After Tenn - Predicting our Final W-L Record

Jeff from Jax

Rowdy Reptile
Dec 2, 2004
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According to some CFB "experts" we had the 2nd toughest September schedule.
In those 4 games we went 2-2.

Don't think anyone on this board expected us to go 4-0 or 0-4.
But no one on this board accurately predicted which games we would win & lose.

I see us at 6-4 with 2 toss up games - LSU & FSU.
I think we win one of them to go 7-5

Current records in parenthesis
Eastern Washington - BHG - (1-2) - W

Missouri
- BHG - (2-2) W - next game UGA@home

LSU - BHG - (3-1) - Toss Up - debacle vs FSU, won 3 in a row, next games - @Auburn, Tenn@home, then @gators

UGA - in Jax - (4-0) - L

TAMU -
College Station - (3-1) - L - devastating loss to Appy State but just beat Arkansas. next games - @Miss State, @Alabama,@S Carolina,Ole Miss @College Station, Gators @College Station

South Carolina - BHG - (2-2) -W

Vandy - Nashville - (3-2) - W

FSU - Tallahassee - (4-0) - Toss Up


Would love to play Miami (2-2 who just lost to Middle Tenn State) in the Gator Bowl to end our season.
 
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Countygator1

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Dawgs get us but all the rest are winnable. AM is not as strong as once thought, LSU and FSU have yet to play any ranked teams..FSU could easily be 2-2 against a much softer schedule...Will be fun to see how the season plays out. We are a young team...
 
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Nicktheslick

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Jun 5, 2019
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Offense is trending up hopefully the defense has hit the bottom and can rebound. Is so 8-4
 

Jeff from Jax

Rowdy Reptile
Dec 2, 2004
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We won't see a better offense the rest of the year...
Country,

Hope you are right; our defense on its heels/back the whole game.

Big reason was the play of Bru McCoy - he didn't play for UT last year - 2019 5* WR from Palos Verdes Estates, CA - multiple transfers & had to sit out for a year.

but he exploded in today's game; offensive player knows where he is going & defensive player has to guess;

we couldn't cover him

McCoy
YTD- 8 REC - 109 yds - 1 TD - 13.6 YPC
UF Game - 5 REC - 102 yds - 1 TD - 20.4 YPC
 

Gator Fever

Bull Gator
Feb 13, 2008
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Country,

Hope you are right; our defense on its heels/back the whole game.

Big reason was the play of Bru McCoy - he didn't play for UT last year - 2019 5* WR from Palos Verdes Estates, CA - multiple transfers & had to sit out for a year.

but he exploded in today's game; offensive player knows where he is going & defensive player has to guess;

we couldn't cover him

McCoy
YTD- 8 REC - 109 yds - 1 TD - 13.6 YPC
UF Game - 5 REC - 102 yds - 1 TD - 20.4 YPC

I get the feeling we will watch the tape and say why in the heck didn't we just run man coverage after all the screw ups we see where a WR wasn't picked up like he was supposed to be.
 

BayouGator1995

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Sep 27, 2015
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I'm beginning to believe 6-6 is a reality. I will say 8-4 just to be on the positive side of things. Defense is a YUGE liability.
 

Jeff from Jax

Rowdy Reptile
Dec 2, 2004
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A Note about our September Schedule

Couple different metrics out there for strength of schedule, but with the new AP Poll out the Gators have played a top 15 opponent in three of their four games.

There are a few different sites that try and use metrics to rank teams and give a strength of schedule.
This author used the website Power Rankings Guru which has Florida football tabbed as having the second hardest schedule in the country behind Colorado.
UF#2 - 39.4; FSU #44 - 72.3

Power Ranking Guru Strength of Schedule Played shows the current year average ranking for each opponent that a given team has faced to date.
A lower numerical value for opponents means they are ranked higher-#1 vs #25; etc.
http://powerrankingsguru.com/college-football/strength-of-schedule.php

How NCAA Computes Basketball SOS to get into the "Big Dance"
https://www.ncaa.com/news/basketbal...laining-college-basketballs-strength-schedule


At its core, strength of schedule measures the difficulty of a team’s schedule, based on the win percentage of that team’s current year opponents.
SI uses Win % - BUT based on last year's opponents. Not sure I agree with it.

20. Florida State: 89-61, (59.3%)
35. Florida: 87-68, (56.1%)

https://www.si.com/fannation/colleg...ollege-football-schedule-rankings-2022-season

Our neighbors to the west (SOW as Urban called them) that are feeling special about their 4-0 start are ranked 44th by Power Ranking Guru in strength of schedule.

As we know, Florida opened the season against 7th ranked Utah. The Utes haven’t lost since and are still ranked (AP#12).

Both Kentucky (AP#7) and Tennessee (AP#8) find themselves inside the top 10.
Drop all three 1 spot in the Coaches' Poll & a bit more in the CBS poll which IMO is a bit more accurate.
https://www.cbssports.com/college-football/rankings/

Gators are 2-2 & unranked; they could easily be 4-0; & the Gators are also only two plays away from being 0-4.

And yes the Gators have to get back to a place where wins over Kentucky and Tennessee are automatic and not coin flips.

But it showcases that Florida football has a decent enough of a starting base for Billy Napier to build from and one would expect it’s only going to get better from here.

Sadly, When we tell a recruit there is early playing time available; they can watch a game & know we're serious !

https://hailfloridahail.com/2022/09/25/florida-football-ap-poll/
 
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Countygator1

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Dec 1, 2017
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Again, very difficult schedule for a first year coach trying to rebuild a program. Good news is we have been right there in every game....will be a lot more down to the wire games this year.
 

Gator Fever

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Feb 13, 2008
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If this hurricane ends up close enough to Gainesville to cancel the game since there is no way to make it up with the schedules we may be fighting just to get 6 wins.
 

Gator Fever

Bull Gator
Feb 13, 2008
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Looking like Gainesville might be out of the path now. It seems to be tracking a little east of where they had it. If I had to guess now it lands somewhere from around Punta Gorda to Sarasota area and exits around Titusville.