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Thoughts of the Day: July 7, 2022

Franz Beard

Rowdy Reptile
Gold Member
Dec 3, 2021
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By Franz Beard
A few thoughts to jump start your Thursday morning:
WILL THIS BE A SEPTEMBER TO REMEMBER FOR THE GATORS?

The September schedule is daunting, easily the toughest of any team in the Southeastern Conference, but it’s also one that Billy Napier and the Gators can navigate. Three of the four games are certainly losable. All four are certainly winnable, too.

Winning will depend on Anthony Richardson living up to his enormous potential as an electric dual threat QB, in receivers like Justin Shorter and Trent Whittemore proving the critics wrong by showing they’re quite capable of getting open, and the O-line giving the defense a boost by controlling the line of scrimmage to keep the clock running in Florida’s favor. Give Patrick Toney’s defense a break or two and the Gators might just escape September 3-1 or 4-0.

September 3, Utah:
The heat and humidity will work in the Gators’ favor. Can the Gators stop Utah’s running game (217 yards per game, 37 rushing touchdowns) and exploit a rather pedestrian secondary?

September 10, Kentucky: The Wildcats have beaten the Gators twice in the last four years. The fear factor is no longer there. If the Gators can run it, they can win it.

September 17, South Florida: Dial-a-score.

September 24, at Tennessee:
The Vols are salivating over a chance to beat the Gators (1-16 against UF since 2004) but they always figure a way to lose (remember the Heave to Cleve in 2017?). Yeah, it’s a new year, but it’s still the Vols.

Prediction: I think 3-1 isn’t out of the question particularly since the first three are homers.

The rest of the SEC
Alabama:
The lone SEC game in September is Vanderbilt. As if Nick Saban needed a gift. The entire month of September is a gift, even the second game of the year on the road in Austin against Steve Sarkisian and the Longhorns. Bryce Young may clinch the Heisman before September 30.

Sept. 3 Utah State; Sept. 10 at Texas; Sept. 17 Louisiana-Monroe; Sept. 24 Vanderbilt

Prediction: Are you kidding me? 4-0. What else do you expect?

Arkansas: Here is everything you need to know. KJ Jefferson is back at QB. Four starters return on the O-line and Sam Pittman coaches O-linemen better than anyone in the country. Bumper Pool and his 125 tackles are back at middle linebacker. A 10-win season is entirely possible.

Sept 3. Cincinnati; Sept 10 South Carolina; Sept. 17 Missouri State; Sept. 24 Texas A&M (in Arlington)

Prediction: The Hogs burst Cincinnati’s bubble game one and that gets September off to a rousing start. The month ends on a high note with Jimbo and the Aggies. 4-0.

Auburn: They wanted to fire Bryan Harsin last year when he went 6-7 funny things happened on the way to a pink slip and here we are, it’s 2022 and Harsin’s still the head coach. At least he doesn’t have to yank his hair out because Bo Nix just completed another pass to the other team. Doesn’t matter. Once the Tigers get September out of the way, they’re going to lose a lot of football games.

Sept. 3 Mercer; Sept. 10 San Jose State; Sept. 17 Penn State; Sept. 24 Missouri

Prediction: There is every good chance the Tigers will go 3-1 in September. There is also a very good chance they’ll go 1-7 the rest of the way. 3-1 but buzzards are circling.

Georgia: Do the Bulldogs have a friend in the SEC scheduling office? Oregon, which is wondering which conference it will be playing in after the 2023 season, in game one. Samford and Sons in game two. The Gamecocks in week three and Clark Kent State in week four. Kirby Smart will have a chance to play all of his freshmen in every game in September and still preserve their redshirts.

Sept. 3 Oregon (in Atlanta); Sept. 10 Samford; Sept. 17 at South Carolina; Sept. 24 Kent State

Prediction: Anything less than 4-0 and Bulldog faithful will be holding their chests and telling Elizabeth they’re coming home.

Kentucky: Mark Stoops has the perfect job. He has Kentucky on track to win 7-9 games every year, which excites the faithful to no end since it means a bowl game in Jacksonville is possible. As long as Stoops has the Wildcats doing that well, they’ll never fire him. UK will go 7-5 or 8-4 this season. Etch that in stone.

Sept. 3 Miami (OH); Sept. 10 at FLORIDA; Sept. 17 Youngstown State; Sept. 24 Northern Illinois

Prediction: On a warm summer’s evening on a train bound for nowhere. Oh wait, those are lyrics to “The Gambler” by Kenny Rogers. On the warm summer’s evening of September 10, Kentucky’s perfect September will be spoiled. 3-1.

LSU: Coach O and his Cajun accent have been replaced by Brian Kelly and his fake Southern accent. Try as he may, he still sounds like he’s from New England. Kelly has won big everywhere he’s coached and they’re counting on him bringing home a championship in Baton Rouge. Maybe in the future, but not this year.

Sept. 3 Florida State (in New Orleans); Sept. 10 Southern; Sept. 17 Mississippi State; Sept. 24 New Mexico

Prediction: The only game that should be a real concern is Mississippi State. In Starkville that might be a loss. In BR it might be scary but LSU will win. 4-0.

Mississippi State: The Pirate isn’t going to win the SEC West, but he’s got a team that’s good enough to win 8-9 games. That will get the Bulldogs to a decent second tier bowl game which will thrill the masses and make them think Mike Leach is a genius. Everybody talks about his passing offense and QB Will Rogers, but the Bulldogs return eight starters on defense.

Sept. 3 Memphis; Sept. 10 at Arizona; Sept. 17 at LSU; Sept. 24 Bowling Green

Prediction: All the games are winnable in September but the Bulldogs will probably find a way to bite the bullet in Baton Rouge. 3-1.

Missouri: The Tigers went bowling last year with a 6-6 regular season. That’s do-able this year, too, although it will depend on Eli Drinkwitz finding a decent QB and someone to replace Tyler Badie’s running. Seven starters return on defense and there are three former starters who transferred in including LB Ty’ron Hopper (Florida) and S Joseph Charleston (Clemson).

Sept. 1 Louisiana Tech; Sept. 10 at Kansas State; Sept. 17 Abilene Christian; Sept. 24 at Auburn

Prediction: The Tigers will win the two home games but they’ll have all sorts of problems when they hit the road. 2-2.

Ole Miss: Maybe no one in the country used the transfer portal more effectively than Lane Kiffin. Kiffin plugged all the holes and even upgraded, especially on defense. Jaxson Dart to Jonathan Mingo might prove to be the nation’s best pass-catch combo. The Rebels are going to score lots and lots of points.

Sept. 3 Troy; Sept. 10 Central Arkansas; Sept. 17 at Georgia Tech; Sept. 24 Tulsa

Prediction: Only four home games could have made for a more perfect September for Lane Kiffin. The lone roadie as a week three trip to Georgia Tech, which will be a dial-a-score game for the Rebels who have a 9-10 win schedule on their hands. 4-0.

South Carolina: The Gamecock faithful believe Spencer Rattler will lead them to the promised land. He’s certainly an upgrade over the three QBs who started a game last year when South Carolina shocked the SEC by going 7-6. Rattler will ensure there are more points on the scoreboard but who’s going to stop the run?

Sept. 3 Georgia State; Sept. 10 at Arkansas; Sept. 17 Georgia; Sept. 24 Charlotte

Prediction: Whoever made the schedule out for South Carolina has a cruel streak. Arkansas on the road in week two followed by Georgia? Not good. Not good at all. 2-2.



Tennessee:
If you look at Josh Heupel’s record at UCF, the Knights got worst every season (12-1 to 10-3 to 6-4). If Heupel is so brilliant then why did it take him until game three to start Hendon Hooker at QB? Joe Milton was a disaster. Hooker will put up Star Wars numbers this year, but the Vols aren’t going to stop many people.

Sept. 1 Ball State; Sept. 10 at Pittsburgh; Sept. 17 Akron; Sept. 24 FLORIDA

Prediction:
The Vols always think they’re going to beat the Gators, but they’ve only done it once in the last 17 years. Make it once in the last 18. 3-1.

Texas A&M: Because Jimbo Fisher became the first former Nick Saban assistant to beat the boss last year, everyone in Aggie-land seems to think this will be the breakthrough year when that multi-gazillion dollar contract finally pays off. Anything less than an SEC West title is going to seem like a disappointment. Better ask the doc to prescribe some anti-anxiety meds.

Sept. 3 Sam Houston State; Sept. 10 Appalachian State; Sept. 17 Miami; Sept. 24 Arkansas (in Arlington)

Prediction: The first three weeks will be a breeze. Then comes Sam Pittman and Arkansas, which did a tapdance on the Aggies last year. They’ll do it again. 3-1.



Vanderbilt:
The Commodores get a jump on the rest of the SEC by playing at Hawaii on August 27. They should enjoy the time in Honolulu because this is going to be a VERY long season. Take a look at that schedule. Why would any SEC team play a MAC team on the road in a 24,000-seat stadium? Vandy will bring up the rear of the SEC once again starting in September.

August 27: at Hawaii; Sept. 3 Elon; Sept. 10 Wake Forest; Sept. 17 at Northern Illinois; Sept. 24 at Alabama

Prediction: A win over Elon will prevent a reverse run of the table. 1-4.

Auxiliary members
Oklahoma:
Lincoln Riley is gone and so are quarterbacks Caleb Williams (with Riley to Southern Cal) and Spencer Rattler (to South Carolina). The new head coach (Brent Venables) actually knows how to put a good defensive team on the field and replacement gunslinger – UCF transfer Dillon Gabriel (70 TDPs, 14 picks in his career) – is probably better than either Williams or Rattler. The September schedule doesn’t have a single hiccup on it.

Sept. 3 UTEP; Sept. 10 Kent State; Sept. 17 at Nebraska; Sept. 24 Kansas State

Prediction: What the Sooners are going to do to everyone in the Big 12 except Baylor this year could be filed under pillage and plunder. 4-0.

Texas: The Blondie Era (Quinn Ewers and his bleach blonde mullet) begins with plenty of questions. Is he the second coming or was his inability to crack even the top four in the QB rotation last year at Ohio State a sign of things to come? By game two, the Longhorn faithful might be praying for 2023 and Arch Manning to arrive in a hurry.

Sept. 3 Louisiana-Monroe; Sept. 10 Alabama; Sept. 17 Texas-San Antonio; Sept. 24 at Texas Tech

Prediction: The last year in the Big 12 should produce plenty of points and eight or nine wins unless high anxiety sends the season south after Nick Saban comes a-ridin’ into town a-whompin’ and a-whumpin’ every livin’ thing that moves within an inch of its life on September 10. A shaky 3-1.

ONE FINAL PITHY THOUGHT: I am reminded of the knife fight in the movie “Butch Cassidy and the Sundance Kid” where Harvey Logan yells out to Butch Cassidy, “Rules! In a knife fight? No rules!” That’s what we have right now in Division I college football. We have a knife fight about to begin and there are no rules.

If the experts are correct, within a very short period of time we’ll be down to a pair of mega conferences of 20-24 teams each and many of the other 80-90 Division I teams will be facing extinction or scaled back programs. Yeah, I hear the arguments that the big conferences and power programs aren’t their little brothers’ keepers, but when I see expansion out of control I see the potential for fewer scholarships and fewer opportunities at the lower levels.

Maybe that doesn’t bother you. It bothers me. Enormously. I’m also bothered that traditions and rivalries will be eliminated all in the name of progress.

What bothers me most is the lack of leadership at a time when leadership is a necessity. What I would like to see is before all the conferences are cannibalized for the conference commissioners and Notre Dame to at least slow down expansion long enough to come up with a plan to elect a leader capable of guiding college sports through this mess. It would have to be someone who has absolute authority to set the rules and dole out harsh punishment to rules breakers.

I realize this is wishful thinking on my part, but I fear that if a leader doesn’t emerge soon the ensuing knife fight will be bloody and the casualties will be kids who actually use that football scholarship to get an education and better their lives and the lives of their families.
 
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