Hi here are my thoughts a 2nd time on the game as a Michigan fan. With so many UF players out for this game I would be disappointed if UM did not win. It is not a disaster because variance in college football is so great. I will first say how UF can still win the game and then why I think UM will.
If you have a great defense you are in every game. UF has this. Even if the offense is a complete cluster, some big plays on defense, turn overs, special teams, or just general chaos can swing the momentum. Perhaps the UM secondary makes some big mistake for 6. If Franks is the starter, he just has to not make mistakes and let momentum do its job. The problems bring UF together and UM comes out a little flat.
Now this is how UM wins. I said earlier I thought it was a wash with Callaway playing. Since then the #1 receiver, #1 RB, and #1 tackler from last year plus 8 other less significant players are lost. This is 15% of the scholarship depth of the team. WR, RB, and secondary were in my opinion UF's biggest advantages going into this game and they all took a hit. I now give UM the advantage at WR because of so many returning TE's, Hbacks, and FB's who can manufacture a passing game. UM now has more returning RB yardage verse UF. So I give UM the edge because last years 2nd, 3rd, 4th RB's got 1400 yards on an extra 1 ypc, verses 700 for UF. I still give UF the advantage in the secondary. They have returning starters where UM does not. UF does have a true freshmen and secondary is often as strong as the weakest link. But UF's more experienced safties mean less odds of a big mistake.
Without any proven play makers I think it is too hard for a redshirt freshmen to come in and do anything of significance. I'm not concerned about Malik Zaire because Don Brown's specialty is stopping spread & shred. The mgoblog pundits are higher on Speight then I am but he is experienced. He has done it before where Franks has not. Regardless of what people say about off season improvements a team that was practically last in every offensive category last year, with a new QB, missing the best RB, and best receiver is not going to improve much over last year. I think it is reasonable especially in the 1st game of the year that a lot of UM's new starters will not be near what they could be later. But it gets a lot easier when the offense you are up against is so inexperienced and last in explosive plays. Yes, a new face has the potential to make a play. But so could a new face at UM.
I still see a close scoring game because both teams project to have good defenses. But I see UM having more returning skill players who will make some plays. Harbaugh is usually good for a couple RPS plays. Plus a young Franks may make some mistakes. UF's Dline is good and probably has more depth. But no one on UF grades out better than Hurst and Gary. I think some things could change if the starting 1tech Mone gets hurt. He has been hurt the last two years. So hard to project big things other than getting hurt again. And lastly UM"s ace in the hole plays for UF. I was not pleased with Nussmeier when at UM. He seems to be like Al Borges in that his success was due to others and not sustainable. I was so angry at his inexplicable play calling. And I guarantee you he does not know what to do with spread & shred QB's. I have full faith that Nussmeier will boff a couple drives.