control their own destiny if they win out including their championship game:


ACC: Duke and Louisville
Big10: Iowa
Big12: Texas
PAC12: USC, Utah, Oregon and Oregon State
SEC: Mizzu, TN, Bama and Ole Miss*

* Ole Miss can't be involved in a tiebreaker with Bama and make the SEC championship game.

 

[Countygator1]

Undefeated teams that control their own destiny:

Georgia, FSU, NC, OK, Michigan, OSU, Penn State, WA

1 loss teams that likely control their own destiny if they win out including their championship game:


ACC: Duke and Louisville
Big10: Iowa
Big12: Texas
PAC12: USC, Utah, Oregon and Oregon State
SEC: Mizzu, TN, Bama and Ole Miss*

* Ole Miss can't be involved in a tiebreaker with Bama and make the SEC championship game.

In my opinion a 1 loss acc team would not make the final 4. Also, a 1 loss sec team won't make it unless it's georgia or alabama. Again, just my opinion.

 

[Gator Fever]

In my opinion a 1 loss acc team would not make the final 4. Also, a 1 loss sec team won't make it unless it's georgia or alabama. Again, just my opinion.

Most likely there wont be 5 undefeated/1 loss power 5 champs so I think its likely a 1 loss ACC champ gets in. As far as the SEC I think if some crazy way TN or Mizzu ran the table from this point on they would be very likely in also. If there was a situation like that the SEC losing in a lot of big out of conference games would complicate things if there were 5 undefeated/1 loss power 5 champs though. A 1 loss OSU, Penn State or Michigan that isn't a conference champ could possibly throw a wrench into things also.

 

[Countygator1]

I agree. Problem for SEC is that ACC handled us in the big mathups and Texas beat bama at bama. So you've got OU, Texas, OSU, Mich, NC, FSU, Washington, Oregon, and even usc hanging around. Will be very interesting this year for sure.

 

[Gator Fever]

Undefeated teams that control their own destiny:

Georgia, FSU, OK, Michigan, OSU, WA

1 loss teams that likely control their own destiny if they win out including their conference championship game:


ACC: NC* and Louisville
Big10: Penn State*
Big12: Texas
PAC12: Utah, Oregon and Oregon State
SEC: Mizzu, Bama and Ole Miss*

* Ole Miss can't be involved in a tiebreaker with Bama and make the SEC championship game.

* NC with that bad loss would likely need an undefeated FSU in the ACCCG to get in if there are 5 undefeated/1 loss contenders. The comittee likes big wins better but that is a really bad loss to have.

* Penn State likely loses out on making the Big10 CG in a 3 way tie so it will be hard for them to get in if that doesn't change.

 

[ocalaman]

There's a possibility the SEC could miss out this year. If Ohio State, Washington, Oklahoma and FSU stay unbeaten and Georgia loses in the SEC title game, even to a 1 loss Alabama, I think the SEC doesn't get anyone in. Also, the the loser of a close loss in game between an undefeated Ohio State and Michigan could get in ahead of a 1 loss SEC team. Long way off to speculate, but neither Georgia or Alabama are as good as they have been and it would be good for the game to see new faces in the Final 4 - except I would hate to see the Noles there.

 

[Gator Fever]

There's a possibility the SEC could miss out this year. If Ohio State, Washington, Oklahoma and FSU stay unbeaten and Georgia loses in the SEC title game, even to a 1 loss Alabama, I think the SEC doesn't get anyone in. Also, the the loser of a close loss in game between an undefeated Ohio State and Michigan could get in ahead of a 1 loss SEC team. Long way off to speculate, but neither Georgia or Alabama are as good as they have been and it would be good for the game to see new faces in the Final 4 - except I would hate to see the Noles there.

Yep GA would be out in that scenario. I think OSU is the only possible 1 loss non conference champion team there will be arguments if they should go over a 1 loss conference champ. Michigan and Penn State I think now won't have the resume to argue that. A 1 loss Bama would go over a 1 loss non conference champ OSU I think though as long as TX has a good record.

 

[Gator Fever]

With one playoff spot left what would the committee do?

Bama beats an undefeated Georgia for the SEC championship and has Ole Miss, TN and LSU as their other good wins.

Defending champion Georgia loses to Bama in the SEC championship and has Ole Miss, TN and Mizzu as their good wins.

Texas beats an undefeated Oklahoma in a rematch for the Big 12 championship and has Bama, OK State, Kansas State or Kansas as their other good wins.

My thinking is you have to take Bama over Georgia in that situation but the Texas win over Bama on the road should hold enough weight for Texas to go over Bama.

 

[Countygator1]

With one playoff spot left what would the committee do?

Bama beats an undefeated Georgia for the SEC championship and has Ole Miss, TN and LSU as their other good wins.

Defending champion Georgia loses to Bama in the SEC championship and has Ole Miss, TN and Mizzu as their good wins.

Texas beats an undefeated Oklahoma in a rematch for the Big 12 championship and has OK State, Kansas State and Kansas as their other good wins.

My thinking is you have to take Bama over Georgia in that situation but the Texas win over Bama on the road should hold enough weight for Texas to go over Bama.

Bama needs Texas to lose another game. Which they might now that their qb is out. It Texas beats OU in a rematch, then I think both OU and Texas are ahead of a 1 loss bama even if bama is conf champ.

 

[Gator Fever]

Undefeated teams that control their own destiny:

Georgia, FSU, Michigan, OSU, WA

1 loss teams that likely control their own destiny if they win out including their conference championship game:


ACC: Louisville*
Big10: Penn State*
Big12: Texas, OK
PAC12: Oregon
SEC: Mizzu, Bama and Ole Miss*

* Ole Miss can't be involved in a tiebreaker with Bama and make the SEC championship game. If Ole Miss did upset Georgia and Georgia wins the SECCG Ole Miss might could get in at 1 loss with no conference championship.

*Louisville with their bad loss would likely need an undefeated FSU in the ACCCG to have a chance to get in if there are 5 undefeated/1 loss contenders. The committee likes big wins better but that is a really bad loss to have.

* Penn State likely loses out on making the Big10 CG in a 3 way tie so it will be hard for them to get in if that doesn't change.

There is going to be some arguments at the end if that last spot comes down to a 1 loss ACC champion and if any of these 4 teams end up with 1 loss and no conference championship:

WA only loses in the PAC12 CG in a rematch to Oregon especially if Oregon wins that conference at 1 loss.
Ohio State only loses to an undefeated Michigan.
Georgia only loses to a 1 loss Bama in the SECCG.
Ole Miss wins out with GA winning the SECCG.

 

[alaskanseminole]

Undefeated teams that control their own destiny:

Georgia, FSU, Michigan, OSU, WA

1 loss teams that likely control their own destiny if they win out including their conference championship game:


ACC: Louisville*
Big10: Penn State*
Big12: Texas, OK
PAC12: Oregon
SEC: Mizzu, Bama and Ole Miss*

* Ole Miss can't be involved in a tiebreaker with Bama and make the SEC championship game. If Ole Miss did upset Georgia and Georgia wins the SECCG Ole Miss might could get in at 1 loss with no conference championship.

*Louisville with their bad loss would likely need an undefeated FSU in the ACCCG to have a chance to get in if there are 5 undefeated/1 loss contenders. The committee likes big wins better but that is a really bad loss to have.

* Penn State likely loses out on making the Big10 CG in a 3 way tie so it will be hard for them to get in if that doesn't change.

There is going to be some arguments at the end if that last spot comes down to a 1 loss ACC champion and if any of these 4 teams end up with 1 loss and no conference championship:

WA only loses in the PAC12 CG in a rematch to Oregon especially if Oregon wins that conference at 1 loss.
Ohio State only loses to an undefeated Michigan.
Georgia only loses to a 1 loss Bama in the SECCG.
Ole Miss wins out with GA winning the SECCG.

So if FSU goes undefeated, does a 1 loss Mich or OSU bump them? If the current undefeated 5 run the table (considering the Mich/OSU), it should be

#1 - UGA
#2 - UM/OSU winner
#3 - FSU
#4 - Wash

 

[Gator Fever]

So is FSU goes undefeated, does a 1 loss Mich or OSU bump them? If the current undefeated 5 run the table (considering the Mich/OSU), it should be

#1 - UGA
#2 - UM/OSU winner
#3 - FSU
#4 - Wash

FSU undefeated wont be passed by any 1 loss team imo. I think the PAC 12 champ would be listed over the ACC champ but the resumes can still change a lot. I also think the winner of TX-OK rematch if they both still only have one loss would be higher in the pecking order if the ACC champ had one loss though LSU beating Bama might change that If its FSU.

 

[Gator Fever]

Undefeated teams that control their own destiny:

Georgia, FSU, Michigan, OSU, WA

1 loss teams that could control their own destiny if they win out including their conference championship game:


ACC: Louisville*
Big10: Penn State*
Big12: Texas
PAC12: Oregon
SEC: Bama and Ole Miss*

* Ole Miss won't make the SECCG but if they did upset Georgia and win out they might could get in at 1 loss with no conference championship if Georgia beats Bama in the SECCG.

*Louisville with their bad loss and ND losing to Clemson this past week I think at this point would be left out if it came down to them against the other 1 loss contenders at the end. I don't think a win now over an undefeated FSU in the ACCCG would be enough to get them a spot if the committee was choosing between them and a 1 loss non-conference champion Ole Miss, OSU, Washington or Michigan.

* Penn State likely loses out on making the Big10 CG in a 3 way tie so it will be tough for them to get in if that doesn't change.

We have to see what the opponents of these teams do but a 1 loss ACC champion (definitely Louisville and probably FSU) I think would be left out to the other 1 loss conference champs and to 1 loss non-conference champs Ole Miss, OSU or Washington and even Michigan at this point. There is going to be some arguments at the end if that last spot comes down to a 1 loss ACC champion and if any of these 4 teams end up with 1 loss and no conference championship.

Craziest scenario for the committee: Undefeated Michigan*, one loss Texas*, one loss Bama*, one loss Georgia, one loss OSU, one loss FSU*, one loss Oregon* or one loss Washington.
*conference champion

The committee will have a really hard time dealing with that scenario since Texas beat Bama on the road. We know Michigan and Bama will be locks and FSU will likely be left out but who will the other 2 be out of Texas, Georgia, OSU and Oregon/Washington, It will be hard to keep TX out with that Bama road win and a 1 loss PAC12 team might have the best overall wins resume. Georgia will be the 1 loss defending champs who only lost in the SECCG.

 

[Countygator1]

So if FSU goes undefeated, does a 1 loss Mich or OSU bump them? If the current undefeated 5 run the table (considering the Mich/OSU), it should be

#1 - UGA
#2 - UM/OSU winner
#3 - FSU
#4 - Wash

FSU definitely makes the playoff if they win out. 1 loss FSU would not make it. Just my opinion.

 

[alaskanseminole]

FSU definitely makes the playoff if they win out. 1 loss FSU would not make it. Just my opinion.

Not as much an opinion as it is fact.

 

[Countygator1]

Not as much an opinion as it is fact.

Well it would depend on a few things. Lots of football left to be played. The Pac 12 has some big games as does the Big 10. The Big 12 needs Texas to win out to land a spot. I could see Georgia losing one of its next 2 games and facing a 1 loss Bama team for a spot.

 

[alaskanseminole]

Well it would depend on a few things. Lots of football left to be played. The Pac 12 has some big games as does the Big 10. The Big 12 needs Texas to win out to land a spot. I could see Georgia losing one of its next 2 games and facing a 1 loss Bama team for a spot.

We could crap the bed against scUM or UF or make it to the ACCCG only to get throttled by Louisville. Or we can finally play to our potential. You just never know from week to week. Louisville beats ND and Pitt beats Louisville. Any given Saturday.

 

[Countygator1]

We could crap the bed against scUM or UF or make it to the ACCCG only to get throttled by Louisville. Or we can finally play to our potential. You just never know from week to week. Louisville beats ND and Pitt beats Louisville. Any given Saturday.

NIL and transfer portal are starting to level the playing field a tiny bit. I suspect if both remain as is that you will see more parity amongst the power 5 teams over the next 2-3 years.

 

[alaskanseminole]

NIL and transfer portal are starting to level the playing field a tiny bit. I suspect if both remain as is that you will see more parity amongst the power 5 teams over the next 2-3 years.

You mean Power 3. Pac-12 is gone next year and the Big 12 won't have a single decent team, so that leaves the SEC, ACC and B1G.

 

[Countygator1]

You mean Power 3. Pac-12 is gone next year and the Big 12 won't have a single decent team, so that leaves the SEC, ACC and B1G.

LOL, yes that's true.

 

[Gator Fever]

Undefeated teams that control their own destiny:

Georgia, FSU, Michigan, OSU, WA

1 loss teams that could possibly control their own destiny if they win out including their conference championship game:


ACC: Louisville*
Big12: Texas
PAC12: Oregon
SEC: Bama

*Louisville with their bad loss and schedule I think at this point would be left out if it came down to them against the other 1 loss contenders at the end. I don't think a win now over an undefeated FSU in the ACCCG would be enough to get them a spot if the committee was choosing between them and a 1 loss non-conference champion OSU, Washington or Michigan.

We have to see what the opponents of these teams do but a 1 loss ACC champion (definitely Louisville and probably FSU) I think would be left out to the other 1 loss conference champs and to 1 loss non-conference champs OSU or Washington and even Michigan at this point. There will be some arguments at the end if that last spot comes down to a 1 loss ACC champion and if any of these 4 teams end up with 1 loss and no conference championship.

Craziest scenario for the committee: Undefeated Michigan*, one loss Texas*, one loss Bama*, one loss Georgia, one loss OSU, one loss FSU*, one loss Oregon* or one loss Washington.
*conference champion

The committee will have a really hard time dealing with that scenario since Texas beat Bama on the road. We know Michigan and Bama will be locks and FSU will likely be left out but who will the other 2 be out of Texas, Georgia, OSU and Oregon/Washington, It will be hard to keep TX out (their schedule took a hit this week though) with that Bama road win and a 1 loss PAC12 team might have the best overall wins resume. Georgia will be the 1 loss defending champs who only lost in the SECCG. Would the committee take Georgia over TX who will have won the Big 12 conference and beat the SEC Champion on the road?

 

[ocalaman]

Michigan''s schedule has been so pathetic that is they lose to Ohio State, they can't get in, right??!!!
The PAC-12 has been very strong this year and I would think their champ will be in IF they only have 1 loss. My guess right now would be: The Ohio State/Michigan winner, the Georgia/Alabama winner, The Oregon/Washington winner (assuming no more than 1 loss) and undefeated FSU.

 

[Gator Fever]

Michigan''s schedule has been so pathetic that is they lose to Ohio State, they can't get in, right??!!!
The PAC-12 has been very strong this year and I would think their champ will be in IF they only have 1 loss. My guess right now would be: The Ohio State/Michigan winner, the Georgia/Alabama winner, The Oregon/Washington winner (assuming no more than 1 loss) and undefeated FSU.

1 loss Michigan would only have some argument against a 1 loss FSU imo. If FSU gets a loss its possible the committee will have to choose out of Georgia (only losing the SECCG) and TX (if they beat OK in the Big12 Championship game).

 

[Gator Fever]

Well this week's games didn't change anything. Also that is crazy talk about a 1 loss OSU, Georgia or Oregon going over an undefeated FSU since Travis is out. The committee would never leave an undefeated power 5 team out of the playoff.

 

[Countygator1]

Noles are still in if they can beat us and the ville. But I think that OSU and Michigan are now locks. Whichever one loses next week will have just 1 loss to a top 5 team. They go to the front of the 1 loss teams. dawgs, washington, fsu, michigan, ohio st, texas, oregon and then bama.

 

[Gator Fever]

Noles are still in if they can beat us and the ville. But I think that OSU and Michigan are now locks. Whichever one loses next week will have just 1 loss to a top 5 team. They go to the front of the 1 loss teams. dawgs, washington, fsu, michigan, ohio st, texas, oregon and then bama.

I think OSU is likely screwed with a loss if FSU was to win out. My guess is it would be Michigan, Bama/ Georgia winner, Oregon/Washington winner and Texas if they win the rematch with OK. I guess if Georgia beats Bama though they might have a big argument of who goes out of TX and OSU.

 

[goldmom]

Question: Georgia seems to be getting up a head of steam as the season heads into the SECCG. But Bama is also improving.
So who y’all got?

 

[Countygator1]

Question: Georgia seems to be getting up a head of steam as the season heads into the SECCG. But Bama is also improving.
So who y’all got?

georgia is better along the lines of scrimmage. Bama a bit of smoking mirrors...vols dominated first half against Bama, Lsu lost their QB and that stalled them,

 

[Gator Fever]

Question: Georgia seems to be getting up a head of steam as the season heads into the SECCG. But Bama is also improving.
So who y’all got?

I probably lean to Georgia winning but if Bama's QB doesn't turn the ball over and uses his legs a lot I think they will have a chance to beat Georgia.

 

[Gator Fever]

Undefeated teams that control their own destiny:

Georgia, Michigan, WA and FSU

1 loss teams that I would think control their own destiny if they win their conference championship game:

PAC12: Oregon
SEC: Bama

* I think a 1 loss Georgia would be the highest in the pecking order of 1 loss non-conference champs for losing in the 13th game and having one more good win than OSU. Though Georgia on paper wouldn't really have a better wins resume than WA if they lose to Oregon.

There is going to be some big arguments if the power 5 conference champions are Michigan, Bama, WA or Oregon, FSU and Texas.

An undefeated FSU wont be left out and how do you leave Texas out when they beat Bama on the road (but Bama will have just beat undefeated Georgia).

If FSU does lose would they consider leaving Texas out to get GA and Bama both in the playoff. I don't think the committee has ever taken a 1 loss non-conference champ over a 1 loss conference champ before though but they never had this situation before. K State losing didn't do TX any favors.

 

[ocalaman]

I don't think FSU gets in, even if undefeated. Could be wrong, but that's what I believe.

 

[DLinOrlando]

The announcers of another game I was watching discussed FSU. They said that this isn't the NFL, the committee will take into account that they are without Travis. They could be overlooked because of that. I think though they could very well lose to Louisville, even though they lost to Kensucky

 

[Gator Fever]

I don't think FSU gets in, even if undefeated. Could be wrong, but that's what I believe.

I don't see that myself. I cant imagine them not taking an undefeated team that just won their power 5 conference championship.

 

[Countygator1]

If Bama beats Georgia (which is unlikely), Texas wins their conference, Washington beats Oregon, Michigan wins, FSU wins...the committee will have their hands full. SEC is down this year, and most people acknowledge that.

 

[TEBOW TIME]

Would CFP lock out SEC if Georgia loses championship game?

Will the SEC get a spot at the table if the Bulldogs don't win on Saturday?

www.yahoo.com

 

[sadgator]

FSU and Georgia are going to play for the national Title…

sadgator told everyone this weeks ago…

And it is going to be like the 9th level of hell for Gator fans…

This is where we’re at…