Atlanta Fed GDP now estimate for Q2 has us possibly entering an official recession...

[Gator Fever]

GDPNow

Provides a

www.atlantafed.org

Latest estimate: 0.0 percent — June 15, 2022​

The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the second quarter of 2022 is 0.0 percent on June 15, down from 0.9 percent on June 8. After recent releases from the US Bureau of Labor Statistics, the US Census Bureau, and the US Department of the Treasury's Bureau of the Fiscal Service, the nowcasts of second-quarter real personal consumption expenditures growth, second-quarter real gross private domestic investment growth, and second-quarter real government spending growth decreased from 3.7 percent to 2.6 percent, -8.5 percent to -9.2 percent, and 1.3 percent to 0.9 percent, respectively.
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Usually this thing is pretty close with its final estimate but it was way off in its final Q1 estimate showing growth of .4% while the last updated Q1 reading was - 1.5%

 

[NavigatorII]

GDPNow

Provides a

www.atlantafed.org

Latest estimate: 0.0 percent — June 15, 2022​

The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the second quarter of 2022 is 0.0 percent on June 15, down from 0.9 percent on June 8. After recent releases from the US Bureau of Labor Statistics, the US Census Bureau, and the US Department of the Treasury's Bureau of the Fiscal Service, the nowcasts of second-quarter real personal consumption expenditures growth, second-quarter real gross private domestic investment growth, and second-quarter real government spending growth decreased from 3.7 percent to 2.6 percent, -8.5 percent to -9.2 percent, and 1.3 percent to 0.9 percent, respectively.
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Usually this thing is pretty close with its final estimate but it was way off in its final Q1 estimate showing growth of .4% while the last updated Q1 reading was - 1.5%

 

[Gator Fever]

I wonder how bad things will get the next couple of years. The one thing we will have now that we didn't have for that 08 one is really high prices for food etc. Even if gas comes down some I doubt the prices for food and many other things move down. Real estate should have a pretty big correction especially in places like Florida. Maybe not 08 level corrections but people that recently bought homes won't be happy for the next few years. Even with so many people (especially males) out of the official numbers the layoffs will start taking off I am sure raising that joke official unemployment number.

My guess is things will remain pretty bad until the 2024 election. A lot of mess that should have been dealt with during the 08 recession wasn't but I doubt the fed has any effective bullets to delay the reckoning much this time.

 

[Gator Fever]

.3% increase today. Whether it's positive or negative will probably come down to adjustments with things like inventory.