It looks like the recession is already here - Atlanta Fed final GDP now at negative 1.2% for Q2

[Gator Fever]

GDPNow

Provides a

www.atlantafed.org

Latest estimate: -2.1 percent — July 1, 2022​

The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the second quarter of 2022 is -2.1 percent on July 1, down from -1.0 percent on June 30. After this morning's Manufacturing ISM Report On Business from the Institute for Supply Management and the construction report from the US Census Bureau, the nowcasts of second-quarter real personal consumption expenditures growth and real gross private domestic investment growth decreased from 1.7 percent and -13.2 percent, respectively, to 0.8 percent and -15.2 percent, respectively.

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I doubt even massaging the numbers they can pull a positive GDP number this quarter. Some more updates on this to go but they will have to declare a recession at the end of the month it appears. Its going to get ugly pretty quick.

 

[jfegaly]

GDPNow

Provides a

www.atlantafed.org

Latest estimate: -2.1 percent — July 1, 2022​

The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the second quarter of 2022 is -2.1 percent on July 1, down from -1.0 percent on June 30. After this morning's Manufacturing ISM Report On Business from the Institute for Supply Management and the construction report from the US Census Bureau, the nowcasts of second-quarter real personal consumption expenditures growth and real gross private domestic investment growth decreased from 1.7 percent and -13.2 percent, respectively, to 0.8 percent and -15.2 percent, respectively.
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I doubt even massaging the numbers they can pull a positive GDP number this quarter. Some more updates on this to go but they will have to declare a recession at the end of the month it appears. Its going to get ugly pretty quick.

No, they will just focus on Trump. It literally has been the lefts calling card for decades. Blame Trump, Bush, (insert pub here)….and if that isn’t enough? Scream racism at the clouds

 

[greyghost14]

I hope this doesn’t come as a shocker to erryone.

 

[Gator Fever]

No, they will just focus on Trump. It literally has been the lefts calling card for decades. Blame Trump, Bush, (insert pub here)….and if that isn’t enough? Scream racism at the clouds

That will backfire with Indies especially after the markets start falling big time again.

What I see happening:

Feds wont be raising rates too many more times and certainly not into 2023 like they said as there will be some deflationary pressure coming from all this mal-investment unwinding.

Gas wont drop like crazy due to all the mess Biden has pulled but I look for it to drop under 4 dollars after things are bad for a while.

Food will stay at crazy prices but will finally stabilize once we are into the real bad part of this.

You may actually see a little deflation on some things.

The Feds will be back to QE and near ZIRP policy sometime in 2023 but wont quite get the same bang for their buck they got after 2008 this time.

Dow will drop to around 22k

 

[nail1988]

GDPNow

Provides a

www.atlantafed.org

Latest estimate: -2.1 percent — July 1, 2022​

The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the second quarter of 2022 is -2.1 percent on July 1, down from -1.0 percent on June 30. After this morning's Manufacturing ISM Report On Business from the Institute for Supply Management and the construction report from the US Census Bureau, the nowcasts of second-quarter real personal consumption expenditures growth and real gross private domestic investment growth decreased from 1.7 percent and -13.2 percent, respectively, to 0.8 percent and -15.2 percent, respectively.

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I doubt even massaging the numbers they can pull a positive GDP number this quarter. Some more updates on this to go but they will have to declare a recession at the end of the month it appears. Its going to get ugly pretty quick.

Sunny @Sunburnt Indian

Lamumba also had Zero GDP growth one quarter (is was revised down of course)

@CFAGator

Bank of America Slashes GDP Forecast to Zero​

Bank of America Slashes GDP Forecast to Zero

Prices are rising rapidly but growth is stagnating. Someone should invent a word for that. | Economy

trib.al

 

[grandhavendiddy]

No, they will just focus on Trump. It literally has been the lefts calling card for decades. Blame Trump, Bush, (insert pub here)….and if that isn’t enough? Scream racism at the clouds

Not a surprise and is a normal outcome from interest rate hikes. Preventable? In part - our profligate spending in the pandemic hurt greatly.

Trump is an easy target for the left.

And yes, as Shapiro says often, the demand for racism greatly outstrips the supply.

 

[Gator Fever]

Who decides if the US is in a recession? Eight economists you've never heard of

In the United States, the economy isn't broadly and officially considered to be in a recession until a relatively unknown group of eight economists says so.

www.cnn.com

There is a clear lack of racial diversity amongst the eight members, and NBER has never had a member who has been a racial minority, according to Gary Hoover, co-chair of the American Economic Association Committee on the Status of Minority Groups in the Economics Profession.

All NBER members are experts in macroeconomics and business cycle research. Each is over 60 years old, and they are all associated with prestigious universities. The group includes two women, one of whom is married to another member.

 

[DCandtheUTBand]

You may actually see a little deflation on some things.

LOL Aldi and Walmart have been having fire sales since May.

Some items at Aldi do not even make it to the one month mark before they go on markdown.

My biggest "steal" this year a $492 after tax out door sectional for $131 after tax. Had to wait 1.5 months on that one but Aldi finally took the hit.

My grill gazebo is cover is getting thin. Bought the same gazebo (entire set) for $40. Its in storage for when the old one finally rips.

I had trash service in 2000 for $20/mo. Stopped it in 2003. I just restarted it for $16/mo. Round trip to dump with current gas prices is $4+. Money wise its break even but when you factor in the 30 min round trip its a no brainer.

No if we could only override FJB and get gas and food back down!

 

[nail1988]

@CFAGator @BSC911 @jimbo1313R

Fox Business tells me Jeff Bezos rips into Low IQ Joe the dumbest man to ever serve.

My suggestion to Mr. Bezos fire all the leftist at the Washington Compost and get some real gum shoe reporters

I would also suggest to Mr. Bezos stop voting DemoRAT to impress your loser friends.

on this however, he is dead on



.https://www.foxbusiness.com/economy/jeff-bezos-joe-biden-inflation-misdirection-misunderstanding

 

[Gator Fever]

Car Repos Are Exploding. That’s a Bad Omen.

A surge in repossessed autos reflects broader economic problems. The question: How might a bursting of an auto bubble affect the broader U.S. economy?

www.barrons.com

Banks’ auto lending standards, meanwhile, went out the window, and then lenders jumped on the bandwagon of overpaying for cars, Lopez says. “Everybody thought the free gravy train would never end,” Lopez says....

Now, he says he has never seen so many people making $2,500 a month owing $1,000 a month in car payments. That’s about double the maximum portion of income many financial advisors recommend allocating toward a car payment. “The idea that the economy is strong? Anyone who is actually doing business sees things are not strong,” says Lopez. “We had a housing bubble in 2008, and now we have an auto bubble.”

As Danielle DiMartino Booth, CEO of Quill Intelligence puts it, companies in the business of repossessing autos are among the first to know when economic trouble is brewing. And now those companies are buying car lots to handle the flood of repossessed, used cars coming to the market because what they are seeing is a longer and harder recession, she says. Lopez says banks are in turn leasing more land to handle an expected car-repossession surge.

 

[jfegaly]

I am shocked the Beijing Biden lead us down the toilet.

 

[Buje]

Car Repos Are Exploding. That’s a Bad Omen.

A surge in repossessed autos reflects broader economic problems. The question: How might a bursting of an auto bubble affect the broader U.S. economy?

www.barrons.com

Banks’ auto lending standards, meanwhile, went out the window, and then lenders jumped on the bandwagon of overpaying for cars, Lopez says. “Everybody thought the free gravy train would never end,” Lopez says....

Now, he says he has never seen so many people making $2,500 a month owing $1,000 a month in car payments. That’s about double the maximum portion of income many financial advisors recommend allocating toward a car payment. “The idea that the economy is strong? Anyone who is actually doing business sees things are not strong,” says Lopez. “We had a housing bubble in 2008, and now we have an auto bubble.”

As Danielle DiMartino Booth, CEO of Quill Intelligence puts it, companies in the business of repossessing autos are among the first to know when economic trouble is brewing. And now those companies are buying car lots to handle the flood of repossessed, used cars coming to the market because what they are seeing is a longer and harder recession, she says. Lopez says banks are in turn leasing more land to handle an expected car-repossession surge.

wonder when used car prices Will go down. Heard end of 2022 and early 2023, but seems everyone with trucks is sitting on the sidelines instead of trading down. And j need a truck for my camper and boat but i refuse to pay 50K for a used truck with 80k miles on it.

 

[Gator Fever]

wonder when used car prices Will go down. Heard end of 2022 and early 2023, but seems everyone with trucks is sitting on the sidelines instead of trading down. And j need a truck for my camper and boat but i refuse to pay 50K for a used truck with 80k miles on it.

Not sure but some people think banks will try and limit supply of repo sells for a while to try and keep prices inflated since they made loans on those inflated prices. I think private sellers will have to come down quite a bit soon. Used trucks are way overpriced now.

 

[instaGATOR]

My kids were in diapers during the 80's recession.

I feel sorry for those working stiffs with kids now, I know what it's like....
Hopefully, help is on the way in Nov...

 

[Buje]

Not sure but some people think banks will try and limit supply of repo sells for a while to try and keep prices inflated since they made loans on those inflated prices. I think private sellers will have to come down quite a bit soon. Used trucks are way overpriced now.

That’s why I’m holding off. I’ll make due with borrowing my dads 1500, or my brothers diesel van. Not ideal but i won’t pay these absurd prices. Would love to go outside Florida and camp but not at the expense of paying 100% more for a used truck.

 

[Gator Fever]

We will be getting the final Q2 GDP now estimate in the next hour or so. Curious what it will say.

 

[tb8232]

The Biden administration cannot define "woman" so is it a surprise, they now cannot define recession? Or want to change the definition?

 

[Mdfgator]

you take the sugar out of sugar babies and you will have a bit of a tantrum.....

 

[Gator Fever]

Well their final estimate is out and its down to negative 1.2% from a negative 2.1% at one time previously. Curious to see what the announced number Friday is. Will they massage "seasonally adjust" the numbers and inventory component enough to get a zero or barely positive reading not to have the word recession out there. We will see I guess.

 

[NavigatorII]

Not sure but some people think banks will try and limit supply of repo sells for a while to try and keep prices inflated since they made loans on those inflated prices. I think private sellers will have to come down quite a bit soon. Used trucks are way overpriced now.

I agree some of this but............ there's a reason used vehicles, especially trucks due to their utility are high. Go price a new one. And that's why my truck is 19 years old and rising. I'll run it until the wheels fall off. lol

 

[nail1988]

@CFAGator

Consumer Confidence Falls For Third Straight Month on Inflation and Recession Worries​

Consumer Confidence Falls For Third Straight Month on Inflation and Recession Worries

People are increasingly unhappy with economic conditions as inflation keeps rising and a recession looks increasingly likely. | Economy

trib.al