Abortion, the Woman's Vote and the 2022 Election

grandhavendiddy

Gator Great
Gold Member
Feb 3, 2007
4,237
2,914
113
Regardless of what you feel about Abortion, and it is very clear that people on the board have a clear, moral perspective on it (which is good), it is not a compelling issue for the right. You see it in the polling, the ballot initiatives (Kansas) and then how candidates are reacting to it (read: Hershel W. and other examples below).

Conversely, it is almost the only thing that Democrats run on.

Compare that to Immigration, Debt, Inflation, Crime, Covid mandates, Afghanistan, CRT, etc. where the issues are SO clear and compelling. Conservatives/Republicans are hammering home the issue - mercilessly.

Further complicating things, as noted below, is that now people want a federal ban on abortion. So what is it? A "states rights" issue or should be a federal ban? They also hem and haw when pressed about the contradiction between vaccine mandates and being pro-life.

And the candidates who are in anything other than safe R districts? They are dodging or downplaying the issue - just as what happened in 2016-2017 on the ACA repeal.

Lisa hits this on the head around P - if just 3% of the woman's voted for Trump, he pulls the state. Trump - to his credit, knew this too:


(His campaign speech - in PA)

What republicans should be doing, if they really want to spend time here versus the other core issues above, is focusing on late trimester abortions and limiting that for the health of the mother. The baby can (almost always successfully) live outside the womb. Regardless of your religious or moral beliefs, that is a clear line. The woman has been pregnant for a long time - if a decision is to be made, ample time was in place to make it.

Finally, if Trump had his druthers, I am 90%+ sure, he would get government out of it. I believe he was pro-choice up through 2010 and at least 1999 when he was 53.

Should be interesting to see how this plays out in the polls this fall.


Author Headshot By Lisa Lerer
National Political Correspondent
Good morning. Republicans spent decades trying to end Roe, but the reality of banning abortion has become a burden on the party.​
fXkEadC9MRlx21bLu-n5WAHuRf8yKXex4kiyJtbrvbR_N1StO-mkMPzjIo-1R8QXHfONwBQr2ltYyN_bKKccfL5tq1uFauQ-m7cDMrKyhrmX8MIVf3GUJu0qv0Orvw197wzZjc7pi2IeY9yCK8D8scl__IYpIroDj9AmRruh3CMev4NR332K7zi7TGPDch0=s0-d-e1-ft
Anti-abortion campaigners outside the Supreme Court in June.Shuran Huang for The New York Times​

A new third rail​

For years, abortion was a straightforward rallying cry for Republicans, a way to identify with the cultural politics of their core supporters in one word: pro-life.​
But the Supreme Court’s decision to overturn Roe v. Wade plunged the party into a complicated reproductive reality, as I reported in this story that published this morning. The decision ended federal abortion rights, essentially forcing each state to legislate its own rules. After decades of fighting for that very outcome, when it finally happened, Republicans had no clear national message or unified policy.​
Almost immediately, Republican lawmakers were thrust into messy and emotional debates over some difficult issues: child rape, life-threatening medical complications from pregnancies and the devastating diagnoses of fetuses with rare and fatal conditions. As they debated, Republicans saw a once-easy way to energize their supporters transformed into a new third rail. And Democrats saw their fortunes rise in the midterms.​
Will that be enough for Democrats to keep control of Congress? Probably not. But the issue could be a deciding factor in some close races, particularly governors’ contests where the winners may determine abortion rights in their states.​

One question, many answers​

What do Republicans believe about abortion? It all depends on whom you ask. Abortion is one of the starkest areas of disagreement within the party right now.​
In Nevada, Joe Lombardo, the sheriff of the Las Vegas area who is running for governor, says he wouldn’t change state law, which currently allows abortion up to 24 weeks of a pregnancy — one of the latest limits in the country.​
jUdcj0qF9emJeyIDGyqK59owvpoyEMRi6ni3DaupzW3wlmu3NEuIjOJzytpsUR3nncYO1zThT_njd0FGmeUoGaO1nkIja5ACcOuQQ8G--U6jTR9k5sTLmLoVM6OevGLpWwTgsUjmEXELXBvORsI1cQEUyXHSgM1qqb1fCN92H1Cc=s0-d-e1-ft
Lindsey Graham proposed a 15-week federal abortion ban last month.Haiyun Jiang/The New York Times​
In the Senate, Lindsey Graham of South Carolina is pushing for a ban after 15 weeks of pregnancy, with exceptions for rape, incest and life of the mother. (Senator Mitch McConnell, the Republican majority leader, does not agree, and neither do a number of Republican colleagues.)​
In Michigan, Tudor Dixon, the Republican nominee for governor, would rather talk about something else, saying abortion “shouldn’t be an issue.”​
And in Maine, Paul LePage, a former governor and the Republican candidate for that office, seemed to dodge the question entirely. “I don’t know what you mean by 15 weeks or 28 weeks because I don’t know,” LePage said in a debate last week. “I’m not sure I understand the question.”​

How voters feel​

The big political problem with the strictest Republican position — total or near-total bans on abortion like those enacted in at least 13 states — is that it’s simply unpopular.​
Public opinion on abortion is notoriously hard to measure because so much of how voters view the issue depends on how surveys frame their questions. But there are a few clear data points. A majority of voters disagree with the Supreme Court’s decision to overturn Roe, saying they support a federal right to an abortion. Similarly, in a recent New York Times/Siena College poll, 62 percent of Americans said they favored abortion access in either all or most circumstances. At the same time, most voters also support some restrictions starting as women enter the second trimester of pregnancy.​
Part of what has made these questions particularly salient in the 2022 midterms is how they are embedding in the lives of female voters. From the time they get their first period to menopause, most women have an inescapable monthly clock that they discuss mostly with other women. Many of those discussions revolve around pregnancy, which for most of human history was commonly a high-risk, if not fatal, condition.​
The intimacy of the issue raises its political intensity for 50.5 percent of the population — and the even bigger percentage of women who make up the typical midterm electorate. Small changes in this group can cause big political outcomes. As Elaine Kamarck at the Brookings Institution points out, a shift of less than 3 percent of the women’s votes in Pennsylvania in 2020 could have flipped the state to Donald Trump.​

November and beyond​

Whatever happens in the midterms, Republicans are not escaping this issue. Activists in both political parties are bracing for a decades-long fight over the future of abortion rights.​
If Republicans win control of Congress, they will face pressure to embrace national abortion bans from social conservatives who see the court’s decision as the beginning of restrictions. That position, of course, contradicts nearly a half-century of Republican Party ideology arguing for abortion laws to return to the states.​
And then there’s the matter of the 2024 presidential primary. It’s easy to imagine a debate stage where Republican candidates are pressed for details about their positions on issues like exceptions for rape, life-threatening ectopic pregnancies and when, exactly, a fetus should be considered a person. We’re already seeing those kinds of questions being asked in midterm debates for Senate and governor.​
In the post-Roe world, just being “pro-life” doesn’t quite cut it for Republican politicians.​
 

BCSpell

Gator Great
Gold Member
Dec 28, 2004
3,893
4,984
113
Bethesda, Maryland
"Conversely, it is almost the only thing that Democrats run on."

The DEMS seem to actually beleive that a majority of the Country wants on demand abortions, up to the minute of birth. The case that ended RvW was brought about because Dems weren't happy with only 15 weeks. They wanted no restrictions. I happen to beleive they are wrong.
Besides, other than Orange man bad, what else do they have to run on? They can't run on: taking guns away or pushing CRT or transgenderism, destorying women, the economy, etc.
 
Oct 1, 2012
30,144
39,155
113
Regardless of what you feel about Abortion, and it is very clear that people on the board have a clear, moral perspective on it (which is good), it is not a compelling issue for the right. You see it in the polling, the ballot initiatives (Kansas) and then how candidates are reacting to it (read: Hershel W. and other examples below).

You left out a group: The actual voters.

Here's what's interesting: When we discuss how the 2020 election was stolen from Trump, you claim it wasn't stolen. You claim all we have to do is look at the voting behavior of moderates and college-educated women.

So why aren't you pointing us toward the behavior of moderates and college-educated women when it comes to Roe v Wade and Casey v PP being overturned? Where were the nationwide protests from moderates and college-educated women over these decisions being overturned?

There were none. The only reaction was CELEBRATION for these unconstitutional decisions being overturned. And keep in mind, when these decisions were overturned, Justice Thomas wrote that the clause that propped both up was unfounded and since the Oberfell case that paved the way for legalizing gay marriage was propped up by that same clause, it would be overturned next.

So the SC took away abortion rights from the left, and signaled that gay marriage was next. These are two of the biggest issues to the party platform.

If these issues had anywhere close to the mainstream appeal that you believe, there should have been rioting in the streets.

There was nothing. That tells us all we need to know about how much of a winning issue this is for the right.

The left has lost the moderates when it comes to their perverse morality.
 
Oct 1, 2012
30,144
39,155
113
"Conversely, it is almost the only thing that Democrats run on."

The DEMS seem to actually beleive that a majority of the Country wants on demand abortions, up to the minute of birth. The case that ended RvW was brought about because Dems weren't happy with only 15 weeks. They wanted no restrictions. I happen to beleive they are wrong.
Besides, other than Orange man bad, what else do they have to run on? They can't run on: taking guns away or pushing CRT or transgenderism, destorying women, the economy, etc.
Tying in with the above, notice how the left is increasingly running on fringe issues. Like abortions on demand, gay marriage, confiscating guns. Forcing everyone to buy EVs, forcing everyone to get unapproved 'vaccines'.

That tells you they have lost the moderates. They are appealing to the only people left that support them: The crazies. They can't adopt centrist positions, because the centrists no longer support them.

The issues they support signal who their support base is now. Their values are no longer mainstream, and neither is their support.
 

Capt Ron 1

Bull Gator
Gold Member
Nov 29, 2021
6,858
10,916
113
61
Fort Walton Bch, Fl
I was just about to post my own thread on something very similar...however let me have a rip at it right here.

First, abortion WILL NOT be a deciding factor in THIS, or any election coming down the rod. This is ALL that the left can talk about, because EVERYTHING that they have changed, has HURT our Country. E V E R Y T H I N G.


So I could not disagree (respectfully) with your post any more than I do. Now, for what I was going to post about what Republican's SHOULD be talking about, and lets be VERY honest here....they are HORRIBLE about communicating to their voters, even though there message is much better than the lefts(which does not mean in any way that their message is clear and concise)


What I think should be ALL OVER the airways, is saving our Republic. I love to watch a bit of Fox and Friends in the morning. Many times they have one of their hosts visiting small breakfast places to ask voters what is the most important thing to them in the upcoming election. And they all have good answers...economy, inflation, open borders, crime...the standard stuff that FJB RUINED after taking office.

But these is something that is happening, that if it does not change...we will LOSE this Country. We HAVE to make sure our Constitution is followed WITHOUT FAIL. Yes, the border is a HUGE problem..but we already have immigration laws that are being ignored. When libs disagree with a law...they just refuse to follow it...and WE LET THEM GET AWAY with it. We LET them get away with stealing a f'ing Presidential election. they stole it by NOT FOLLOWING existing laws (mostly). How about inflation? Not that this is against the Constitution...but we LET THEM pass a bill called the inflation reduction act...and the bill has ZERO to do with reducing inflation.

We let them get away with lying, cheating and stealing, while we have the GREATEST governing system the world has ever known. But we DO NOT follow it...we let them get away with not following it. So if you asked me "What is THE SINGLE MOST IMPORTANT issue in this upcoming election(as well as EVERY election) it would be that we MAKE BOTH SIDES ALWAYS follow the laws of our land. We CANNOT let the Nations premier law enforcement agency be used to keep democrats in power...but we do. We HAVE to follow the Constitution of the United States of America. THAT is THE most important thing.
 

goldmom

Ring of Honor
Mar 29, 2002
51,414
4,929
113
I also worry about Pennsylvania voters who might have the GALL to send a mentally impaired leftist loon like John Fetterman to the Senate, where just 100 of our fellow citizens get to make decisions for 330 million of us.
Besides literally living with his rich parents for most of his life and worshipping Bernie Bleeping Sanders he has been permanently impaired as a result of stroke he suffered earlier this year. PA voters should be embarrassed that this is one of their best and brightest their imposing on the rest of us.
 

grandhavendiddy

Gator Great
Gold Member
Feb 3, 2007
4,237
2,914
113
I also worry about Pennsylvania voters who might have the GALL to send a mentally impaired leftist loon like John Fetterman to the Senate, where just 100 of our fellow citizens get to make decisions for 330 million of us.
Besides literally living with his rich parents for most of his life and worshipping Bernie Bleeping Sanders he has been permanently impaired as a result of stroke he suffered earlier this year. PA voters should be embarrassed that this is one of their best and brightest their imposing on the rest of us.
Many are saying the same. You may ask, "how could this be?"

So what happens is that a suburban woman in PA looks at issues and goes (right, wrong or otherwise):

1. Inflation - function of ukraine war, fetterman cannot impact, but yes, somewhat of a problem
2. Border - problem for Texas, not me
3. Crime - somewhat of a problem. Will not go down to Walnut street to shop. Stay in burbs.
4. CRT - somewhat of a problem. Not in my suburban schools

and then....

5. Abortion - it's an assault on woman's rights and a symbol that up until 1919, women were treated like second class citizens.

So, this segment, fixate on Abortion and rationalize away the rest. In a toss-up state like PA, a 3-5% shift makes all the difference.

So, again, how important is it that the government goes in (which this board has a broad, general distrust of), and prevent women, lock up doctors, in order to prevent an unknown woman from doing an abortion versus ALL of the other issues above?

Further:

In a divided senate, 1 state and 1 seat means Bernie is running the budget committee versus a republican.

1 seat means that Hawley, Cruz and Paul can hold Fauci to account.

Again, how important is this against the broader backdrop?

That is the question.
 

Capt Ron 1

Bull Gator
Gold Member
Nov 29, 2021
6,858
10,916
113
61
Fort Walton Bch, Fl
the supposed right to kill an unborn child is way down the list of voter concerns

economy, illegal immigration and crime are tops
It is with me. We have WAY, WAY, WAY more important things facing us today. The left cannot discuss ANY of those things...because they were GREAT when FJB took office...now they are not
 
Oct 1, 2012
30,144
39,155
113
the supposed right to kill an unborn child is way down the list of voter concerns

economy, illegal immigration and crime are tops
As @grandhavendiddy admitted, he only cares about abortion cause he likes having unprotected sex with his wife and wants the abortion option available to him if his 'urges' get the better of him in the act.
 

BCSpell

Gator Great
Gold Member
Dec 28, 2004
3,893
4,984
113
Bethesda, Maryland
Many are saying the same. You may ask, "how could this be?"

So what happens is that a suburban woman in PA looks at issues and goes (right, wrong or otherwise):

1. Inflation - function of ukraine war, fetterman cannot impact, but yes, somewhat of a problem
2. Border - problem for Texas, not me
3. Crime - somewhat of a problem. Will not go down to Walnut street to shop. Stay in burbs.
4. CRT - somewhat of a problem. Not in my suburban schools

and then....

5. Abortion - it's an assault on woman's rights and a symbol that up until 1919, women were treated like second class citizens.

So, this segment, fixate on Abortion and rationalize away the rest. In a toss-up state like PA, a 3-5% shift makes all the difference.

So, again, how important is it that the government goes in (which this board has a broad, general distrust of), and prevent women, lock up doctors, in order to prevent an unknown woman from doing an abortion versus ALL of the other issues above?

Further:

In a divided senate, 1 state and 1 seat means Bernie is running the budget committee versus a republican.

1 seat means that Hawley, Cruz and Paul can hold Fauci to account.

Again, how important is this against the broader backdrop?

That is the question.
Maybe some of the suburban woman in PA would view things the way you laid out, BUT I doubt its a majority. If they are paying attention, they know that Biden has been shipping illegals all over the country, including PA, and they also know that school boards and superintendants across the country are pushing CRT and it's more than likely happening and or coming to PA, especially if Dems are in control. They would also be smart enough to know that crime does not JUST STAY in the big cities. And I am sure they know all about inflation and they would know that the more Repubs voted in the better chance of someone doing something about it.
 

Dr. Curmudgeon

Bull Gator
Oct 17, 2018
5,629
9,552
113
"Conversely, it is almost the only thing that Democrats run on."

The DEMS seem to actually beleive that a majority of the Country wants on demand abortions, up to the minute of birth. The case that ended RvW was brought about because Dems weren't happy with only 15 weeks. They wanted no restrictions. I happen to beleive they are wrong.
Besides, other than Orange man bad, what else do they have to run on? They can't run on: taking guns away or pushing CRT or transgenderism, destorying women, the economy, etc.
Right, they wanted to kill the babies after birth. I can't believe these bloodlust people really are this evil, but here we are.
 

Dr. Curmudgeon

Bull Gator
Oct 17, 2018
5,629
9,552
113
It is with me. We have WAY, WAY, WAY more important things facing us today. The left cannot discuss ANY of those things...because they were GREAT when FJB took office...now they are not
I can't say that butchering babies isn't significant. I get your meaning that many value economy and rights protected under the constitution above everything, but if we are under God we might want to please him first.
 
  • Like
Reactions: nail1988

grandhavendiddy

Gator Great
Gold Member
Feb 3, 2007
4,237
2,914
113
Maybe some of the suburban woman in PA would view things the way you laid out, BUT I doubt its a majority. If they are paying attention, they know that Biden has been shipping illegals all over the country, including PA, and they also know that school boards and superintendants across the country are pushing CRT and it's more than likely happening and or coming to PA, especially if Dems are in control. They would also be smart enough to know that crime does not JUST STAY in the big cities. And I am sure they know all about inflation and they would know that the more Repubs voted in the better chance of someone doing something about it.
It's a mix, to be sure.

This is true for suburban, upper middle class+, college educated who are only mildly affiliated with religion. (e.g. Episcopalian who goes to church every Christmas and Easter).

Take my sister, I remind her of all of the above, and abortion becomes the primary piece, even if she has never had an abortion, never had a family member perform one, and is approaching menopause in 5 years. As the Democrats know, it galvanizes women to vote, and vote blue.
 
  • Like
Reactions: BCSpell

Capt Ron 1

Bull Gator
Gold Member
Nov 29, 2021
6,858
10,916
113
61
Fort Walton Bch, Fl
I can't say that butchering babies isn't significant. I get your meaning that many value economy and rights protected under the constitution above everything, but if we are under God we might want to please him first.
I personally cannot either by ANY means. It is murder to me, plain and simple. Also personally agree with God first. I seperate them politically, not personally.
 

fatman76

Bull Gator
Jun 15, 2007
6,529
12,873
113
Regardless of what you feel about Abortion, and it is very clear that people on the board have a clear, moral perspective on it (which is good), it is not a compelling issue for the right. You see it in the polling, the ballot initiatives (Kansas) and then how candidates are reacting to it (read: Hershel W. and other examples below).

Conversely, it is almost the only thing that Democrats run on.

Compare that to Immigration, Debt, Inflation, Crime, Covid mandates, Afghanistan, CRT, etc. where the issues are SO clear and compelling. Conservatives/Republicans are hammering home the issue - mercilessly.

Further complicating things, as noted below, is that now people want a federal ban on abortion. So what is it? A "states rights" issue or should be a federal ban? They also hem and haw when pressed about the contradiction between vaccine mandates and being pro-life.

And the candidates who are in anything other than safe R districts? They are dodging or downplaying the issue - just as what happened in 2016-2017 on the ACA repeal.

Lisa hits this on the head around P - if just 3% of the woman's voted for Trump, he pulls the state. Trump - to his credit, knew this too:



(His campaign speech - in PA)

What republicans should be doing, if they really want to spend time here versus the other core issues above, is focusing on late trimester abortions and limiting that for the health of the mother. The baby can (almost always successfully) live outside the womb. Regardless of your religious or moral beliefs, that is a clear line. The woman has been pregnant for a long time - if a decision is to be made, ample time was in place to make it.

Finally, if Trump had his druthers, I am 90%+ sure, he would get government out of it. I believe he was pro-choice up through 2010 and at least 1999 when he was 53.

Should be interesting to see how this plays out in the polls this fall.


Author Headshot By Lisa Lerer
National Political Correspondent
Good morning. Republicans spent decades trying to end Roe, but the reality of banning abortion has become a burden on the party.​
fXkEadC9MRlx21bLu-n5WAHuRf8yKXex4kiyJtbrvbR_N1StO-mkMPzjIo-1R8QXHfONwBQr2ltYyN_bKKccfL5tq1uFauQ-m7cDMrKyhrmX8MIVf3GUJu0qv0Orvw197wzZjc7pi2IeY9yCK8D8scl__IYpIroDj9AmRruh3CMev4NR332K7zi7TGPDch0=s0-d-e1-ft
Anti-abortion campaigners outside the Supreme Court in June.Shuran Huang for The New York Times​

A new third rail​

For years, abortion was a straightforward rallying cry for Republicans, a way to identify with the cultural politics of their core supporters in one word: pro-life.​
But the Supreme Court’s decision to overturn Roe v. Wade plunged the party into a complicated reproductive reality, as I reported in this story that published this morning. The decision ended federal abortion rights, essentially forcing each state to legislate its own rules. After decades of fighting for that very outcome, when it finally happened, Republicans had no clear national message or unified policy.​
Almost immediately, Republican lawmakers were thrust into messy and emotional debates over some difficult issues: child rape, life-threatening medical complications from pregnancies and the devastating diagnoses of fetuses with rare and fatal conditions. As they debated, Republicans saw a once-easy way to energize their supporters transformed into a new third rail. And Democrats saw their fortunes rise in the midterms.​
Will that be enough for Democrats to keep control of Congress? Probably not. But the issue could be a deciding factor in some close races, particularly governors’ contests where the winners may determine abortion rights in their states.​

One question, many answers​

What do Republicans believe about abortion? It all depends on whom you ask. Abortion is one of the starkest areas of disagreement within the party right now.​
In Nevada, Joe Lombardo, the sheriff of the Las Vegas area who is running for governor, says he wouldn’t change state law, which currently allows abortion up to 24 weeks of a pregnancy — one of the latest limits in the country.​
jUdcj0qF9emJeyIDGyqK59owvpoyEMRi6ni3DaupzW3wlmu3NEuIjOJzytpsUR3nncYO1zThT_njd0FGmeUoGaO1nkIja5ACcOuQQ8G--U6jTR9k5sTLmLoVM6OevGLpWwTgsUjmEXELXBvORsI1cQEUyXHSgM1qqb1fCN92H1Cc=s0-d-e1-ft
Lindsey Graham proposed a 15-week federal abortion ban last month.Haiyun Jiang/The New York Times​
In the Senate, Lindsey Graham of South Carolina is pushing for a ban after 15 weeks of pregnancy, with exceptions for rape, incest and life of the mother. (Senator Mitch McConnell, the Republican majority leader, does not agree, and neither do a number of Republican colleagues.)​
In Michigan, Tudor Dixon, the Republican nominee for governor, would rather talk about something else, saying abortion “shouldn’t be an issue.”​
And in Maine, Paul LePage, a former governor and the Republican candidate for that office, seemed to dodge the question entirely. “I don’t know what you mean by 15 weeks or 28 weeks because I don’t know,” LePage said in a debate last week. “I’m not sure I understand the question.”​

How voters feel​

The big political problem with the strictest Republican position — total or near-total bans on abortion like those enacted in at least 13 states — is that it’s simply unpopular.​
Public opinion on abortion is notoriously hard to measure because so much of how voters view the issue depends on how surveys frame their questions. But there are a few clear data points. A majority of voters disagree with the Supreme Court’s decision to overturn Roe, saying they support a federal right to an abortion. Similarly, in a recent New York Times/Siena College poll, 62 percent of Americans said they favored abortion access in either all or most circumstances. At the same time, most voters also support some restrictions starting as women enter the second trimester of pregnancy.​
Part of what has made these questions particularly salient in the 2022 midterms is how they are embedding in the lives of female voters. From the time they get their first period to menopause, most women have an inescapable monthly clock that they discuss mostly with other women. Many of those discussions revolve around pregnancy, which for most of human history was commonly a high-risk, if not fatal, condition.​
The intimacy of the issue raises its political intensity for 50.5 percent of the population — and the even bigger percentage of women who make up the typical midterm electorate. Small changes in this group can cause big political outcomes. As Elaine Kamarck at the Brookings Institution points out, a shift of less than 3 percent of the women’s votes in Pennsylvania in 2020 could have flipped the state to Donald Trump.​

November and beyond​

Whatever happens in the midterms, Republicans are not escaping this issue. Activists in both political parties are bracing for a decades-long fight over the future of abortion rights.​
If Republicans win control of Congress, they will face pressure to embrace national abortion bans from social conservatives who see the court’s decision as the beginning of restrictions. That position, of course, contradicts nearly a half-century of Republican Party ideology arguing for abortion laws to return to the states.​
And then there’s the matter of the 2024 presidential primary. It’s easy to imagine a debate stage where Republican candidates are pressed for details about their positions on issues like exceptions for rape, life-threatening ectopic pregnancies and when, exactly, a fetus should be considered a person. We’re already seeing those kinds of questions being asked in midterm debates for Senate and governor.​
In the post-Roe world, just being “pro-life” doesn’t quite cut it for Republican politicians.​
Just post links. We can all click.

It’s not the lightning rod many think it is. A vast majority support legislation like Graham’s, but the fringes of the issue (absolute bans vs live birth abortions) have been the loudest but represent a relatively small percentage of how people really feel.

I’m not overly religious and think France nailed it at 12 weeks. I’m against total bans…my little sister (34 YO) is at 26 weeks and just found out her baby girl has a defect called anencephaly. Basically only the brain stem formed, the brain cavity and brain never did. The baby probably lives 24 hours to a week. 100% fatal.

She lives in TX and is now faced with carrying a brain dead organism to full term. To me it’s evil to make her travel to another state to terminate a baby that God (or nature) already terminated.
 
Last edited:

grandhavendiddy

Gator Great
Gold Member
Feb 3, 2007
4,237
2,914
113
Just post links. We can all click.

It’s not the lightning Rod many think it is. A vast majority support legislation like Graham’s, but the fringes of the issue (absolute bans vs love birth abortions) have been the loudest but represent a relatively small percentage of how people really feel.

I’m not overly religious and think France nailed it at 12 weeks. I’m against total bans…my little sister (34 YO) is at 26 weeks and just found out her baby girl has a defect called anencephaly. Basically only the brain stem formed, the brain cavity and brain never did. The baby probably lives 24 hours to a week. 100% fatal.

She lives in TX and is now faced with carrying a brain dead organism to full term. To me it’s evil to make her travel to another state to terminate a baby that God (or nature) already terminated.
Understood. Will do going forward (although there is a paywall, potentially in this case).

What a great post. I think the line is 20-24 weeks, but in your sister's case, I could not agree more.

I also just do not want the government in this. For example, my 24 weeks, would not have captured the situation of your sister (sorry for her loss). Let's say TX had a ban at my 24 weeks.

Now, your sister, her doctor, the hospital system, the payor, etc. have to go through hoops of paperwork, signatures, approvals, etc. and if not all properly followed could the hospital be sued and your sister/doctor get jailed? Is that what we really want the government spending time on? Do we really trust they will get it right?
 
  • Like
Reactions: goldmom

NavigatorII

Bull Gator
Dec 8, 2004
13,625
26,324
113
I'm just going to cut to the chase here. Abortion is a wedge issue between the far left and far right. It's a political football. The issue is that the left wants to be able to snatch babies from the womb on delivery, no questions asked. Most people do not agree with that.

I may be going against the current here but I don't have issues with first trimester abortion, for many reasons. Health reasons for mother, known possible birth defects for the baby, rape, etc. The media tries to pigeon hole all pro life advocates being against women's rights. And that is bullshit, it might be the opinion of 5% of people but not the majority. The real problem is Suburban Karen's eating up the left's big lie. Butchering a baby that is essentially formed at 4 months is flat out murder, unless the mother's life is in danger. The GOP needs to disarm these assholes by taking away the bullshit "women's rights" argument and stop trying to prevent all abortions. Some are medically necessary, and an abortion pregnancy 3 weeks after detection isn't a hill to die on. There are far bigger issues, like the preservation of our our Constitutional Republic.

It's time to stop giving these pieces of shit ammo to lie to women that the GOP wants to control a woman's body. 95% of these fat,tranny looking rejects, I wonder how the hell these cretins got pregnant to begin with. :mad:
 
Last edited:

grandhavendiddy

Gator Great
Gold Member
Feb 3, 2007
4,237
2,914
113
I'm just going to cut to the chase here. Abortion is a wedge issue between the far left and far right. It's a political football. The issue is that the left wants to be able to snatch babies from the womb on delivery, no questions asked. Most people do not agree with that.

I may be going against the current here but I don't have issues with first trimester abortion, for many reasons. Health reasons for mother, known possible birth defects for the baby, rape, etc. The media tries to pigeon hole all pro life advocates being against women's rights. And that is bullshit, it might be the opinion of 5% of people but not the majority. The real problem is Suburban Karen's eating up the left's big lie. Butchering a baby that is essentially formed at 4 months is flat out murder, unless the mother's life is in danger. The GOP needs to disarm these assholes by taking away the bullshit "women's rights" argument and stop trying to prevent all abortions. Some are medically necessary, and an abortion pregnancy 3 weeks after detection isn't a hill to die on. There are far bigger issues, like the preservation of our our Constitutional Republic.

It's time to stop giving these pieces of shit ammo to lie to women that the GOP wants to control a woman's body. 95% of these fat,tranny looking rejects, I wonder how the hell these cretins got pregnant to begin with. :mad:
If the discussion was between 16 weeks (4 months) and 24 weeks (6 months), then you have a very reasonable discussion and strip the left of the one issue.
 

nothergator

Rowdy Reptile
Gold Member
Feb 4, 2004
1,475
1,268
113
I'm just going to cut to the chase here. Abortion is a wedge issue between the far left and far right. It's a political football. The issue is that the left wants to be able to snatch babies from the womb on delivery, no questions asked. Most people do not agree with that.

I may be going against the current here but I don't have issues with first trimester abortion, for many reasons. Health reasons for mother, known possible birth defects for the baby, rape, etc. The media tries to pigeon hole all pro life advocates being against women's rights. And that is bullshit, it might be the opinion of 5% of people but not the majority. The real problem is Suburban Karen's eating up the left's big lie. Butchering a baby that is essentially formed at 4 months is flat out murder, unless the mother's life is in danger. The GOP needs to disarm these assholes by taking away the bullshit "women's rights" argument and stop trying to prevent all abortions. Some are medically necessary, and an abortion pregnancy 3 weeks after detection isn't a hill to die on. There are far bigger issues, like the preservation of our our Constitutional Republic.

It's time to stop giving these pieces of shit ammo to lie to women that the GOP wants to control a woman's body. 95% of these fat,tranny looking rejects, I wonder how the hell these cretins got pregnant to begin with. :mad:
As someone else has said above I don't believe the Dems care about killing babies, they just know that they can get women to vote for them and so it is the only way to get elected and maintain power.
 
  • Like
Reactions: nail1988

fatman76

Bull Gator
Jun 15, 2007
6,529
12,873
113
I'm just going to cut to the chase here. Abortion is a wedge issue between the far left and far right. It's a political football. The issue is that the left wants to be able to snatch babies from the womb on delivery, no questions asked. Most people do not agree with that.

I may be going against the current here but I don't have issues with first trimester abortion, for many reasons. Health reasons for mother, known possible birth defects for the baby, rape, etc. The media tries to pigeon hole all pro life advocates being against women's rights. And that is bullshit, it might be the opinion of 5% of people but not the majority. The real problem is Suburban Karen's eating up the left's big lie. Butchering a baby that is essentially formed at 4 months is flat out murder, unless the mother's life is in danger. The GOP needs to disarm these assholes by taking away the bullshit "women's rights" argument and stop trying to prevent all abortions. Some are medically necessary, and an abortion pregnancy 3 weeks after detection isn't a hill to die on. There are far bigger issues, like the preservation of our our Constitutional Republic.

It's time to stop giving these pieces of shit ammo to lie to women that the GOP wants to control a woman's body. 95% of these fat,tranny looking rejects, I wonder how the hell these cretins got pregnant to begin with. :mad:
I’ve never understood the “women’s rights” angle when half of all abortions are females. What about those women’s right to live? What about human rights in general? A live birth abortion removes all rights.
 
Oct 1, 2012
30,144
39,155
113
I’ve never understood the “women’s rights” angle when half of all abortions are females. What about those women’s right to live? What about human rights in general? A live birth abortion removes all rights.
And the problem for me is how disingenuous the argument is from the left. The left's argument is presented as this being 'healthcare for the woman' (what about healthcare for the baby?). The left says the woman who is raped needs protection, the woman who would or may give birth to a child with defects needs protection, the woman that could put her own health at risk by giving birth needs protection.

Which are all valid points that many on all sides would be at least open to discussing or even accepting.

But that's not why the left wants abortion rights. At the end of the day, the left wants abortion rights because it wants the freedom to have unprotected sex and if pregnancy happens, they want an easy option to deal with that 'inconvenience'. We've even seen that on this board.

But if the left tells the truth about why it supports abortion, few would go along with that. So the left does what it always does, it reframes this as being a 'healthcare for the woman' issue.

Who would deny healthcare for the woman??? Sounds a lot better than asking 'Who would deny me the right to knock up any woman I want, then abort any baby that happens along the way?'
 

BCSpell

Gator Great
Gold Member
Dec 28, 2004
3,893
4,984
113
Bethesda, Maryland
Here is a question for the LEFT. They keep talking about rape, well, if you were raped and it resulted in pregnancy, WHY do you need 8 to 9 months or until the baby is born to abort it? WHY wouldn't you abort it AS SOON AS you found out? They have the day after pill now, why wouldn't you take one within a day of being raped? Or, if your trying to get pregnant with someone, as soon as a genecics test could proved the rapist was the father.
 

Dr. Curmudgeon

Bull Gator
Oct 17, 2018
5,629
9,552
113
Here is a question for the LEFT. They keep talking about rape, well, if you were raped and it resulted in pregnancy, WHY do you need 8 to 9 months or until the baby is born to abort it? WHY wouldn't you abort it AS SOON AS you found out? They have the day after pill now, why wouldn't you take one within a day of being raped? Or, if your trying to get pregnant with someone, as soon as a genecics test could proved the rapist was the father.
This^^^just another lie perpetrated by the left to deceive the public.
 

Capt Ron 1

Bull Gator
Gold Member
Nov 29, 2021
6,858
10,916
113
61
Fort Walton Bch, Fl
I'm just going to cut to the chase here. Abortion is a wedge issue between the far left and far right. It's a political football. The issue is that the left wants to be able to snatch babies from the womb on delivery, no questions asked. Most people do not agree with that.

I may be going against the current here but I don't have issues with first trimester abortion, for many reasons. Health reasons for mother, known possible birth defects for the baby, rape, etc. The media tries to pigeon hole all pro life advocates being against women's rights. And that is bullshit, it might be the opinion of 5% of people but not the majority. The real problem is Suburban Karen's eating up the left's big lie. Butchering a baby that is essentially formed at 4 months is flat out murder, unless the mother's life is in danger. The GOP needs to disarm these assholes by taking away the bullshit "women's rights" argument and stop trying to prevent all abortions. Some are medically necessary, and an abortion pregnancy 3 weeks after detection isn't a hill to die on. There are far bigger issues, like the preservation of our our Constitutional Republic.

It's time to stop giving these pieces of shit ammo to lie to women that the GOP wants to control a woman's body. 95% of these fat,tranny looking rejects, I wonder how the hell these cretins got pregnant to begin with. :mad:
Where I stand is I am personally against it...but do not think it is my right to push my beliefs on you, or anyone else.
 
  • Like
Reactions: goldmom

Capt Ron 1

Bull Gator
Gold Member
Nov 29, 2021
6,858
10,916
113
61
Fort Walton Bch, Fl
As someone else has said above I don't believe the Dems care about killing babies, they just know that they can get women to vote for them and so it is the only way to get elected and maintain power.
They care ZERO. ZERO about ILLEGAL ALIENS, ZERO about babies. ZERO about blacks. It is ALL about power, and agenda
 
  • Like
Reactions: BCSpell

fatman76

Bull Gator
Jun 15, 2007
6,529
12,873
113
And the problem for me is how disingenuous the argument is from the left. The left's argument is presented as this being 'healthcare for the woman' (what about healthcare for the baby?). The left says the woman who is raped needs protection, the woman who would or may give birth to a child with defects needs protection, the woman that could put her own health at risk by giving birth needs protection.

Which are all valid points that many on all sides would be at least open to discussing or even accepting.

But that's not why the left wants abortion rights. At the end of the day, the left wants abortion rights because it wants the freedom to have unprotected sex and if pregnancy happens, they want an easy option to deal with that 'inconvenience'. We've even seen that on this board.

But if the left tells the truth about why it supports abortion, few would go along with that. So the left does what it always does, it reframes this as being a 'healthcare for the woman' issue.

Who would deny healthcare for the woman??? Sounds a lot better than asking 'Who would deny me the right to knock up any woman I want, then abort any baby that happens along the way?'
I think it's more about depopulation than free sex.

We're almost 30% below the replacement rate in the US, China is close to 50% below.
 
Oct 1, 2012
30,144
39,155
113
Here is a question for the LEFT. They keep talking about rape, well, if you were raped and it resulted in pregnancy, WHY do you need 8 to 9 months or until the baby is born to abort it? WHY wouldn't you abort it AS SOON AS you found out? They have the day after pill now, why wouldn't you take one within a day of being raped? Or, if your trying to get pregnant with someone, as soon as a genecics test could proved the rapist was the father.
I have some sympathy for women in this case, especially a teenager who is raped and who becomes pregnant. The harsh reality is, if you take a teenage girl who is raped, whether she has the baby or not, her life could easily be ruined. Suicide is a real possibility either way.

But of course, the vast majority of abortions do NOT involve rape, they involve simple unprotected sex where the couple made an 'oopsie' and wants to undo their carelessness after the fact.
 

nothergator

Rowdy Reptile
Gold Member
Feb 4, 2004
1,475
1,268
113
All that they do is lie. I will go on record right here and now...the mid term results are going to be WAY, WAY worse for them than what is being reported.
I tend to agree with this outcome but I am not sure we have eliminated cheating.
 

jfegaly

Bull Gator
Feb 1, 2006
7,639
12,695
113
But but but.....KANSAS!!!!! Or something...
It will be interesting to see which side diddy takes. The liberal talking point of kansas, or a conservative site using a liberal poll against the liberal talking point.

we shall see…..

That said, this is the perfect example of why conservatives shouldn’t compromise. When conservatives get pressured by the media to compromise, conservatives lose (Romney, Mccain etc). When conservatives lead with conservative principles and with morals, they win. This is not difficult.
 

nail1988

Bull Gator
Jan 14, 2004
9,718
17,467
113
Regardless of what you feel about Abortion, and it is very clear that people on the board have a clear, moral perspective on it (which is good), it is not a compelling issue for the right. You see it in the polling, the ballot initiatives (Kansas) and then how candidates are reacting to it (read: Hershel W. and other examples below).

Conversely, it is almost the only thing that Democrats run on.

Compare that to Immigration, Debt, Inflation, Crime, Covid mandates, Afghanistan, CRT, etc. where the issues are SO clear and compelling. Conservatives/Republicans are hammering home the issue - mercilessly.

Further complicating things, as noted below, is that now people want a federal ban on abortion. So what is it? A "states rights" issue or should be a federal ban? They also hem and haw when pressed about the contradiction between vaccine mandates and being pro-life.

And the candidates who are in anything other than safe R districts? They are dodging or downplaying the issue - just as what happened in 2016-2017 on the ACA repeal.

Lisa hits this on the head around P - if just 3% of the woman's voted for Trump, he pulls the state. Trump - to his credit, knew this too:



(His campaign speech - in PA)

What republicans should be doing, if they really want to spend time here versus the other core issues above, is focusing on late trimester abortions and limiting that for the health of the mother. The baby can (almost always successfully) live outside the womb. Regardless of your religious or moral beliefs, that is a clear line. The woman has been pregnant for a long time - if a decision is to be made, ample time was in place to make it.

Finally, if Trump had his druthers, I am 90%+ sure, he would get government out of it. I believe he was pro-choice up through 2010 and at least 1999 when he was 53.

Should be interesting to see how this plays out in the polls this fall.


Author Headshot By Lisa Lerer
National Political Correspondent
Good morning. Republicans spent decades trying to end Roe, but the reality of banning abortion has become a burden on the party.​
fXkEadC9MRlx21bLu-n5WAHuRf8yKXex4kiyJtbrvbR_N1StO-mkMPzjIo-1R8QXHfONwBQr2ltYyN_bKKccfL5tq1uFauQ-m7cDMrKyhrmX8MIVf3GUJu0qv0Orvw197wzZjc7pi2IeY9yCK8D8scl__IYpIroDj9AmRruh3CMev4NR332K7zi7TGPDch0=s0-d-e1-ft
Anti-abortion campaigners outside the Supreme Court in June.Shuran Huang for The New York Times​

A new third rail​

For years, abortion was a straightforward rallying cry for Republicans, a way to identify with the cultural politics of their core supporters in one word: pro-life.​
But the Supreme Court’s decision to overturn Roe v. Wade plunged the party into a complicated reproductive reality, as I reported in this story that published this morning. The decision ended federal abortion rights, essentially forcing each state to legislate its own rules. After decades of fighting for that very outcome, when it finally happened, Republicans had no clear national message or unified policy.​
Almost immediately, Republican lawmakers were thrust into messy and emotional debates over some difficult issues: child rape, life-threatening medical complications from pregnancies and the devastating diagnoses of fetuses with rare and fatal conditions. As they debated, Republicans saw a once-easy way to energize their supporters transformed into a new third rail. And Democrats saw their fortunes rise in the midterms.​
Will that be enough for Democrats to keep control of Congress? Probably not. But the issue could be a deciding factor in some close races, particularly governors’ contests where the winners may determine abortion rights in their states.​

One question, many answers​

What do Republicans believe about abortion? It all depends on whom you ask. Abortion is one of the starkest areas of disagreement within the party right now.​
In Nevada, Joe Lombardo, the sheriff of the Las Vegas area who is running for governor, says he wouldn’t change state law, which currently allows abortion up to 24 weeks of a pregnancy — one of the latest limits in the country.​
jUdcj0qF9emJeyIDGyqK59owvpoyEMRi6ni3DaupzW3wlmu3NEuIjOJzytpsUR3nncYO1zThT_njd0FGmeUoGaO1nkIja5ACcOuQQ8G--U6jTR9k5sTLmLoVM6OevGLpWwTgsUjmEXELXBvORsI1cQEUyXHSgM1qqb1fCN92H1Cc=s0-d-e1-ft
Lindsey Graham proposed a 15-week federal abortion ban last month.Haiyun Jiang/The New York Times​
In the Senate, Lindsey Graham of South Carolina is pushing for a ban after 15 weeks of pregnancy, with exceptions for rape, incest and life of the mother. (Senator Mitch McConnell, the Republican majority leader, does not agree, and neither do a number of Republican colleagues.)​
In Michigan, Tudor Dixon, the Republican nominee for governor, would rather talk about something else, saying abortion “shouldn’t be an issue.”​
And in Maine, Paul LePage, a former governor and the Republican candidate for that office, seemed to dodge the question entirely. “I don’t know what you mean by 15 weeks or 28 weeks because I don’t know,” LePage said in a debate last week. “I’m not sure I understand the question.”​

How voters feel​

The big political problem with the strictest Republican position — total or near-total bans on abortion like those enacted in at least 13 states — is that it’s simply unpopular.​
Public opinion on abortion is notoriously hard to measure because so much of how voters view the issue depends on how surveys frame their questions. But there are a few clear data points. A majority of voters disagree with the Supreme Court’s decision to overturn Roe, saying they support a federal right to an abortion. Similarly, in a recent New York Times/Siena College poll, 62 percent of Americans said they favored abortion access in either all or most circumstances. At the same time, most voters also support some restrictions starting as women enter the second trimester of pregnancy.​
Part of what has made these questions particularly salient in the 2022 midterms is how they are embedding in the lives of female voters. From the time they get their first period to menopause, most women have an inescapable monthly clock that they discuss mostly with other women. Many of those discussions revolve around pregnancy, which for most of human history was commonly a high-risk, if not fatal, condition.​
The intimacy of the issue raises its political intensity for 50.5 percent of the population — and the even bigger percentage of women who make up the typical midterm electorate. Small changes in this group can cause big political outcomes. As Elaine Kamarck at the Brookings Institution points out, a shift of less than 3 percent of the women’s votes in Pennsylvania in 2020 could have flipped the state to Donald Trump.​

November and beyond​

Whatever happens in the midterms, Republicans are not escaping this issue. Activists in both political parties are bracing for a decades-long fight over the future of abortion rights.​
If Republicans win control of Congress, they will face pressure to embrace national abortion bans from social conservatives who see the court’s decision as the beginning of restrictions. That position, of course, contradicts nearly a half-century of Republican Party ideology arguing for abortion laws to return to the states.​
And then there’s the matter of the 2024 presidential primary. It’s easy to imagine a debate stage where Republican candidates are pressed for details about their positions on issues like exceptions for rape, life-threatening ectopic pregnancies and when, exactly, a fetus should be considered a person. We’re already seeing those kinds of questions being asked in midterm debates for Senate and governor.​
In the post-Roe world, just being “pro-life” doesn’t quite cut it for Republican politicians.​

@grandhavendiddy wont like the #fakenews Ny slims poll

@RayGravesGhost @BSC911 @kalimgoodman

( if you dig deep independent women in June RATS had a 13
point lead/ now the GOP hold a 18 point lead with the Indy women) Latinos fleeing to the GOP

It ain’t about abortion people😎


A New York Times/Siena College poll out Monday has attracted media attention for affirming the argument that the economy trumps abortion when it comes to voters' priorities.


Media react to New York Times poll's bad news for Democrats: 'It's the economy, stupid'​

A NYT/Siena College poll found independent female voters swung dramatically to the right in the past month​





 
Last edited:

grandhavendiddy

Gator Great
Gold Member
Feb 3, 2007
4,237
2,914
113
Nail - if it turns out that Roevember is not a thing and that the Republicans take control of the house and senate, then great. It's still a bad issue for the Republicans. I saw Hershel Walker's interview tonight on NBC. He has Warnock on most every issue, but when asked about paying for his girlfriend's abortion, he hemmed, hawed and said that "I don't remember what it was for".

We have been on these boards (football, let alone this one) to know exactly what it was for.

If he said, that "she was 5 weeks pregnant and asked for an abortion, well within Lindsey G's 15 week timeframe" then great, that's consistent. His answer was not compelling - at all, and will be watched in key swing GA districts.

I think his is the race to watch. If he wins the race, then clearly Abortion is not that important. I am pro-choice (meaning, I want government out of it), but there is no reasonable way to argue otherwise.
 

jfegaly

Bull Gator
Feb 1, 2006
7,639
12,695
113
Nail - if it turns out that Roevember is not a thing and that the Republicans take control of the house and senate, then great. It's still a bad issue for the Republicans. I saw Hershel Walker's interview tonight on NBC. He has Warnock on most every issue, but when asked about paying for his girlfriend's abortion, he hemmed, hawed and said that "I don't remember what it was for".

We have been on these boards (football, let alone this one) to know exactly what it was for.

If he said, that "she was 5 weeks pregnant and asked for an abortion, well within Lindsey G's 15 week timeframe" then great, that's consistent. His answer was not compelling - at all, and will be watched in key swing GA districts.

I think his is the race to watch. If he wins the race, then clearly Abortion is not that important. I am pro-choice (meaning, I want government out of it), but there is no reasonable way to argue otherwise.
So, you want adults to get two choices, (first the choice to have sex, then the choice to murder because their first choice was a bad one), and the baby to get no choice.

Using the term pro choice is a fallacy. The Choice was already made, and no one took it away. Unfortunately, choices have consequences. At least they should, but dems want a world with no consequences for actions. It’s why we are where we are today, and people can’t figure out why crime is rising? Come on man. You want your cake and to eat it, while the baby doesn’t even get a choice at all.

No wonder America is faltering.