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Playoff committee rankings...

Gator Fever

Bull Gator
Feb 13, 2008
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Hearing all this early talk on the TV/ radio about Clemson being done and ND having no chance.

I think the talking heads may be way off here especially with Clemson just looking at the history of the playoff the past 7 years.

Only one 1 loss power 5 conference champ has ever missed the playoff. I think an undefeated ND took a spot that season.

I need to look at rankings/schedule to see if there would be any chance a non-power 5 undefeated conference winner could take a slot.

No one loss power 5 conference champion has ever been left out by a one loss non-conference champion power 5 team taking a slot.

Having pointed out all that I do think there are 2 SEC scenarios where there would be a strong argument to give a 2nd SEC team a slot if they only had one loss costing Clemson to be left out.
 
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Clemson shouldn’t be in any playoff as far as I’m concerned. They just lost the 1 game they have all season and they only scored 3 points and looked bad. Who do they play the rest of the season that would say “hey they deserve a 2nd chance” if they were to win that game?

Let me add that I think Clemson’s best chance is to hope for UGA to go undefeated so they can at least say we only lost by 7 to an undefeated SEC team. That may be better for their resume than any win they are going to have.
 
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Clemson shouldn’t be in any playoff as far as I’m concerned. They just lost the 1 game they have all season and they only scored 3 points and looked bad. Who do they play the rest of the season that would say “hey they deserve a 2nd chance” if they were to win that game?

Let me add that I think Clemson’s best chance is to hope for UGA to go undefeated so they can at least say we only lost by 7 to an undefeated SEC team. That may be better for their resume than any win they are going to have.

My 2 SEC scenarios where I think they might leave them out even with a conference championship is if GA went undefeated then lost in the SECCG or if Bama or A&M's only loss was the SECCG.

Looking at the non-power 5 Cincy starting so high would cause an argument if they won them all and ND was 10-2 or 11-1 giving them a top 10 win.
 
I would say ND, Cincy and BYU are the only teams with any chance whatsoever as a non-power 5 to get a spot if undefeated.

ND is in if undefeated. There would be an argument if them and Clemson both had 1 loss depending on the opponent of the ACC game.

Like said above Cincy might need a win over a 10-2 ND team. Cincy starting so high puts a lot of pressure on that group letting them in.

BYU would probably need a USC that ended up 10-2 and PAC 12 champions to have a chance to get in undefeated. They probably lose a few this season maybe starting this week however.
 
Clemson shouldn’t be in any playoff as far as I’m concerned. They just lost the 1 game they have all season and they only scored 3 points and looked bad. Who do they play the rest of the season that would say “hey they deserve a 2nd chance” if they were to win that game?

Let me add that I think Clemson’s best chance is to hope for UGA to go undefeated so they can at least say we only lost by 7 to an undefeated SEC team. That may be better for their resume than any win they are going to have.
I know uga has a favorable schedule, but I was never that impressed by Daniels last year, and this year has already shown that I might have been right. I’m willing to cut him some slack for playing hurt and going against a pretty talented defense, but I promise you that while we might not beat Clemson, we would DEFINITELY score on them. Uga had a great defense last year and we hear all off season about how if only they had Daniels they would have gone undefeated and beaten every nfl team blah blah. Let’s not give uga a free pass to the playoffs just yet. Rn they look like a very vulnerable team. If they get in a dogfight with someone able to score on their defense, I think they’ll have trouble keeping up. They just look really overrated to me and very vulnerable.

I know that wasn’t your point, but I just felt the need to chime in
 
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Crazy how that UCF - Louisville game ended. Officially ends their less than 1% chance to make the playoff. ND, Cincy and BYU still alive.
 
How I see it now as we go into mostly intra conference play.

SEC winner undefeated or 1 loss is a lock.

Big 10 winner undefeated or 1 loss is a lock.

PAC 12 winner if undefeated/1 loss Oregon or 1 loss USC is a lock. Others at 1 loss could possibly be left out but a win over a 1 loss Oregon would really help their case.

ND would get a slot if undefeated.

BYU is highly likely to get a slot if undefeated. They play half of the PAC 12 and already beat 2 of them that were ranked at the time. The non-power 5 uproar would be huge if they didnt with that schedule.

Cincy is going to be close if undefeated. Starting ranked so high helps but still may need a 10-2 ND win since some of their opponents took early losses.

If a non-power 5 takes a slot who would take a slot if it was down to a 1 loss Oklahoma or Clemson? The ACC didn't help Clemson yesterday. Both could be left out but the chances are at least one would get in.
 
How I see it now as we go into mostly intra conference play.

SEC winner undefeated or 1 loss is a lock.

Big 10 winner undefeated or 1 loss is a lock.

PAC 12 winner if undefeated/1 loss Oregon or 1 loss USC is a lock. Others at 1 loss could possibly be left out but a win over a 1 loss Oregon would really help their case.

ND would get a slot if undefeated.

BYU is highly likely to get a slot if undefeated. They play half of the PAC 12 and already beat 2 of them that were ranked at the time. The non-power 5 uproar would be huge if they didnt with that schedule.

Cincy is going to be close if undefeated. Starting ranked so high helps but still may need a 10-2 ND win since some of their opponents took early losses.

If a non-power 5 takes a slot who would take a slot if it was down to a 1 loss Oklahoma or Clemson? The ACC didn't help Clemson yesterday. Both could be left out but the chances are at least one would get in.
Clemson didn't help themselves. The Wreck lost to Northern Illinois at home, then just played them within 6 points @ Clemson.

Clemson has more losses coming. I don't know to who, but they took a giant step back to the pack this year. Maybe Wake. Definitely not FSWho

Clemson seems to need a generational QB to be elite. They were lucky to get two almost back-to-back.
 
Clemson shouldn't have a shot at the playoffs. They may not play a ranked team the rest of the year.

If they get in without some serious chaos then it's a total joke and we should move to 12 teams in the playoffs next year and be done with it.
 
Clemson shouldn't have a shot at the playoffs. They may not play a ranked team the rest of the year.

If they get in without some serious chaos then it's a total joke and we should move to 12 teams in the playoffs next year and be done with it.
They dropped to 7, and that loss is going to be an anchor around their neck. I think they are done, unless, as you said, there is some serious chaos.

Plus, even with schedule by Charmin, they have looked so bad I expect another loss or two is coming their way.
 
Clemson shouldn't have a shot at the playoffs. They may not play a ranked team the rest of the year.

If they get in without some serious chaos then it's a total joke and we should move to 12 teams in the playoffs next year and be done with it.
Its going to be close. A lot will depend on whether one of those three non-power 5 teams is able to get in. If one of them doesn't this could be the year finally no power 5 winner has 2 losses because of Oregon.

Edit: Looks like I was wrong about their always being a 2 or more loss power 5 champ. The first year of the playoff all 5 had one loss or better teams.
 
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It looks like the ACC is done short of the mighty Wake Forest running the table.

With Oklahoma not looking great and the Big 12 results so far I think even a 1 loss UCLA if they upset Oregon and somehow ran the table from this point would get in over them.

If Cincy beats ND they are looking a little more likely to get in undefeated but ND can probably forget about beating out a 1 loss Oklahoma if they lose a game also since USC and their ACC opponents are struggling.
 
From what I can tell there looks to be 2 legit teams in Bama and UGA and then quite a bit of parity and a 2nd tier of probably 5-6 teams for those other 2 spots. The ACC is already out and won’t be getting any teams in.
 
From what I can tell there looks to be 2 legit teams in Bama and UGA and then quite a bit of parity and a 2nd tier of probably 5-6 teams for those other 2 spots. The ACC is already out and won’t be getting any teams in.
i agree with that. The run defense on Georgia looks crazy. That freak nose tackle makes that possible I guess.

Its going to get really interesting with a possible Oklahoma Big 12 champ if one of the 3 non-power 5 teams took a slot.

Could a 1 loss SECCG loser take that last spot over them if they have 1 loss. Would they give enough extra weight to the conference championhip to take Oklahoma?
 
From what I can tell there looks to be 2 legit teams in Bama and UGA and then quite a bit of parity and a 2nd tier of probably 5-6 teams for those other 2 spots. The ACC is already out and won’t be getting any teams in.
Feels about right - same opinion here. Those 2 can be had though - they 'aren't head and shoulders better than that next group.
 
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Interesting chart there though I think some of the % look off. I think there would be more than a 20% chance Cincy was to go undefeated and ND was to go 10-2 if Cincy wins that game which might get them in barring an undefeated Oklahoma or an undefeated BYU complicating things for them.

I think Oregon would still control their destiny with a loss to UCLA as they would win the conference still if they didn't slip up again and they have that OSU win on the road. I would have their chances higher than 15% in that scenario even though someone else could beat them also eliminating them.



TEAM
PLAYOFFWEEKOPPONENTSWING W/ WSWING W/ LTOTAL SWING*
Alabama54.9%13Auburn+8.7-28.8+/-13.4
Georgia54.29Florida+13.0-29.118.0
Oklahoma39.46Texas+12.2-20.315.2
Oregon31.88UCLA+12.1-17.314.2
Notre Dame24.85Cincinnati+14.2-18.916.2
Iowa18.46Penn St.+10.7-11.010.9
Michigan17.313Ohio St.+11.9-14.413.0
Ohio St.14.913Michigan+14.3-11.812.9
Penn St.13.913Michigan St.+11.4-10.811.1
Mississippi10.75Alabama+20.6-5.38.5
Michigan St.10.312Ohio St.+14.2-7.39.6
Florida10.39Georgia+19.8-8.812.2
Cincinnati9.75Notre Dame+9.9-7.48.5
Texas8.66Oklahoma+9.6-5.87.2
Arkansas6.712Alabama+16.3-4.06.4
Baylor6.511Oklahoma+9.4-4.35.9
UCLA6.28Oregon+7.4-5.26.1
N.C. State6.211Wake Forest+5.2-5.55.4
Wake Forest5.212Clemson+9.4-3.75.4
*Total swing is an average of the absolute values of swings in playoff odds with a win or loss, weighted by the likelihood of each result.
 
Another crazy week and looking more like we could have a couple of power 5 conferences with 2 loss champs.

Cincy and BYU looking more like they could get in if they were to run the table.
 
Well Cincy is the only non-power 5 alive for a spot now most likely though I guess a 1 loss ND could come into play if there are 2 power 5 conferences with 2 or more loss champs (if Cincy loses a game).

I think the main thing Cincy needs to have happen is for the SECCG not to end up being Bama against an undefeated Georgia and Georgia losing the game. They might need the PAC 12 champ to have 2 losses also.

I would still say any 1 loss SEC (except maybe Ole Miss if they missed the SECCG) or Big 10 team fully controls their destiny and also Oregon.
 
Well Cincy is the only non-power 5 alive for a spot now most likely though I guess a 1 loss ND could come into play if there are 2 power 5 conferences with 2 or more loss champs (if Cincy loses a game).

I think the main thing Cincy needs to have happen is for the SECCG not to end up being Bama against an undefeated Georgia and Georgia losing the game. They might need the PAC 12 champ to have 2 losses also.

I would still say any 1 loss SEC (except maybe Ole Miss if they missed the SECCG) or Big 10 team fully controls their destiny and also Oregon.
For Cincy’s sake to get a bid they obviously need to win out and then hope ND goes 11-1 to make that win look more impressive. That’s Cincy’s big win right now and they don’t play anybody else that is going to give them any cache.
 
For Cincy’s sake to get a bid they obviously need to win out and then hope ND goes 11-1 to make that win look more impressive. That’s Cincy’s big win right now and they don’t play anybody else that is going to give them any cache.
Yep an 11-1 ND would really help their argument.
 
Teams that likely control their own destinies at this point:

Wake Forest
Baylor
Oklahoma
Oklahoma State
Michigan State
Michigan
Ohio State
Iowa
Oregon
Bama
Georgia

Teams that if they win out have a chance to get in:

Cincy: (I think the committee might only let them in over a 1 loss Pitt or 1 loss Wake Forest ACC champion as far as 1 loss power 5 champs go). They probably need Oregon to lose and Georgia not to have a lone loss in the SECCG.

Pitt: (FCS loss and ACC hurts them but could get a spot possibly if Cincy loses a game in addition to Cincy's scenario playing out)

Ole Miss: (Would take a lot but not totally out of the question. May even have a real good argument against a 1 loss Pitt or 1 loss Wake Forest ACC champion)

Notre Dame: (Would take even more than Pitt and Ole Miss needs to happen)
 
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1. Georgia
2. Michigan State
3. Bama
4. Oklahoma
5. Cincy
6. Oregon
7. Ohio State
8. Wake Forest

Here is my guess on what they do with these initial rankings. Cincy and Oregon are the hard ones I think to peg down on what they do this initial week. I think they could put Cincy or Oregon anywhere from # 4 to #6.

As far as Georgia getting in its getting close to a lock now even with a loss to Bama in the SECCG.

This might be the only scenario that could possible leave Georgia out.

12-1 Bama
12-1 Ohio State - Big 10 champ
Undefeated Oklahoma (I now think Georgia would go over a 1 loss Big 12 champ)
12-1 Oregon with OSU winning the Big 10
 
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Well Georgia is pretty much a lock to get in now.

Who does the committee take at #4 if Georgia wins the SEC and these are the rankings before the championship games and the teams win their championship games. My guess is they might say the 2 good wins at the end are enough to put a 1 loss Big 12 winner in over Cincy.

Would the committee take a 2 loss Bama over Notre Dame if Oregon or Cincy lost a game and the Big 12 champ had 2 losses?

1. Georgia
2. Bama
3. 1 loss Big 10 champ
4. Oregon
5. Cincy
6. 1 loss Oklahoma State or Oklahoma
7. Notre Dame
 
I predict that Alabama will beat Georgia in Atlanta in a fairly close game and both teams will make the playoffs. If either Ohio State, Michigan or Michigan St. emerge with only 1 loss, they will be in - same with Oregon. Cincinnati's only chance, IMO, is to be unbeaten and have Oregon lose again or have no Big 10 team end with only 1 loss. I think if Georgia beats Bama in a close game, the committee will put a 2 -loss Bama team in over Cincy. By the way, SMU could beat Cincy this Saturday and if they don't, a very good Houston team could beat them in the AAC title game.
 
I predict that Alabama will beat Georgia in Atlanta in a fairly close game and both teams will make the playoffs. If either Ohio State, Michigan or Michigan St. emerge with only 1 loss, they will be in - same with Oregon. Cincinnati's only chance, IMO, is to be unbeaten and have Oregon lose again or have no Big 10 team end with only 1 loss. I think if Georgia beats Bama in a close game, the committee will put a 2 -loss Bama team in over Cincy. By the way, SMU could beat Cincy this Saturday and if they don't, a very good Houston team could beat them in the AAC title game.
Yep and you may be right but there will be a lot of pressure both ways on that Cincy - Bama scenario. I think for ND to beat out a 2 loss Bama possibly Cincy would have to be undefeated. This week may shake things up again.

Worst possible playoff scenario:

Georgia
Cincy
Oklahoma State
Notre Dame
 
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I guess the big argument now would be if the committee places Oklahoma over Cincy at the end if Bama, Oklahoma and Cincy all won their championship games. I think Oklahoma State with 3 pretty good wins would be a lock over Cincy but not so sure about Oklahoma now if they beat Oklahoma State 2 straight times.

Notre Dame hanging around and has a chance to get in if Georgia beats Bama.
 
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Well its likely to look something like this when released:

1. Georgia
2. Michigan
3. Bama
4. Cincy
5. Oklahoma State
6. Notre Dame

What does the committee do if Bama beats Georgia and Oklahoma State beats Baylor with no other upsets? My guess is they take Oklahoma State over Cincy.

What does the committee do if Bama loses a close game to Georgia and there are no upsets? My guess is Bama gets left out after a lot of pushing for them. Oklahoma State would have 3 good wins and a conference championship and with ND in the mix there are just too many arguments against Bama (like a 4 OT win against a 6-6 team) to beat out Cincy in that scenario I think.

What does the committee do if Bama loses a close game to Georgia and there is either an upset of Michigan or Cincy? Oklahoma State with a win is obviously in but who gets a spot out of Bama or ND? This will be a close one as Baylor would actually have a good argument to be higher than Bama with their wins and the conference championship.
 
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