Real Clear Politics Turns Michigan Light Blue

gator1776

Bull Gator
Gold Member
Jan 19, 2011
32,994
50,037
113
Lean Democrat

If true, would hurt Trumps chances. He has to pick off one of Pa, Mi, or Wi for sure.
 

Sunburnt Indian

Gator Great
Nov 7, 2001
3,222
6,247
113
Trafalgar sees MI for Trump and a Senate flip to R. Auto jobs have come back to Michigan under Trump and Wayne County blacks are turning to Trump. Michigan governor and lockdown are good for Trump. Joe's admission of evil Big Oil phase out is good for Trump in Pennsylvania and Ohio except for those with BSC/AOC IQs.

Trafalgar nailed 2018 Florida and 2016 presidential elections. Trafalgar was the only poll to pick Trump to win Michigan.
 
Oct 1, 2012
15,423
16,339
113
So in 2016, I started paying attention to the polls. As part of my research (I've already lost the dems, but that's ok), I quickly discovered RCP. It sounded perfect, a site that aggregates the polls and gives you the points for each candidate, plus you could see how the polls trended. Perfect!

But then as I began to pay more attention to the polls, I began to notice that the polls that had Trump doing better than Hillary, were frequently left out of the RCP average of polls. And often the polls that had questionable methodology were included, no questions asked.

So if you include all the questionable polls and omit most of the ones that had Trump doing better, you could easily provide a narrative that Hillary is fine. That';s what the RCP average of poll did.

And that's why they got it wrong. Haven't even looked at them this cycle.
 
  • Like
Reactions: BlueEyedGator17

gator1776

Bull Gator
Gold Member
Jan 19, 2011
32,994
50,037
113
So in 2016, I started paying attention to the polls. As part of my research (I've already lost the dems, but that's ok), I quickly discovered RCP. It sounded perfect, a site that aggregates the polls and gives you the points for each candidate, plus you could see how the polls trended. Perfect!

But then as I began to pay more attention to the polls, I began to notice that the polls that had Trump doing better than Hillary, were frequently left out of the RCP average of polls. And often the polls that had questionable methodology were included, no questions asked.

So if you include all the questionable polls and omit most of the ones that had Trump doing better, you could easily provide a narrative that Hillary is fine. That';s what the RCP average of poll did.

And that's why they got it wrong. Haven't even looked at them this cycle.
I think I started following it during the Obama years but I completely agree with you. Another thing I find interesting is that they include Paul sometimes from several months ago in addition to the new ones and I find that problematic to. In the end I’m really not a real clear politics fan, I’d like to post these things as devils advocate in here because clearly we have some knowledgeable people and I like to see the responses and the other sources they post.

Again, I could just be looking at the world through rose colored glasses but I honestly see Trump winning Michigan and Wisconsin but I’m not sure about Pennsylvania.
 
  • Like
Reactions: BlueEyedGator17

gator1776

Bull Gator
Gold Member
Jan 19, 2011
32,994
50,037
113
People still pay attention to RCP?
Yes but mostly because that’s what the media users including Fox News. I think somebody on Fox News said the other day that if all the polls are wrong again this time and posters need to find a new job. I think Polls have become useless now that they’re all political.
 

Sunburnt Indian

Gator Great
Nov 7, 2001
3,222
6,247
113
So in 2016, I started paying attention to the polls. As part of my research (I've already lost the dems, but that's ok), I quickly discovered RCP. It sounded perfect, a site that aggregates the polls and gives you the points for each candidate, plus you could see how the polls trended. Perfect!

But then as I began to pay more attention to the polls, I began to notice that the polls that had Trump doing better than Hillary, were frequently left out of the RCP average of polls. And often the polls that had questionable methodology were included, no questions asked.

So if you include all the questionable polls and omit most of the ones that had Trump doing better, you could easily provide a narrative that Hillary is fine. That';s what the RCP average of poll did.

And that's why they got it wrong. Haven't even looked at them this cycle.
I study all polling data. A lot of it way over weighs toward Democrats. Some of it is an insult to us who study sample data. Naturally Biden leads. Notice RCP doesn't factor in Zogby? Let me guess why.
 
Oct 1, 2012
15,423
16,339
113
I think I started following it during the Obama years but I completely agree with you. Another thing I find interesting is that they include Paul sometimes from several months ago in addition to the new ones and I find that problematic to. In the end I’m really not a real clear politics fan, I’d like to post these things as devils advocate in here because clearly we have some knowledgeable people and I like to see the responses and the other sources they post.

Again, I could just be looking at the world through rose colored glasses but I honestly see Trump winning Michigan and Wisconsin but I’m not sure about Pennsylvania.
I don't think those are tossup states, I think Trump wins all three. I think Minnesota, New Mexico and NV will be the tossup states.
 
  • Like
Reactions: Sunburnt Indian

martycat1

Rowdy Reptile
Feb 3, 2010
1,057
513
113
57
IMO, People will and have come out of the woodwork to vote. People that have not voted in years. I would hate to be a pollster. If you put a gun to my head, I say Trump landside. But I live in a R-state.
 

Ncgatr1

Swamp Thing
Gold Member
Jun 18, 2012
934
1,681
93
I will go with what Sunburnt is saying. There is so much more outweighing with Democrat sampling than people realize. I do think there are more moderate Dems this time around voting for Trump than they are anticipating. My wife is a Democrat and she voted straight Republican this time. She has never done that but is upset with the unrest and direction of the Party. I don’t think this is uncommon.
 

Sunburnt Indian

Gator Great
Nov 7, 2001
3,222
6,247
113
And what the hell happened to Fox News. Their polls seem to be as biased as the rest of them now.
The old man retired and turned Fox News over to 2 liberal sons. I can't remember the Fox News manager who died. He made Fox News ratings higher than all other cable news networks combined. Donna Brazille would never work at Fox News if the manager and old man were still running the show. Donna slipped debate questions to Hillary.
 
  • Like
Reactions: Ncgatr1

IrishPokerDog

Bull Gator
Apr 7, 2007
11,973
2,933
113
People still pay attention to RCP?
I do multiple times a week. Stories are always even handed; equal left and right

them turning Michigan Light Blue is only in response to the average of the polling data which was skewed by Fox’s Biden +12 lead.

the question is how the phuck Fox could go so wrong on polling this year - they’ve been one of the worse. It’s like they went cheap are just averaging the NYT/Siena and Quinnipiac polls
 
  • Like
Reactions: Sunburnt Indian
Oct 1, 2012
15,423
16,339
113
I do multiple times a week. Stories are always even handed; equal left and right

them turning Michigan Light Blue is only in response to the average of the polling data which was skewed by Fox’s Biden +12 lead.

the question is how the phuck Fox could go so wrong on polling this year - they’ve been one of the worse. It’s like they went cheap are just averaging the NYT/Siena and Quinnipiac polls
Their stories are decent, Paul Sperry does some good investigative reporting, but even some of his stuff is off. But the polls are meaningless to me.
 
  • Like
Reactions: Sunburnt Indian
Oct 1, 2012
15,423
16,339
113
Man if that’s true it’s Trump in a landslide
The RNC and Trump Campaign is really good about sharing data from their rallies. They consistently get 20-30% democrats at their rallies and 15-25% who didn't vote in 2016. Numbers suggest they are flipping dems and converting undecideds at the same time.

People have bought into Trump's message of saving America. Thankfully, dems decided 2020 was the year they wanted to embrace rioting and death, so that made it a much easier sell.
 
  • Like
Reactions: gator1776

fatman76

Chomp Artist
Jun 15, 2007
511
914
93
I will go with what Sunburnt is saying. There is so much more outweighing with Democrat sampling than people realize. I do think there are more moderate Dems this time around voting for Trump than they are anticipating. My wife is a Democrat and she voted straight Republican this time. She has never done that but is upset with the unrest and direction of the Party. I don’t think this is uncommon.
My wife is fairly politically agnostic but HATES Trump. Like truly doesn't trust him to not completely eff up the country hates him. She wrote in Ben Carson in 2016.

After the last debate she sheepishly told me she was voting for Trump.

You combine stories like that with the fact that many Trump voters wouldn't dare tell a stranger they'd vote for him...plus the sampling issues mentioned above, they're setting up to be as wrong as they were in 2016 (maybe even worse).
 

fatman76

Chomp Artist
Jun 15, 2007
511
914
93
The RNC and Trump Campaign is really good about sharing data from their rallies. They consistently get 20-30% democrats at their rallies and 15-25% who didn't vote in 2016. Numbers suggest they are flipping dems and converting undecideds at the same time.

People have bought into Trump's message of saving America. Thankfully, dems decided 2020 was the year they wanted to embrace rioting and death, so that made it a much easier sell.
I'm not sure what to think of the Dems strategy. They either 1) Don't have one and the mob is in charge, 2) Aren't running to win because they don't think they can - this cycle has been about making the insane seem normal for future elections, or 3) Still have no clue why people are motivated by a candidate like Trump.

But when you see the enthusiasm gap...it's incredible. And I don't think it's all Covid, if people were rabid about their support for Biden there'd be crowds and excitement for his events. I guarantee you if Obama was running you'd have more than 10 people at campaign stops.
 

gator1776

Bull Gator
Gold Member
Jan 19, 2011
32,994
50,037
113
My wife is fairly politically agnostic but HATES Trump. Like truly doesn't trust him to not completely eff up the country hates him. She wrote in Ben Carson in 2016.

After the last debate she sheepishly told me she was voting for Trump.

You combine stories like that with the fact that many Trump voters wouldn't dare tell a stranger they'd vote for him...plus the sampling issues mentioned above, they're setting up to be as wrong as they were in 2016 (maybe even worse).
Your wife clearly has poor judgement, look who she married.
 
Oct 1, 2012
15,423
16,339
113
I'm not sure what to think of the Dems strategy. They either 1) Don't have one and the mob is in charge, 2) Aren't running to win because they don't think they can - this cycle has been about making the insane seem normal for future elections, or 3) Still have no clue why people are motivated by a candidate like Trump.

But when you see the enthusiasm gap...it's incredible. And I don't think it's all Covid, if people were rabid about their support for Biden there'd be crowds and excitement for his events. I guarantee you if Obama was running you'd have more than 10 people at campaign stops.
Their donors run the party.