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Economic activity.

M

Mdfgator

Bull Gator
Jun 24, 2017
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Retail sales rose 0.7% in September (+1.0% including revisions to prior months), easily beating the consensus expected gain of 0.3%. Retail sales are up 3.8% versus a year ago.
Sales excluding autos increased 0.6% in September (+1.0% including revisions to prior months). The consensus expected a 0.2% gain. These sales are up 3.2% in the past year.
The largest increases in September, were for autos, non-store retailers (internet and mail-order), and restaurants & bars.
Sales excluding autos, building materials, and gas rose 0.7% in September, and were up 0.9% including revisions to prior months. These sales were up at 7.1% annual rate in Q3 versus the Q2 average.
Implications: A very strong report on the consumer today with retail sales increasing 0.7%, easily beating the consensus expected gain of 0.3%. Factoring in revisions to previous months, retail sales grew an even faster 1.0%. Sales rose in eight of the thirteen major categories for the month led by autos, which increased 1.0%, followed by sales at non-store retailers (internet & mail order), and restaurants & bars. “Core” sales, which exclude volatile categories such as autos, building materials, and gas stations – crucial for estimating GDP – increased by 0.7% in September and were revised upward for previous months. These sales were up at a 7.1% annual rate in Q3 compared to the Q2 average. This is consistent with our view that real GDP growth will be unusually strong in the third quarter, before decelerating rapidly late this year. Consumers are starting to run out of excess COVID savings, which were boosted by temporary and artificial government stimulus payment. Over the past twelve months, overall retail sales have risen by 3.8%, basically matching inflation, indicating only a slight increase in “real” retail sales. While retail sales boomed and hit another record high this month, real retail sales peaked back in April 2022 and have since declined by 2.1% from that peak. Our view remains that the tightening in monetary policy since last year will eventually deliver a recession. Expect more deterioration in real retail sales later this year.

Is blistering. Don’t let your rabid partisanship cloud your vision…0
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Mdfgator said:
Any patriots happy with positive news???
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NavigatorII said:
It's way over your head half nickel. CPA. But let's dumb it down for you. 😂 You bought two Burger King Whoppers today for $10. Two years ago you could get 2 Whoppers for $5. That's not a real increase in sales.

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Cpa or bookkeeper? You don’t know the difference between real and nominal sales. You were not a cpa. No chance
 
NavigatorII said:
What a maroooon. Already sent Cucky to the showers with a posted screen capture of my license. You on the other hand need no verification of being a certified loon.

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How the heck don’t you know the difference between nominal numbers and real numbers? It’s impossible you were a bookkeep or an assistant to The the traveling secretary of the bookkeeper
 
Poor half nickel. Intellect so low, he can sit on a nickel and have room to swing his legs. 😂 😂 😂
 
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I'm starting to believe Ghost was right, my apologies. MDFer might just be Cucky's sock!!! The intelligence factor matches!! :oops:

BSCUCK!!! 😂@ghostofmatchesmalone

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Driven by inflation, which Government measurements do not include food OR fuel…

BoA reported this week they have a $138B unrealized loss coming due to US Bond loses.

Our economy is dumpster fire. Obama 3.0 is a disgrace!
 
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JimGaster said:
Driven by inflation, which Government measurements do not include food OR fuel…

BoA reported this week they have a $138B unrealized loss coming due to US Bond loses.

Our economy is dumpster fire. Obama 3.0 is a disgrace!
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no thats not what they said nickel nuts, they currently have that amount in unrealized loses on the books, the bonds will be held to maturity, the losses will not come due. I would not worry about banks like b of a, they are paying customers nothing on deposits and collecting 5.5% interest from the fed on those deposits. this is yet another downstream effect of the unhinged monetary policy we see from the lockdowns and stimi of 2020 2021. JUST THE TIP
 
Mdfgator said:
no thats not what they said nickel nuts, they currently have that amount in unrealized loses on the books, the bonds will be held to maturity, the losses will not come due. I would not worry about banks like b of a, they are paying customers nothing on deposits and collecting 5.5% interest from the fed on those deposits. this is yet another downstream effect of the unhinged monetary policy we see from the lockdowns and stimi of 2020 2021. JUST THE TIP
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Bank of America nurses $100-billion paper loss after big bet in bond market​


financialpost.com

Bank of America nurses $100-billion paper loss after big bet in bond market

Sum more than double the cost to other U.S. lenders that channelled flood of deposits to cash
financialpost.com financialpost.com

🤡 🤡 🤡

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We still think a recession is coming, but it definitely didn’t start in the third quarter. Instead, as we set out below, it looks like real GDP expanded at a 4.7% annual rate. If we are right about that number, that would be the fastest pace of growth for any quarter since 2014, with the exception of the re-openings from COVID in 2020-21.

Keep in mind, though that even with growth that fast, the growth rate since the end of 2019 – the pre-COVID peak – would be only 1.9% per year, reflecting an underlying trend that is still slow.

Why do we still think a recession is coming? Because after the surge in money creation in 2020-21, monetary policy started getting tight in 2022. In the past year the M2 measure of the money supply is down 3.7%. Meanwhile the yield curve (we like to compare the 10-year Treasury yield to the target federal funds rate) has been inverted since late 2022 and is likely to stay that way for at least the next several months.

Higher short-term interest rates mean businesses have the ability to lock in healthy nominal returns on cash with minimal risk. In turn, this should lead to a reduction in risk-taking and business investment.

Meanwhile, jobs are still expanding rapidly. Payrolls are up 2.1% in the past year. During the economic expansion that happened before COVID (mid-2009 through early 2020), a pace that fast (2.1% or more) only happened when the unemployment rate was about 5.5%, which meant plenty of workers still available for hire. Now it’s happening when the unemployment rate is less than 4.0%. This suggests employers are out over their skis and vulnerable to any softness in demand.

The bottom line is that the economy grew rapidly in Q3 but Q4 and beyond are likely to be much slower.

Consumption: “Real” (inflation-adjusted) retail sales outside the auto sector rose at a 3.7% annual rate in Q3 while it looks like real services, which makes up most of consumer spending, should be up at about a 4.0% pace. The one weak spot was autos and light trucks, which declined at a 2.5% rate. Putting it all together, we estimate that real consumer spending on goods and services, combined, increased at a strong 4.1% rate, adding 2.8 points to the real GDP growth rate (4.1 times the consumption share of GDP, which is 68%, equals 2.8).

Business Investment: We estimate a 4.5% growth rate for business investment, with gains in intellectual property and equipment leading the way while commercial construction was roughly unchanged. A 4.5% growth rate would add 0.6 points to real GDP growth. (4.5 times the 14% business investment share of GDP equals 0.6).

Home Building: Residential construction is showing some resilience in spite of some lingering pain from higher mortgage rates. Home building looks like it grew at a 7.5% rate, which would add 0.3 points from real GDP growth. (7.5 times the 4% residential construction share of GDP equals 0.3).

Government: Only direct government purchases of goods and services (not transfer payments) count when calculating GDP. We estimate these purchases – which represent a 17% share of GDP – were up at a 1.8% rate in Q3, which would add 0.3 points to the GDP growth rate (1.8 times the 17% government purchase share of GDP equals 0.3).

Trade: Looks like the trade deficit shrank in Q3, as exports expended rapidly in spite of foreign economic weakness. We’re projecting net exports will add 0.5 points to real GDP growth.

Inventories: Inventories look like they grew a little bit faster in Q3 than in Q2, suggesting they’ll add about 0.2 points to the growth rate of real GDP. When a recession hits, we expect inventory declines to play a significant role in the drop in GDP.

Add it all up, and we get a 4.7% annual real GDP growth rate for the third quarter. Look for much slower growth in the fourth quarter.
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