Dec employment report

[CFAGator]

Mixed report that both sides will no doubt claim victory on.

Good: unemployment rate falls to 3.9%, back to early 2019 levels and below the 4.1% expected.

Bad: Only 199k jobs added versus expectations of 422k.

Good: large upward revisions to Oct and Nov reports, adding an extra 200k jobs. Expected large revisions to this Dec report given the mismatch between the strong unemployment rate and strong ADP report.

Bad: Participation rate unchanged at 61.9%

Good: Employment to population rate increased to 59.5%.

Good/Bad depending on if employer or employee: Average hourly earnings grow 4.7% YOY

 

[GhostOfMatchesMalone]

Bad: Only 199k jobs added versus expectations of 422k.

Sure? @BSC911 started a thread claiming the economy added 800k jobs. Are you saying that claim is inaccurate?

 

[CFAGator]

Sure? @BSC911 started a thread claiming the economy added 800k jobs. Are you saying that claim is inaccurate?

They're two different reports. ADP is a private payroll processor that comes out with their own estimate based on what they see in their business. Their estimate was 800k new jobs in December.

The government report is complied two ways. A survey of employers to get the # of jobs (199k), and a survey of households to get the unemployment % (3.9%).

They typically differ a good amount month to month, but through revisions to both in following months, they tend to get in line on a multi-month average.

The bigger discrepancy is the government report showing a drop in unployment rate and only 199k net new jobs. The feeling is that the employer survey is missing new jobs in self employment, which is being captured by the household survey.

 

[GhostOfMatchesMalone]

They're two different reports.

Gotcha. So @BSC911 was trying to pull another fast one, and got caught. Tsk tsk.

 

[CFAGator]

Gotcha. So @BSC911 was trying to pull another fast one, and got caught. Tsk tsk.

Not really. Expectations by everyone are that we'll see large revisions in following months, just like we saw the last few reports, that will move the government report closer to ADP.

 

[GhostOfMatchesMalone]

Not really.

So you think @BSC911 was honest in claiming that the ADP jobs report was actually today's report?

Ok.

 

[CFAGator]

So you think @BSC911 was honest in claiming that the ADP jobs report was actually today's report?

Ok.

Nothing to be honest or dishonest about, they are two different measurements of the labor market. Neither are a perfect look at the labor market from month to month, that's why everyone needs to look at the revisions to prior months. Economists pay close attention to the revisions, politicians don't.

Personally I'd rather use data from a private payroll provider instead of the BLS that just uses an army of phone monkeys to call employers and households during one week of the month.

 

[Sunburnt Indian]

ADP is often times off in la la land. I would never crow about an ADP report. Of course, BSC would. BSC is not knowledgeable in economics 101, as he so often proves.

I did not come here and declare BSC stupid. I came here and listened while BSC declared himself stupid. I recently confirmed for a newcomer who asked if BSC is stupid.

 

[CFAGator]

ADP is often times off in la la land. I would never crow about an ADP report. Of course, BSC would. BSC is not knowledgeable in economics 101, as he so often proves.

I did not come here and declare BSC stupid. I came here and listened while BSC declared himself stupid. I recently confirmed for a newcomer who asked if BSC is stupid.

From month to month that is correct, ADP definitely sees much larger swings since they make less adjustments to the data, but they tend to match up fairly well over the long run once all revisions are included.

 

[CFAGator]

 

[Uniformed_ReRe]

Couldn’t the shrinking workforce mainly be a result of the slowing growth of an aging population?

When people over 55 get laid off (as many did in 2020) they often end up semi-retired due to a combination of age discrimination and the fact that they often have some money saved and can get by with occasional under-the-table jobs.

 

[DCandtheUTBand]

bad/worse depending on if employer or employee: Average hourly earnings grow 4.7% YOY

FIFY

employer took a hit...employee raise woefully short of inflation.

 

[NavigatorII]

Couldn’t the shrinking workforce mainly be a result of the slowing growth of an aging population?

When people over 55 get laid off (as many did in 2020) they often end up semi-retired due to a combination of age discrimination and the fact that they often have some money saved and can get by with occasional under-the-table jobs.

A pile of people simply left the work force. Many took buyouts and said FTS and went off the grid (in a manner of speaking). Supply chains are still disrupted if not completely broken. It's only a matter of time before the FED steps in and jacks up rates. Everything from consumer spending, real estate, and Wall Street will be sucking wind When that happens, shit, meet fan.

 

[CFAGator]

A pile of people simply left the work force. Many took buyouts and said FTS and went off the grid (in a manner of speaking). Supply chains are still disrupted if not completely broken. It's only a matter of time before the FED steps in and jacks up rates. Everything from consumer spending, real estate, and Wall Street will be sucking wind When that happens, shit, meet fan.

Don't disagree with any of this. The Fed will likely raise rates three times this year, which should help slow the economy and inflation, I just don't think it'll have a huge impact, at least not this year. In 2018 the Fed raised rates 4 times, and the economy slowed from 3% growth in 2018 to 2.1% in 2019, and this was during the ridiculous trade war.

The Fed quickly reversed course and cut rates three times in 2019 as growth continued to slow, just as they would likely do again if the economy slowed more than expected.

We're still expected to see above average growth in 2022 as supply chains repair and employment continues to grow, then normalize more towards 2% growth in 2023. If we do see the shit hitting the fan that many here are hoping for, it likely wouldn't come until 2023 at the earliest.

 

[DCandtheUTBand]

The Biden Effect: Over 3 Million Jobs Lost Due To Employer Closures Or Lost Business

A new report revealed on CNBC Friday that 3.1 million people have been unable to work due to their employer closing or losing business as inflation and government regulations continue to cripple the job market. The information was discussed during a “CNBC Investing Club with Jim Cramer” report...

www.dailywire.com

 

[GhostOfMatchesMalone]

Nothing to be honest or dishonest about, they are two different measurements of the labor market.

And he didn't clarify that.

Ironically, you said he couldn't be dishonest, then explained how he was being dishonest LMAO!

I so love toying with dems.

 

[GhostOfMatchesMalone]

The Biden Effect: Over 3 Million Jobs Lost Due To Employer Closures Or Lost Business

A new report revealed on CNBC Friday that 3.1 million people have been unable to work due to their employer closing or losing business as inflation and government regulations continue to cripple the job market. The information was discussed during a “CNBC Investing Club with Jim Cramer” report...

www.dailywire.com

Another sure sign of the booming economy.

 

[NavigatorII]

Don't disagree with any of this. The Fed will likely raise rates three times this year, which should help slow the economy and inflation, I just don't think it'll have a huge impact, at least not this year. In 2018 the Fed raised rates 4 times, and the economy slowed from 3% growth in 2018 to 2.1% in 2019, and this was during the ridiculous trade war.

There's nothing ridiculous about the US trade war vs China. They are a real threat, as they refuse to do business with companies that do not hand over their intellectual properties. If we imported less from China, we'd put a hurting on China in a big way and keep more jobs here.

Dumbass Pantshitter Biden.

Biden: China not economic threat to U.S.​

 

[CFAGator]

 

[WW HEISENBERG]

Mixed report that both sides will no doubt claim victory on.

Good: unemployment rate falls to 3.9%, back to early 2019 levels and below the 4.1% expected.

Bad: Only 199k jobs added versus expectations of 422k.

Good: large upward revisions to Oct and Nov reports, adding an extra 200k jobs. Expected large revisions to this Dec report given the mismatch between the strong unemployment rate and strong ADP report.

Bad: Participation rate unchanged at 61.9%

Good: Employment to population rate increased to 59.5%.

Good/Bad depending on if employer or employee: Average hourly earnings grow 4.7% YOY

You can basically scratch your #1 good off the list. When you incentivize people to not work they are not seeking employment and therefore not counted as unemployed. That figure is horribly skewed and inaccurate.

 

[NavigatorII]

You can basically scratch your #1 good off the list. When you incentivize people to not work they are not seeking employment and therefore not counted as unemployed. That figure is horribly skewed and inaccurate.

We've been saying this for over a year. To make matters worse, the Pantshitter's Build Back Broke is attempting to extend this for years on end.

 

[CFAGator]

You can basically scratch your #1 good off the list. When you incentivize people to not work they are not seeking employment and therefore not counted as unemployed. That figure is horribly skewed and inaccurate.

You know all this info is publicly available if you just attempt to look it up. The decrease in unemployment in December is not due to a shrinking labor force, as the labor force participation rate was unchanged at 61.9%, and the employment to population ratio increased by 0.2% to 59.5% in December.

The labor force participation rate has increased 0.4% this year, and the employment to population ratio has increased 2.1%.

https://www.bls.gov/news.release/pdf/empsit.pdf

 

[NavigatorII]

You know all this info is publicly available if you just attempt to look it up. The decrease in unemployment in December is not due to a shrinking labor force, as the labor force participation rate was unchanged at 61.9%, and the employment to population ratio increased by 0.2% to 59.5% in December.

The labor force participation rate has increased 0.4% this year, and the employment to population ratio has increased 2.1%.

https://www.bls.gov/news.release/pdf/empsit.pdf

Do you think maybe even Brandon's administration doesn't believe this shit either? If so, why are they talking about MORE stimulus INCLUDING shoving Build Back Broke down our throats?

What's behind the push for a fourth stimulus check

IRS has distributed almost 170 million payments. But hardship remains widespread as the Omicron variant spreads.

www.cbsnews.com

 

[GhostOfMatchesMalone]

There's nothing ridiculous about the US trade war vs China. They are a real threat, as they refuse to do business with companies that do not hand over their intellectual properties. If we imported less from China, we'd put a hurting on China in a big way and keep more jobs here.

Dumbass Pantshitter Biden.

Biden: China not economic threat to U.S.​

View embedded media

What do you know.....the 'lifelong Republican' hates that Trump was mean to the commies.

 

[GhostOfMatchesMalone]

You can basically scratch your #1 good off the list. When you incentivize people to not work they are not seeking employment and therefore not counted as unemployed. That figure is horribly skewed and inaccurate.

It's amazing to watch, isn't it? We had REAL sub 4% unemployment under Trump AND a REAL booming economy, and the dems ignored and claimed Trump was a national disgrace.

Now we have a President* who literally shits himself in front of world leaders, and the dems think he's oh so dreamy.

 

[CFAGator]

What do you know.....the 'lifelong Republican' hates that Trump was mean to the commies.

Just another example of the fake conservatives that took over the Republican party.

You guys are cheering more government intervention in markets, through tariffs of all things. Notice how people like Bernie Sanders and other far left never criticized Trumps tariffs? Because they love additional corporate taxes on US companies, which is 100% what the Trump tariffs were. Also notice how Biden hasn't unwound them?

This is why the trade war was ridiculous, because tariffs have never worked in the history of our country. The other country always retaliates with their own tariffs and you end up with nothing but higher taxes on both sides.

 

[GhostOfMatchesMalone]

Just another example of the fake conservatives that took over the Republican party.

You guys are cheering more government intervention in markets, through tariffs of all things. Notice how people like Bernie Sanders and other far left never criticized Trumps tariffs? Because they love additional corporate taxes on US companies, which is 100% what the Trump tariffs were. Also notice how Biden hasn't unwound them?

This is why the trade war was ridiculous, because tariffs have never worked in the history of our country. The other country always retaliates with their own tariffs and you end up with nothing but higher taxes on both sides.

Trade war? LOL I see you got suckered by the media spin just like @BSC911 did.

There was no trade war and Trump never wanted one. All he wanted was for our tariffs on Chinese imports to be in line with their tariffs on our imports.

Why don't YOU want that?

As for why Hiden hasn't rolled back the tarffs yet, its mostly because of the public tongue-lashing that China gave the Hiden administration in their first meeting in Alaska right after he took office.

And I'm betting you have no clue what China was upset about. Maybe you should do some research into that.

 

[CFAGator]

Trade war? LOL I see you got suckered by the media spin just like @BSC911 did.

There was no trade war and Trump never wanted one. All he wanted was for our tariffs on Chinese imports to be in line with their tariffs on our imports.

Why don't YOU want that?

As for why Hiden hasn't rolled back the tarffs yet, its mostly because of the public tongue-lashing that China gave the Hiden administration in their first meeting in Alaska right after he took office.

And I'm betting you have no clue what China was upset about. Maybe you should do some research into that.

That's not what happened. Trump didn't put tariffs on Chinese goods and just even things up and that was the end of it. As expected by everyone except Trump due to his terrible advisors Navarro and Kudlow, China just responded with additional tariffs on our goods. Nothing was accomplished except additional corporate taxes on both sides.

 

[GhostOfMatchesMalone]

That's not what happened. Trump didn't put tariffs on Chinese goods and just even things up and that was the end of it.

I didn't say that's what happened, my goodness you rush to defense of the commies almost as quickly as you do the dems LOL

Again, China was charging roughly DOUBLE the tariffs on US imports as we did on Chinese imports. I asked why that didn't bother you and you ignored.

That's what led to the massive trade imbalance that we have had for years with China. It's a win-win for China and lose-lose for America. That's why the dems and Chinese love it, and why Trump hated it.

Of COURSE China was going to retaliate. Because they are used to American Presidents bending over for them, and they assumed Trump would do the same.

He didn't. China threatened massive tariff increases, then they actually did smaller ones. Trump countered right back. China backed off.

Then.....wonder of wonders....guess what happened just as Trump was winning the 'trade war' with China?

Covid. What a godsend to the Chinese and the dems!!!!! Suddenly America had to forfeit the trade war to focus on a new flu strain.

Did you ever figure out why the China chewed out Blinken and the US reps in Alaska? I promise you it's a VERY interesting story.

Spoiler alert: Being a dem, you won't like what you find out.

 

[Uniformed_ReRe]

I know I am no economist. But is it possible that some of the recent inflation is due to imposing higher tariffs on the country that produces most of the stuff we buy?

 

[CFAGator]

I didn't say that's what happened, my goodness you rush to defense of the commies almost as quickly as you do the dems LOL

Again, China was charging roughly DOUBLE the tariffs on US imports as we did on Chinese imports. I asked why that didn't bother you and you ignored.

That's what led to the massive trade imbalance that we have had for years with China. It's a win-win for China and lose-lose for America. That's why the dems and Chinese love it, and why Trump hated it.

Of COURSE China was going to retaliate. Because they are used to American Presidents bending over for them, and they assumed Trump would do the same.

He didn't. China threatened massive tariff increases, then they actually did smaller ones. Trump countered right back. China backed off.

Then.....wonder of wonders....guess what happened just as Trump was winning the 'trade war' with China?

Covid. What a godsend to the Chinese and the dems!!!!! Suddenly America had to forfeit the trade war to focus on a new flu strain.

Did you ever figure out why the China chewed out Blinken and the US reps in Alaska? I promise you it's a VERY interesting story.

Spoiler alert: Being a dem, you won't like what you find out.

Wow, whole lot of crazy going on there. I'll just ignore the conspiracy theory that China released Covid because Trump was winning the trade war, and focus on the actual trade war results.

Sure, China agreed to buy $200B of additional products from us over 2020 and 2021, great news! Even though everyone knew the day it was agreed that China would never live up to the agreement, which they haven't, under both Trump and Biden. Also, the purchases were only for two years, and nothing after that.

So we get some unknown small amount of purchases, and the resulting tariffs still in place after the agreement are about 21% on US products to China and 19% on China products to the US.

Don't get me wrong, it's nice that the gap between eachother's tariffs is about 2% now when it was about 5% before, but at what cost? The tariffs before the trade war were about 3% and 8%.

So now we have an enormous amount of tariffs (taxes) for trade between the countries. The trade war accomplished almost nothing but more taxes and some campaign soundbites for Trump.

The current Republican party is unrecognizable from the former party of free trade and small government.

 

[BSC911]

Wow, whole lot of crazy going on there. I'll just ignore the conspiracy theory that China released Covid because Trump was winning the trade war, and focus on the actual trade war results.

Sure, China agreed to buy $200B of additional products from us over 2020 and 2021, great news! Even though everyone knew the day it was agreed that China would never live up to the agreement, which they haven't, under both Trump and Biden. Also, the purchases were only for two years, and nothing after that.

So we get some unknown small amount of purchases, and the resulting tariffs still in place after the agreement are about 21% on US products to China and 19% on China products to the US.

Don't get me wrong, it's nice that the gap between eachother's tariffs is about 2% now when it was about 5% before, but at what cost? The tariffs before the trade war were about 3% and 8%.

So now we have an enormous amount of tariffs (taxes) for trade between the countries. The trade war accomplished almost nothing but more taxes and some campaign soundbites for Trump.

The current Republican party is unrecognizable from the former party of free trade and small government.

It’s sad that they’ve changed from the party of economic conservatism to big spending, anti free trade, populists. Reagan is rolling over in his grave.

 

[GhostOfMatchesMalone]

I know I am no economist. But is it possible that some of the recent inflation is due to imposing higher tariffs on the country that produces most of the stuff we buy?

Absolutely. This is obviously all Trump's fault.

 

[GhostOfMatchesMalone]

Wow, whole lot of crazy going on there. I'll just ignore the conspiracy theory that China released Covid because Trump was winning the trade war, and focus on the actual trade war results.

Of course! Because everything about covid.....its progression, its media coverage, government crackdowns on cheap and effective treatments and forcing deadly shots on citizens, turning off the economy for the better part of a year to fight a virus with a mortality rate on par with the seasonal flu.....because all THAT has been tots organic! LOL

Wow, whole lot of crazy going on there. I'll just ignore the conspiracy theory that China released Covid because Trump was winning the trade war, and focus on the actual trade war results.

Sure, China agreed to buy $200B of additional products from us over 2020 and 2021, great news! Even though everyone knew the day it was agreed that China would never live up to the agreement, which they haven't, under both Trump and Biden. Also, the purchases were only for two years, and nothing after that.

So we get some unknown small amount of purchases, and the resulting tariffs still in place after the agreement are about 21% on US products to China and 19% on China products to the US.

Don't get me wrong, it's nice that the gap between eachother's tariffs is about 2% now when it was about 5% before, but at what cost? The tariffs before the trade war were about 3% and 8%.

Ah so you liked it better when China's tariffs on US imports were over double what we charged the Chinese. You liked it when US companies had to move to China (taking American jobs with them) to avoid those tariffs.

I bet Trump negotiating a new NAFTA deal that evened out the dem-created trade discrepancy with Mexico and Canada burned your ass even more, amirite? LOL

The current Republican party is unrecognizable from the former party of free trade and small government.

So you think the republican party has moved away from supporting free markets and small government, so you went to the party that favors heavily regulated markets, and total governmental control?

Of course, that makes complete sense! LOL

Cue the 'I'm not a dem, I'm an independent!' line. I swear we have the dumbest trolls on the internet...

PS: Ever figure out what China chewed Blinkin's ass out about in Alaska? Of course not, you didn't even check. @fatman76 @BillCutting4585 did we discuss this before? It's a fascinating turn of events.