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Discussion in 'The Gator Blue Board' started by Gator Fever, Aug 9, 2017.
My reading's fine, go through the thread. Every new starter is phoenomenal. It's amazing
Damn, he has a lot of potential, but he had 1 sack last year, lets not act like he's Reggie White
Reggie White is the closest physical comparison I can think of to him. His combine numbers as a HS junior were above average for NFL combine DL. He's insane. He only got 1 sack last season because he had to back up a 1st round pick and a 3rd round pick. He was dominant when on the field. He may have only gotten 1 sack, but PFF ranked him quite highly in terms of productivity of his pass rush opportunities.
Let me summarize it for you. All the players Michigan lost really weren't that good and their backups were better. Hence the reason why Michigan will be dominant this year because replacing all those starters isn't really that big of deal.
Did I get that right?
No, most Michigan fans expect them to slightly decline from last season when they were thisclose to going undefeated. Our record may end up similar or even better with a slightly worse overall team, however, with some better luck. Last season was horribly unlucky.
Michigan has questions on the OL and at CB this season. While they are being manned by previously highly talented recruits, they haven't had the extensive PT that would give you the warm fuzzies in fall camp. Stranger things have happened, though, than some of those former elite recruits actually panning out sooner rather than later.
I like his potential, but damn, pump the brakes, a bit. I wouldn't even hype Ed Oliver this much, you know the best Fr DL last year
Of course you do, who wouldnt expect a guy with very limited experience to be better than a guy with over 100 tackles and 15.5 tfl.
Who wouldnt expect two young safeties to come right in and play better than productive veterans
Who wouldnt think it's going to be easy to replace over 70tfl?
And replacing 3 veteran All Big 10 OL? Easy. Top 3 pass catchers? No problem.
All their backups are much better.
Gators should focus on Northern Colorado, no chance against this juggernaut
Physically it isn't hype. His measurements this offseason were stunning. His size, strength, speed, and agility are unreal. Nearly 300 lb men aren't supposed to run the 40 in under 4.6 seconds. Ed Oliver getting 5 sacks in the AAC or whatever it is called is nice and what not and he's a hell of a prospect. But Gary was the first prospect to ever be named #1 overall by all 4 recruiting services and he has done nothing to slow down the hype train since he arrived in Ann Arbor. He was outstanding in his limited opportunities last season and has been outstanding this spring and fall.
in 5 days we can all watch what he does without a senior 1st round pick ahead of him
if your opinion is based on reading stat sheets, then that's your opinion. You are entitled to it. You are free to be surprised. I'm simply trying to give you a more realistic scouting report on what to expect and since my expectation for game outcome is in line with the Vegas spread I think it's hard to imply I'm some sort of crazy homer.
I think Gary will be good but you may be getting just a little too caught up in the drama. I think he may cause us some issues but I think Ivey is more than able to hold his own against Gary. Not really sure about Taylor until we see it on the field.
Really, no, it's not. Not in the first game, not a guy with little starting experience over a guy with years of experience. By the end of the year? Sure, happens all the time. In game 1? Not so much.
If experience didn't matter. a slightly taller and faster freshman would always beat out a junior or senior, wouldn't they?
When the crazy homers are driving the betting line, well...
I keep seeing this thinking, and really, I don't care if Michigan is going to be really good and end up with a similar record to last year.
I will say it again: The 1992 gators replaced a ton of starters from an SEC title team and went 9-3. BUT THEY STARTED 1-2. Oh, and the 1992 team went on to win the SEC on 93 94 95 and 96, finishing #2 overall in 95 and winning the NC in 96. So that team that started 1-2 in 1992 evidently had a TON of talent, but still, started 1-2. So I don't care how good you will be in game 12, ONLY IN GAME 1.
so in your opinion a 1st year starter is incapable of replacing a 1st year starter? Got it. Makes a lot of sense. Especially when the new guy is a lot more talented.
I cordially accept your caution. All I can say is people that have been coaching for decades and are not prone to hyperbole say he is the best they have ever seen or coached. The kid is a beast.
I'm fairly certain that nobody in this thread is caring about anything other than Game 1. Fortunately for Michigan, they don't have to be world beaters on Saturday, they only have to beat Florida.
well the line was set to open with Michigan as the favorite with no betting action. The sharps have since moved it a bit with the Gator suspensions.
Well I guess you mostly think we will be about like last year on offense with that comment.
Nope. I expect Florida to make massive improvements on offense and be merely average this season. But that includes guys like Callaway and Scarlett playing. Without them???? Yikes.
I think its not much of a dropoff to Perine who can actually block a little unlike Scarlett. Its not good having all this stuff coming down right before the game however.
Obviously not having Callaway and Scarlett hurt, but im not too worried about it.. If all these players were on D then id say we are screwed because of lack of experience.. but Mac has recruited so well on O that with Perine and Thompson, Cleveland and Massey and Powell and Toney, those guys can easily make up for not having Callaway and Scarlett. This game still comes down to our QB play. If Zaire or Franks play mistake free and play up to their potential then we win by 15/20
Why don't you guys start a thread to see how much you'll beat us by .
Like you do every time we meet. Those are fun.
Just one additional thought on Michigan's team transition from last year to this year, they may have had three conference recognized OL, one of whom returns as a starter, but they did not have high quality production from the OL in their toughest games. The 4th quarters of close losses at Iowa and OSU where flatliners for their OL getting it done, especially on the ground, and FSU around UM's line for the majority of the Orange Bowl game.
UM fans are optimistic not about the experience of UM's OL, but the toughness we're hearing about the replacement that are direct recruits of a high quality coach like Tim Drevno. Right now three of the five projected starters are players he brought in (second and third year players), a fourth is a four year, high production starter, the fifth a leftover from the old regime, a fifth year player. They have a second year, high quality starting guard returning and lost three players that got conference recognition, but did not get drafted by the NFL (in a year when the NFL was eating up UM players).
That is the matchup I am really wondering what will happen. The Michigan run game v the Florida defense. I think we will hold up decent there but you never know I guess. I am real confident the defense will be applying good pressure on passing situations.
From a UM fan's perspective, UM's OL is far from a finished, known product. FSU ate our lunch on pass rushes and we have a mostly new group of talented, but very green WRs. Florida's DL play versus our OL is definitely something to watch with care.
My biggest worry with Michigan's OL isn't the run game, it's the RT holding up to a good pass rusher. The run game will likely be at least OK. Michigan's left side of the line is good and there are plenty of very good running backs to rotate through. But it's conceivable the RT gets wrecked in pass blocking forcing Michigan to leave a TE or back in to help.
I know Harbaugh's teams usually have a good playaction game because of how he sets up the run but I'm hoping we sell out against the run on early downs. If we can get them in 2nd and 3rd and long situations I like our pass rush. Otherwise we might be in trouble because our starting dline is really light and with how Harbaugh likes to use TE's they might run on us till the defense caves.
Yep we can't let them start rolling there or it will be a long game.
If they run effectively it will be a long day for us
Its very similar to playing Saban. Spread it out on offense and force their offense to pass the ball downfield. Recipe for beating them is much the same.
We will crush you. Nothing personal.
If you don't, I expect you here to eat your crow when the clock hits 0:00.
Point of Order:
The Mich DL is so overwhelming that the Gator OL is doomed,,, some claim.
Facts of the Matter:
The left side of the Gator's OL is a 5 Star LT that started as a tFr at LG and played LG again as a Soph. He is now at his natural LT position because the 2016 LT was an early departure Jr NFL draft pick.
The new LG is a rsFr 6-3 330 LB 4 star UA-AA and top OC, now playing LG.
The center is a cannon ball with attitude, 6-1 314 rsSo that's on the Remington Trophy Watch list.
The right side of the Gator OL is a Soph 6-5 334 RT that was a Fr All SEC, & Fr AA, and a RG that was the starting RT as a tFr, but is now a 6-6 330 Jr RG.
All but the UA-AA rsFr LG have already been starters for the Gators.
Sorry, but as good as the Mich DL might be, I'm having trouble being over whelmed by them.
Now, on the other hand, how is the Mich OL going to hold up vs the Gator's DL and LB'ers?
Hi here are my thoughts a 2nd time on the game as a Michigan fan. With so many UF players out for this game I would be disappointed if UM did not win. It is not a disaster because variance in college football is so great. I will first say how UF can still win the game and then why I think UM will.
If you have a great defense you are in every game. UF has this. Even if the offense is a complete cluster, some big plays on defense, turn overs, special teams, or just general chaos can swing the momentum. Perhaps the UM secondary makes some big mistake for 6. If Franks is the starter, he just has to not make mistakes and let momentum do its job. The problems bring UF together and UM comes out a little flat.
Now this is how UM wins. I said earlier I thought it was a wash with Callaway playing. Since then the #1 receiver, #1 RB, and #1 tackler from last year plus 8 other less significant players are lost. This is 15% of the scholarship depth of the team. WR, RB, and secondary were in my opinion UF's biggest advantages going into this game and they all took a hit. I now give UM the advantage at WR because of so many returning TE's, Hbacks, and FB's who can manufacture a passing game. UM now has more returning RB yardage verse UF. So I give UM the edge because last years 2nd, 3rd, 4th RB's got 1400 yards on an extra 1 ypc, verses 700 for UF. I still give UF the advantage in the secondary. They have returning starters where UM does not. UF does have a true freshmen and secondary is often as strong as the weakest link. But UF's more experienced safties mean less odds of a big mistake.
Without any proven play makers I think it is too hard for a redshirt freshmen to come in and do anything of significance. I'm not concerned about Malik Zaire because Don Brown's specialty is stopping spread & shred. The mgoblog pundits are higher on Speight then I am but he is experienced. He has done it before where Franks has not. Regardless of what people say about off season improvements a team that was practically last in every offensive category last year, with a new QB, missing the best RB, and best receiver is not going to improve much over last year. I think it is reasonable especially in the 1st game of the year that a lot of UM's new starters will not be near what they could be later. But it gets a lot easier when the offense you are up against is so inexperienced and last in explosive plays. Yes, a new face has the potential to make a play. But so could a new face at UM.
I still see a close scoring game because both teams project to have good defenses. But I see UM having more returning skill players who will make some plays. Harbaugh is usually good for a couple RPS plays. Plus a young Franks may make some mistakes. UF's Dline is good and probably has more depth. But no one on UF grades out better than Hurst and Gary. I think some things could change if the starting 1tech Mone gets hurt. He has been hurt the last two years. So hard to project big things other than getting hurt again. And lastly UM"s ace in the hole plays for UF. I was not pleased with Nussmeier when at UM. He seems to be like Al Borges in that his success was due to others and not sustainable. I was so angry at his inexplicable play calling. And I guarantee you he does not know what to do with spread & shred QB's. I have full faith that Nussmeier will boff a couple drives.
Not too bad of an analysis. Turnovers could be huge in this game. I stil keep thinking it comes down to whether we can slow your running game down some. If we do that I think we can still pull out a close win. I do think we may struggle to run the ball against your defense.
MJ, wanna jump in here and defend Nuss?
He mismanaged and essentially destroyed a QB that had, the year before, monster games against Ohio State and Notre Dame. Guy was a dumpster fire of a coordinator for us.
Nuss will outsmart Don Brown this game?
He's terrible. But some here still defend him and excuse it all