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So's your wife, but that doesn't stop her from being fun.Polls are corrupt!
Lean Democrat
If true, would hurt Trumps chances. He has to pick off one of Pa, Mi, or Wi for sure.
Oh I know, I just love the discussion and I love it when you guys post the other pollsYou need to stop RCP because they have some many #Fakepolls
other than Fox News last 3 polls have Trump winning along John James.
I think I started following it during the Obama years but I completely agree with you. Another thing I find interesting is that they include Paul sometimes from several months ago in addition to the new ones and I find that problematic to. In the end I’m really not a real clear politics fan, I’d like to post these things as devils advocate in here because clearly we have some knowledgeable people and I like to see the responses and the other sources they post.So in 2016, I started paying attention to the polls. As part of my research (I've already lost the dems, but that's ok), I quickly discovered RCP. It sounded perfect, a site that aggregates the polls and gives you the points for each candidate, plus you could see how the polls trended. Perfect!
But then as I began to pay more attention to the polls, I began to notice that the polls that had Trump doing better than Hillary, were frequently left out of the RCP average of polls. And often the polls that had questionable methodology were included, no questions asked.
So if you include all the questionable polls and omit most of the ones that had Trump doing better, you could easily provide a narrative that Hillary is fine. That';s what the RCP average of poll did.
And that's why they got it wrong. Haven't even looked at them this cycle.
Yes but mostly because that’s what the media users including Fox News. I think somebody on Fox News said the other day that if all the polls are wrong again this time and posters need to find a new job. I think Polls have become useless now that they’re all political.People still pay attention to RCP?
I study all polling data. A lot of it way over weighs toward Democrats. Some of it is an insult to us who study sample data. Naturally Biden leads. Notice RCP doesn't factor in Zogby? Let me guess why.So in 2016, I started paying attention to the polls. As part of my research (I've already lost the dems, but that's ok), I quickly discovered RCP. It sounded perfect, a site that aggregates the polls and gives you the points for each candidate, plus you could see how the polls trended. Perfect!
But then as I began to pay more attention to the polls, I began to notice that the polls that had Trump doing better than Hillary, were frequently left out of the RCP average of polls. And often the polls that had questionable methodology were included, no questions asked.
So if you include all the questionable polls and omit most of the ones that had Trump doing better, you could easily provide a narrative that Hillary is fine. That';s what the RCP average of poll did.
And that's why they got it wrong. Haven't even looked at them this cycle.
I think I started following it during the Obama years but I completely agree with you. Another thing I find interesting is that they include Paul sometimes from several months ago in addition to the new ones and I find that problematic to. In the end I’m really not a real clear politics fan, I’d like to post these things as devils advocate in here because clearly we have some knowledgeable people and I like to see the responses and the other sources they post.
Again, I could just be looking at the world through rose colored glasses but I honestly see Trump winning Michigan and Wisconsin but I’m not sure about Pennsylvania.
And what the hell happened to Fox News. Their polls seem to be as biased as the rest of them now.I study all polling data. A lot of it way over weighs toward Democrats. Some of it is an insult to us who study sample data. Naturally Biden leads. Notice RCP doesn't factor in Zogby? Let me guess why.
Man if that’s true it’s Trump in a landslideI don't think those are tossup states, I think Trump wins all three. I think Minnesota, New Mexico and NV will be the tossup states.
The old man retired and turned Fox News over to 2 liberal sons. I can't remember the Fox News manager who died. He made Fox News ratings higher than all other cable news networks combined. Donna Brazille would never work at Fox News if the manager and old man were still running the show. Donna slipped debate questions to Hillary.And what the hell happened to Fox News. Their polls seem to be as biased as the rest of them now.
People still pay attention to RCP?
I do multiple times a week. Stories are always even handed; equal left and right
them turning Michigan Light Blue is only in response to the average of the polling data which was skewed by Fox’s Biden +12 lead.
the question is how the phuck Fox could go so wrong on polling this year - they’ve been one of the worse. It’s like they went cheap are just averaging the NYT/Siena and Quinnipiac polls
Man if that’s true it’s Trump in a landslide
My wife is fairly politically agnostic but HATES Trump. Like truly doesn't trust him to not completely eff up the country hates him. She wrote in Ben Carson in 2016.I will go with what Sunburnt is saying. There is so much more outweighing with Democrat sampling than people realize. I do think there are more moderate Dems this time around voting for Trump than they are anticipating. My wife is a Democrat and she voted straight Republican this time. She has never done that but is upset with the unrest and direction of the Party. I don’t think this is uncommon.
I'm not sure what to think of the Dems strategy. They either 1) Don't have one and the mob is in charge, 2) Aren't running to win because they don't think they can - this cycle has been about making the insane seem normal for future elections, or 3) Still have no clue why people are motivated by a candidate like Trump.The RNC and Trump Campaign is really good about sharing data from their rallies. They consistently get 20-30% democrats at their rallies and 15-25% who didn't vote in 2016. Numbers suggest they are flipping dems and converting undecideds at the same time.
People have bought into Trump's message of saving America. Thankfully, dems decided 2020 was the year they wanted to embrace rioting and death, so that made it a much easier sell.
Your wife clearly has poor judgement, look who she married.My wife is fairly politically agnostic but HATES Trump. Like truly doesn't trust him to not completely eff up the country hates him. She wrote in Ben Carson in 2016.
After the last debate she sheepishly told me she was voting for Trump.
You combine stories like that with the fact that many Trump voters wouldn't dare tell a stranger they'd vote for him...plus the sampling issues mentioned above, they're setting up to be as wrong as they were in 2016 (maybe even worse).
Solid point.Your wife clearly has poor judgement, look who she married.
I'm not sure what to think of the Dems strategy. They either 1) Don't have one and the mob is in charge, 2) Aren't running to win because they don't think they can - this cycle has been about making the insane seem normal for future elections, or 3) Still have no clue why people are motivated by a candidate like Trump.
But when you see the enthusiasm gap...it's incredible. And I don't think it's all Covid, if people were rabid about their support for Biden there'd be crowds and excitement for his events. I guarantee you if Obama was running you'd have more than 10 people at campaign stops.